What’s Really Behind the Braves’ Early ABS Struggles
Heavy usage and poor timing - not just bad decisions - are driving the results
One of the biggest changes in Major League Baseball this season has been the introduction of the Automated Balls and Strikes challenge system. Just two weeks into the season, it’s already a familiar sight: The umpire makes a call of a ball or strike, and someone involved in the play, either a batter or the catcher (rarely the pitcher), taps their helmet because they disagree with the umpire’s judgment call. The umpire announces the challenge and attention shifts to the stadium’s video board, where the disagreement is resolved within seconds.
It’s been heralded as a much-needed improvement in an area of baseball that provided frustration and consternation in years past, and it’s already delivered some fantastic moments: Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez challenging back-to-back strike three calls from home plate umpire C.B. Bucknor, winning both. (Bucknor would be overturned six times in that game, still the record this season for the single-most overturned calls in one game.) The Orioles ‘walking off’ a win via an ABS challenge that converted a ball call into a game-ending strikeout. Minnesota’s Matt Wallner unsuccessfully challenging a strike call on a pitch nearly five inches off the zone.
Several teams have gotten momentum swings from their successful challenges. But for the Braves, it’s been mostly perceived as a negative, with Atlanta being one of the worst teams at calling for challenges in all of MLB. Why, and is it fixable? Let’s talk about it.
How bad have they been?
Like a lot of things in MLB right now, it helps that the Colorado Rockies still exist when it comes to statistical “accomplishments.”
Atlanta’s offense is 29th in MLB for ABS overturns versus what would be expected, based on Statcast’s new ABS success dashboard. Through thirteen games, Atlanta has seen 3.6 fewer overturns than expected, based on what MLB calculates as a “reasonable” challenge opportunity.
But there’s an important distinction here: fewer overturns doesn’t automatically mean they’ve been bad at it.
