Today's Three Things: The Bottom of the Order Blasts Atlanta to a Win
The Atlanta Braves rode a piggyback strategy and the bottom of the lineup to a lead in the series
Four pitchers combined to allow one hit as the Atlanta Braves bashed their way to a 5-2 win over the Chicago Cubs in Truist Park on Tuesday night.
Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.
The Turning Point
Offensively, it was the bottom of the fifth.
Trailing 2-1, Atlanta needed to put pressure on Cubs starter Colin Rea. Austin Riley did that immediately, tying the game with a solo homer to left-center on the first pitch he saw.
Atlanta wasn’t finished, though; Dom Smith singled on the first pitch and then cruised home on a home run by Mike Yastremski (more on that in a moment). Drake Baldwin then doubled, again on the first pitch, before scoring on a Matt Olson single that was ROCKETED off of the first baseman’s glove and into left.
The bottom of Atlanta’s order gave the team multiple opportunities to score. The final four batters in the lineup went a combined 8-14 with two homers, four runs, and four RBI. All four of them reached base at least once, although Ha-Seong Kim was hitless and only reached via walk.
Today’s Player of the Game
Mike Yastrzemski won this by popular vote of the postcast.
His home run was a good piece of hitting. It came on the seventh pitch of the at-bat, but he successfully laid off several pitches out of the zone to work the count full. His homer, the first of the season for Yaz, then came off of a hanging slider, with Yaz depositing it into the Chop House.
His third-inning single was similar - coming on the fifth pitch, he didn’t chase the two pitches out of the zone and jumped on a center-cut fastball.
Yaz also contributed an impressive catch on a 105.7 mph liner to deep right field in the 2nd inning, tailing towards the corner, that had a 67% hit probability.
The hope is that the big night for Yastrzemski can kickstart his season. To think that Atlanta’s offense has been so good largely without Yastrzemski and Austin Riley bodes well for their ability to maintain their NL East lead if those two can get going.
What You’ll Be Talking About
Imagine if I told you before the game started that we would have to come from behind in a game in which Grant Holmes, Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias threw a combined one-hitter.
But we did, and it’s important to talk about the front end of that night on the mound.
Grant Holmes continues to look virtually incapable of navigating a lineup the second time. The first time through the order, Holmes faced only one over the minimum, working around a two-out walk in the second inning. He struck out three, induced three groundballs, and had eight whiffs with a 35% CSW.
But the second time through was almost entirely the fourth inning, and it went significantly worse. He allowed two runs on one hit and three walks, striking out two, inducing only one groundout, and picking up just three whiffs with a 17% CSW. After taking 38 pitches for the first three innings, Holmes needed 39 for the fourth inning, and his night was over.
It’s not really evident why, either. His sequencing was largely the same in the second time through the order as it was in the first - slightly fewer four-seamers and slightly more changeups - but that change wasn’t significant enough to explain the significant decrease in his results.
It seems fairly evident why the Braves were transitioning Holmes back into more of the ‘utility pitcher’ role he mastered in 2024, and it’s this right here. As a spot starter, Holmes can be deployed for four or five innings, and you’re happy he made it through the outing with the team still in the game. But this lack of length doesn’t work for a traditional starter. It worked tonight because the team got three clean innings out of Didier Fuentes as a piggyback to Holmes, but using two bulk pitchers in one game is a bit of a struggle when the team’s trying to run a six-man rotation at the moment during this two-week stretch without an off day.
Looking for more discussion about this game?
Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.
What’s Next for the Braves?
The Braves are facing their toughest test of the series. Lefty Shota Imanaga (4-2, 2.28) gets the ball opposite youngster JR Ritchie (1-0, 3.63) at 7:15 PM ET.
While it worked tonight, the Holmes/Fuentes piggyback, this is not long term sustainable without overtaxing your bullpen. All it takes is one of your other starters getting blown up and you're screwed, not just for that game, but it potentially leaves the pen short for the rest of the series.
At this point, I would describe the Braves rotation as "fragile." Who do you have faith in at this point? I believe in Sale. I think Elder is for real and not fool's gold. I *HOPE* the Strider we saw in LA is the Strider we get going forward, but am I confident in that? No, it's been two starts. One in Coors that was bad and one in LA that was vintage Strider. It is fair to say the jury is still out on him. Ritchie is a rookie who is finding his way. He may be one or two starts from solidifying his spot in the rotation or one or two starts from being back in Gwinnett. I think it's fair to say that Martin Perez has exceeded expectations so far this season, but do I have confidence that will continue? Not a lot, TBH. With ReLo being largely ineffective and having been banished to the bullpen with either mechanical problems or an as of yet undisclosed injury and piggybacking Holmes/Fuentes, the Braves rotation is, in my opinion, very fragile at this point.
Can it get better when Waldrep comes back? Yes, but there will be a ramp up and there is no way to know what we're going to get until he comes back and proves he is the same guy that was shoving before he got hurt.
I think that ANYTHING you get from Schwelly and AJSS this season is just gravy and should not be counted on.
The fact the Braves have the best record in baseball with a rotation that is tissue paper thin is an absolute testament to how good the bullpen and the offense has been to this point in the season, IMO.