Which Corner Will the Braves Cut This Offseason?

If Atlanta tries to fix every hole in free agency, something’s got to give...but where?

The Atlanta Braves have a shopping list this winter: A frontline starter, multiple pieces in the bullpen (including a closer), a shortstop, and one other offensive piece to add to the roster.

It looks like they have plenty of funds to spend on those additions, as well; despite lower attendance in quarter three, Atlanta Braves Holdings made more money than the same time period last year, prompting chairman Terry McGuirk to tell participants of the team’s investor call that his expectation was getting the team to a “top-five payroll”.

But in that same investor call, McGuirk also said that the team would be active on both the free agency and the trade front. And I think that’s important; whether they have $50-55M to spend (which would get them to a top five payroll figure going off of this last season’s payroll) or $85-90M, which would mirror their franchise-high 2024 payroll, it’s still unlikely that they can fill every single need with a top-tier starter if they do it only via free agency.

Excluding trades, let’s talk about each possible corner that could be cut and determine the pros and cons of such a route (and possible scenarios) before deciding what the team should do.

Ground rules: First, we’re not going to allow Atlanta to sign more than one qualifying offer player. While it’s uncertain if the Braves will attempt that at all - it’s happened only one time in AA’s Atlanta tenure - this is the offseason to do it, so we’ll give him that. Second, we’ll stick with the $55M projection, which would come in around 5th in the league. All contract figures will come from Jon Becker’s composite predictions, which combine nine discrete industry predictions into one median calculation for each free agent)

Can’t cut corners in the bullpen AGAIN, right?

The reason that I’m automatically ruling out the bullpen as an option to cut a corner is that we’ve seen this movie, and it wasn’t a good one. The Braves lost several key contributors from MLB’s third-best bullpen in 2024 (as measured by ERA) in lefty setup man A.J. Minter (free agency), righty setup man Joe Jiménez (injury), ‘utility pitcher’ Grant Holmes (rotation), and veteran Jesse Chavez (old). That quartet combined for 234.2 innings and an ERA of just over 3.00.

And last winter, the Braves signed exactly zero Major League deals to replace them. Instead, the team brought in fifteen relievers on minor league deals, with several of them not making it out of spring training (Buck Farmer, Jake Diekman) and none of the rest still being on the roster by game 162. After a 3.32 ERA in 2024, Atlanta’s pen had a 4.19 mark in 2025, falling from 3rd-best (by ERA) and 2nd-best by bWAR (3.8) to 19th by ERA and 22nd by WAR (-2.6).

And after losing that quartet of arms for 2025, the Braves are faced with a similar open hole in their armbarn for the upcoming season. Closer Raisel Iglesias is a free agent, while the club options on both Pierce Johnson and trade deadline acquisition Tyler Kinley were declined. Unfortunately, Joe Jiménez will potentially be on this list for a second straight offseason after suffering a setback in his return from knee surgery. Alex Anthopoulos told 680 The Fan last week that after Jiménez was shut down with knee pain in August, the reliever eventually needed a second procedure on his knee and the team would evaluate his 2026 availability in January.

It’s clear that the Braves need to sign at least two relievers this winter, with one being a closer. With the news that Raisel Iglesias is both open to a reunion and looking for a two-year deal, that makes the most sense for a potential closer, but the team would still need at least a second proven leverage arm, if not a third.

Let’s hope the team learned its lesson here and looks at the other options for the Braves.

Cut the corner at shortstop, splurge on a starter

With the caveat that Anthopoulos has said that shortstop is one of the biggest needs for the team this winter, it’s easy to see how the team could choose to cut this corner because they’ve done it before. Ever since Dansby Swanson left after the 2022 season to sign his massive deal with the Chicago Cubs, the plan for Atlanta has been to bat the shortstop 9th and hope the rest of the lineup hit around them.

It worked marginally well in 2023, with surprise All-Star Orlando Arcia hitting .294 in the season’s first half and .264 overall before becoming a disaster. Atlanta’s shortstops in the last two seasons, predominantly either Arcia (2024) and Nick Allen (2025), combined to hit .219 with twenty homeruns against 262 strikeouts.

But as poorly as the shortstop results were at the plate in 2024, they were even worse last season. Nick Allen, despite actually legitimately being a defensive wizard, hit just .221 with a .535 OPS. His OPS+ of 53 was the lowest of any player with 400 or more plate appearances on the season.

If Atlanta wants to upgrade in free agency, it really comes down to two names: Ha-Seong Kim or Bo Bichette. We’ve discussed both Kim and Bichette in the past, but this is the scenario where the Braves cut that corner. Let’s look at what that winter could look like if they stand pat with Allen at short and redirect their free agency money elsewhere.

SP: Dylan Cease (QO; 6/$168M = $28M AAV)
Closer: Raisel Iglesias (2/$24M = $12M AAV)
Set-up: Shawn Armstrong (1/$8M = $8M AAV)
Bat: Miguel Andujar (2/$14M = $7M AAV)
Total = $55M AAV

That’s a frontline starter in Cease, one that made 30+ starts for the fifth consecutive season (and is a local boy, to boot), as well as bringing back Iglesias. Iggy is paired with former Rangers arm Shawn Armstrong, who throws four pitches (including all three fastballs, a preference of new pitching coach Jeremy Hafner’s) and can switch between roles, having made spot starts, worked multiple innings, and even taken the save situations when needed. The final addition here is platoon slugger Miguel Andujar, who hit .389 against lefties last season (career .297 average vs southpaws) and has experience not only in left field (169 games), but also third base (185 games), right field (21 games), and even first base (seven games).

In this scenario, catcher Drake Baldwin would be the designated hitter against righties and behind the plate against lefties, with Andujar slotting in either at DH or one of the corner outfield spots while either Jurickson Profar or Ronald Acuña Jr. rotates in at DH.

Cut a corner at starter, splurge on a bat

To be clear, I don’t think ‘cut a corner at starter’ means 'don’t sign a starter at all.’ I just think it means someone who is there to eat innings and get you to October, not someone who is meant to be one of your starters in the postseason.

In this scenario, I’m targeting a backend arm with a history of stacking innings and starts, ideally getting 30 starts and 165 or so innings from this veteran. The goal here is to ride this guy every fifth day, skipping and/or pushing back the rest of the rotation so that they can be healthy and fresh for the playoffs.

The problem here is that innings cost money. As Alex Anthopoulos has pointed out, innings have a price and even marginal starters can get double-digit millions simply because of the workload they can cover for you. So we’re going to cheat a bit with our selections here.

SP: Chris Bassitt (2/$36M = $18M AAV)
SS: Bo Bichette (QO; 7/$203M = $29M AAV)
Closer: Pete Fairbanks (2/$19M = $9.5M AAV)
Set-up: Grant Holmes (league minimum)
Bat: N/A
Total = $56.5M AAV in new money

My ‘cheating’ here is not adding another offensive threat, letting the signing at shortstop of Bichette also cover the addition of a bat. Obviously, this means that Atlanta’s path to getting Profar and/or Acuña off their feet with a ‘half-day’ at designated hitter once a week needs to come from within the organization; it’s likely going to end up being Eli White, barring some sort of last minute add in spring training (like the Adam Duvall signing late in 2024’s Grapefruit League slate).

There are a few more assumptions needed here to make this work. First, the health matters - the Braves need the outfielders to stay healthy or else they’re playing Eli White on an everyday basis out there. The health of the rotation matters, too; multiple injuries could both jeopardize the plan of having three playoff starters healthy come October, but could also force Grant Holmes from his ‘utility’ pitcher role back into the rotation. They also need both catchers to hit, as Baldwin and Murphy are taking the bulk of the playing time and so the bench will need to have a third catcher.

Cut a corner with the bat

When Anthopoulos held his end-of-season media availability, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman asked him point-blank whether right-handed hitting outfielder was on the same tier of needs as shortstop, starter, and the bullpen.

Anthopoulos outright said it wasn’t. “So, right-handed hitting outfielder is not something that’s a front burner for us. I mean, being candid. Maybe as we’re going through the winter, that does become (one), but at this time it’s not a front-burner thing for us.”

So, let’s take him at his word here. We’ll look at the same needs, but cutting the obvious corner of the team’s fourth need in favor of taking care of one through three.

SS: Ha-Seong Kim (2/$26M = $13M AAV)
SP: Michael King (QO; 3/$75M = $25M AAV)
Closer: Kenley Jansen (1/$11M = $11M AAV)
Set-up: Jose Leclerc (1/$4M = $4M AAV)
Bat: Lane Thomas (1/$4M = $4M AAV)
Total: $57M AAV

Honestly, there are other closers I like more than signing up for the Kenley Jansen Experience 2: Electric Boogaloo, but I decided halfway through not to repeat any player. Ryan Helsley is predicted for just slightly more money, so if you’re cool stretching to $58M or so, he’d be an option and Iglesias is just a million more than Helsley. Kyle Finnegan’s slightly less than Jansen, if you want to treat the $55M as a hard limit)

This scenario really illustrates the advantage of signing Kim over Bichette - while I personally think 2/$26M for Kim feels rather low, it’s infinitely better than seven years of nearly $30M each year for Bichette. Saving some money there allows Atlanta to still got a Qualifying Offer pitcher in Michael King, provided the medicals work out (the giant caveat we discussed last week), as well as bring in two relievers to hopefully pair with Jiménez in the backend. Lane Thomas, despite being somewhat terrible for the Guardians last season, is a career .292 hitter against lefties and can not only cover centerfield if needed, but would also provide a boost of baserunning acumen for new first base coach Antoan Richardson to work with.

Which path does Atlanta take?

See how relying on just free agency to shore up all of the roster’s weak spots is a losing proposition? I’m firmly of the opinion that there will be a few factors that determine what direction the Braves go this winter with their signings. In order:

1. How much does it cost to upgrade shortstop? - The Braves arguably can’t do much of anything until they know this number. Is it $13M AAV for Kim? $29M AAV for Bichette? Or some yet-to-be-negotiated number when they solve it via trade?

2. Are they willing to pop a Qualifying Offer? - The list of Qualifying Offer players includes a lot of the most impactful starters, so adding to the rotation via free agency, if the team truly is looking for a postseason-caliber addition, likely requires giving up a draft pick.

3. What is out there on the trade market? - We talked about a few weeks back, but making a trade might either be the solution to solve shortstop or to add a starter and a bat in a package deal.

There are plenty of roads Atlanta can take in free agency this winter. Unless they’re wheeling and dealing, though, they won’t be able to travel them all.