What If The Braves Lose Spencer Strider Again?
As Atlanta waits for answers from Dr. Keith Meister, the organization may be forced to confront an uncomfortable reality.
No one visits a surgeon expecting to hear they don’t need surgery.
For Atlanta Braves fans, that’s exactly what they’re hoping for this week.
Spencer Strider is headed to Dallas for an evaluation with Dr. Keith Meister, the orthopedic surgeon who performed his internal brace procedure in 2024 and has become the Braves’ trusted specialist for elbow injuries. The visit comes after Strider’s fastball velocity suddenly cratered against the Mets, leading to an injured list stint and immediate concern about the health of Atlanta’s ace.
Now the Braves wait.
And while everyone awaits answers from Dr. Meister, Atlanta has an uncomfortable question to consider:
What happens if Spencer Strider misses significant time?
Let’s talk about it.
Surgery’s not a guarantee…yet
Let’s clear something up - while it’s not a good thing that Strider is flying to Dallas to see Dr. Meister, it’s not a foregone conclusion that the righthander will need season-ending surgery.
Let’s rewind back to 2024. Reigning National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. tweaked his right knee, the same one that he tore the ACL in back in 2021.
And so, after being evaluated by team doctors, Ronald did what many recent surgery patients do - got a second opinion from the person who knew the knee best: Dr. Neil El Attrache in Los Angeles, who completed the ACL repair in 2021.
Dr. El Attrache confirmed Atlanta’s diagnosis, that there was inflammation present around the meniscus, but that he was in no danger of long-term damage and would be ready for Opening Day. And Ronald was, being in the lineup on Opening Day and playing through late May until tearing the other ACL in a rundown against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
It’s entirely possible that Atlanta’s doctors feel like the UCL escaped major damage from the MRI, but want the surgeon who has most recently seen the ligament to confirm.
Unlikely, I’d argue, but possible.
And similarly unlikely is Strider’s return to the majors if he does, in fact, need another UCL reconstruction.
Coming back from a 2nd Tommy John surgery, which is commonly referred to as a “revision”, is already rare, and the Braves have examples on both sides. Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, who both debuted in the late 2000s for Atlanta, both had a second procedure just a few years after their first and were never the same, eventually retiring just three (Medlen) and two (Beachy) years later.
There are success stories, including starters like Jacob DeGrom, Shohei Ohtani, and Nathan Eovaldi, as well as former Braves reliever Peter Moylan.
But when you add a third procedure in the mix, it becomes a lot less likely. The only two notable success stories in MLB are Jonny Venters and Tejay Antone, who both needed a third procedure soon after their second but eventually made a return to the majors.
The difference for Strider is, unfortunately, the order - there’s not a single instance in Jon Rogele’s Tommy John surgery database of a pitcher having three elbow surgeries and the second being the internal brace instead of a standard Tommy John.
In standard Tommy John surgery, a tendon graft is taken from the patient’s forearm or hamstring (or occasionally, a cadaver) and woven through ‘tunnels’ that are drilled through the patient’s upper and lower arm bones. The actual UCL is minuscule, roughly 1.5 to 3.0 centimeters in length and 4 to 7 millimeters in width. The much larger tendon graft is woven through the tunnels and secured to the surface of the bone to recreate the stability of the now-torn UCL, providing more surface area and material to transfer the stresses generated by pitching.
But the internal brace is different. Created by Arthrex, the InternalBrace™ is designed to augment a primary repair/reconstruction by providing an artificial structure in the elbow that anchors soft-tissue-to-bone (instead of the standard bone-to-bone of a conventional Tommy John repair). It allows for a quicker return to play because there’s an artificial structure remaining in the elbow that can help take the stresses that would normally only be on the UCL.
Strider is one of the only pitchers I can find who would be getting standard Tommy John surgery after receiving an internal brace, if that’s the direction that Dr. Meister eventually takes the righty. Complete uncharted territory.
The immediate replacement in the rotation
The Braves brought prospect JR Ritchie back up to the majors early last week, designating him for bullpen work. He, coincidentally, entered the game on Friday night after Strider left and pitched the final five innings.
Manager Walt Weiss indicated over the weekend that Ritchie will slide right into Strider’s spot in the rotation, given that he’s already stretched out from remaining in a starting role for Triple-A Gwinnett after being optioned down in mid-May.
The question will be his effectiveness in the rotation - Ritchie’s struggled to miss bats in his brief MLB tenure, sitting at a 28th percentile 22.2% in whiff rate, and wasn’t much better on Friday at just 24% (8 of 22 swings). In another concerning trend, New York’s average exit velocity on their batted balls was 94.8 mph, perilously close to averaging a hard-hit ball.
This will set up Atlanta’s rotation to look like this going forward, projecting roles for each starter based on effectiveness this season:
Chris Sale
Bryce Elder
Martín Pérez
Grant Holmes
JR Ritchie
And after the results of this weekend, where Pérez allowed one run in 5.1 innings, followed by Elder being tagged for six runs in just four innings, several are suggesting flipping the two in the rotation’s “Tree of Trust”.
But with the questions about everyone outside of Sale - the sustainability of Elder and Pérez amid underwhelming Stuff, Holmes’ documented issues with the second time through the order, and Ritchie’s struggles with walks and missing bats - it’s clear the Braves will need more rotation reinforcements for the rest of the season.
There are options in Gwinnett
The Braves have two prominent rotation options in Gwinnett, both in different stages of their development.
Hurston Waldrep has officially returned from his ‘loose bodies’ elbow surgery, completing a four-inning rehab start for Double-A Columbus last week and then being activated and optioned to Gwinnett.
Waldrep was electric down the stretch last season, owing to his embrace of the multiple-fastball approach, putting up a 2.88 ERA across 56.1 innings with 55 strikeouts and only three homers allowed.
He’s clearly not ready for a regular role, with his third and final rehab start being only four innings and all of his damage allowed being in that final frame, but he projects to finish his ‘spring training’ after a few outings and could be ready to return to the majors at that time.
The other option is prospect Owen Murphy, who has yet to be added to the 40-man roster. That fact will likely keep him in the minors for a bit longer, but the youngster has traits that make him potentially able to succeed in the majors almost immediately, most notably his fastball.
The four-seamer averages ‘only’ 92.3 mph so far in AAA, but with an absurd 18.5 inches of induced vertical break that has him among the league’s elite for starting pitchers.
He’s coming off of his most dominant start for Gwinnett, allowing just one earned run on three hits across six innings with a season-high ten strikeouts. Carrying a six-pitch mix, including all three fastballs, both a slider and a curveball, as well as an offspeed in the changeup, he’s similarly equipped to immediately survive at the major league level owing to the polish and outlier characteristics of the four-seamer.
A 40-man roster move would be required to add Murphy, but if Strider is expected to miss the remainder of the season after elbow surgery, moving him to the 60-day injured list would only be a formality.
Other promotions out of Gwinnett could eventually include RHPs Garrett Baumann and Victor Mederos (already on the 40-man), as well as MLB veteran starters Austin Gomber, Elieser Hernández, and Carlos Carrasco (once he re-signs a new minor league deal).
Injured starters AJ Smith-Shawver, who is starting rehab soon, and Spencer Schwellenbach, who has begun a throwing program, would be nice additions in the second half but likely can’t be counted on for meaningful innings due to their uncertain status as they return from injury.
Outside trade targets
I’ve previously argued in this space that the Braves need to aggressively target a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm via trade this summer, identifying Jacob deGrom as my top target. While the need for someone to slot in behind Chris Sale in a postseason rotation still exists, from the outside, it feels like the threshold for a rotation addition might be a bit lower.
(That being said, it also felt that way during spring training, and the Braves stood pat.)
Someone who can reliably take the ball every fifth day as a mid-rotation starter would theoretically be a welcome fit for Atlanta, and a new name we’d previously suggested has been getting a lot of traction recently: Logan Webb.
The San Francisco Giants righty just returned from the injured list two weeks ago from a knee issue and has been electric since being activated: two earned runs in 19.1 innings pitched, including outings of seven (scoreless) innings and eight innings (with one run allowed) his last two times out.
Webb also has a history of reliably posting. He’s pitched 190 innings or more in each of the last four, including three consecutive years of league-leading 200+ inning counts. He finished that four-year stretch with an ERA+ of 124, so it wasn’t empty innings, either.
He has two additional years of team control after this season, costing $23M and $24M, as well as a one-time trade assignment bonus of $1M. Most notably, he does not have either a given no-trade clause or an earned one (through 10-5 rights).
Other controllable options include Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins and Michael Wacha of the Kansas City Royals.
The Bigger Problem
The uncomfortable reality for Atlanta is that this conversation existed before Strider’s injury scare.
The Braves entered the season expecting Spencer Strider to return from elbow surgery and immediately reclaim his place atop the rotation. They expected Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep to emerge as long-term fixtures. They expected Chris Sale to continue pitching like a Cy Young candidate.
Only one of those assumptions currently looks secure.
Sale has been magnificent, but every other member of Atlanta’s projected postseason rotation either is injured, returning from injury, or carrying significant question marks.
That’s what makes the coming days so important.
If Dr. Meister delivers good news and Strider returns after a relatively short absence, the Braves still need rotation help. The urgency simply becomes less severe.
If the news is worse, Atlanta’s deadline calculus changes entirely.
The conversation is no longer about finding another frontline starter to pair with Sale.
It’s about rebuilding an entire playoff rotation.
That reality is why Alex Anthopoulos and his staff hopefully have multiple contingency plans already in motion, evaluating trade targets, monitoring internal options, and preparing for outcomes that range from a minor setback to a potentially career-altering injury.
I hope.
Because until Dr. Meister provides answers, nobody really knows what comes next.
The best outcome for Atlanta is that this entire discussion becomes irrelevant by next week.
But until then, the Braves are waiting.