Who's Next? These Three Braves Pitching Prospects Could Join the Rotation

Atlanta needs rotation help — and Gwinnett just welcomed three new arms.

Over the past two seasons, the Atlanta Braves have quietly had the best pitching staff in baseball.

Since the start of 2024, Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA, best in all of baseball and narrowly edging out the Seattle Mariners at 3.64. It’s a massive reason why Atlanta was able to squeak into the postseason last year despite significant injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Per OptaStats, the 2024 Atlanta Braves were the first team in MLB history to make the postseason in a year where three of their Opening Day starters (Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Austin Riley) all missed the final 35+ regular season games plus the postseason while on the injured list.

But that advantage is gone. Four different Braves starters from the Opening Day are on the injured list, and at least one of them isn’t coming back this year:

• Reynaldo López, 04/29/2025 (shoulder surgery) - could return in September

• AJ Smith-Shawver, 05/29/2025 (torn UCL) - not returning until 2027, most likely

• Chris Sale, 06/19/2025 (fractured ribcage) - possible return in late August

• Spencer Schwellenbach, 06/29/2025 (elbow fracture) - possible return in late September

The Braves are currently running with three starters in Grant Holmes, Spencer Strider, and Bryce Elder. This weekend’s rotation for the homestand versus the New York Yankees illustrates the problems with Atlanta’s pitching depth at the moment:

Fri: Spencer Strider
Sat: TBD
Sun: TBD

Not quite “Spahn, Sain, and pray for rain”, but close enough.

(UPDATE: After this newsletter was submitted for publication, the Braves named Joey Wentz and Grant Holmes as starters for Saturday and Sunday, respectively.)

However, there are three prospects in Gwinnett that I expect to get starts down the stretch for the Braves. Let’s break them down.

Ritchie’s the newest

Fresh off of his Futures Game start for the National League team, RHP JR Ritchie was promoted to Gwinnett and makes his Triple-A debut on Saturday.

Ritchie, taken with the 35th overall pick in 2022 and given an overslot $2.4M bonus, has been one of Atlanta’s best performers in the minors this year. Making fifteen starts combined between High-A Rome and Double-A Columbus, Ritchie’s gone 5-4 with a 2.46 ERA, striking out 79 in his 80.1 innings with 27 walks and seven homers allowed.

Ritchie brings a true ‘kitchen sink’ approach - in the Futures Game, he showed off five pitches: Changeup, Curveball, a Sweeper, and both Four-Seamer (96.3 mph) and Sinkers for fastballs.

To do to earn a debut: Ritchie’s more vulnerable to lefties than he is righties, which makes sense if his best pitches are a changeup and a sweeper. Lefties have hit .182 with a .357 slug off of Ritchie, hitting all seven homers that Ritchie’s given up this season. (By contrast, righties are hitting .158 with a .195 slug, hitting only five doubles in 145 PAs.)

Earliest ETA: Mid-August

Waldrep’s already on the 40-man

Hurston Waldrep made two disastrous starts for the Braves last season, allowing thirteen runs in seven innings on nine hits and eight walks. Those struggles carried over into this season, with Waldrep pitching to a 7.04 ERA in his first six starts for Gwinnett. He walked 18 in that stretch against just 21 strikeouts, throwing only 56% strikes. His last start of that span was particularly egregious, one where he allowed three runs on two hits and three walks in just two-thirds of an inning, ultimately being pulled before finishing the first frame of the game.

That prompted mechanical changes, and since then, the results have been much better: A 4.13 ERA in his next 11 starts, walking just 28 against 58 strikeouts. Improved fastball command finally let him use it to set up the slider and splitter for chase, as the baseball gods intended, rather than needing to throw them in the zone to get back into counts.

While he’s had one notable stumble, allowing six runs on two hits and four walks in one inning against Nashville in early June, he’s otherwise been much more reliable. In those other ten outings, he’s finished at least the fifth inning every single time, pitching into the sixth inning on eight occasions and having more strikeouts than walks in each of the ten starts.

Being already on the 40-man roster means that Waldrep’s the easiest to give a spot start to, and it’s something I expect the Braves to do sooner rather than later. And if you think about it, now’s the perfect time for it. Atlanta is almost certainly not making the postseason this year, but they’ll need to identify which prospect pitchers can be added to the starting depth pool for the major league team next season. With AJ Smith-Shawver unavailable until (most likely) the start of 2027, the Braves will need another starter during the season.

Thinking Ahead to 2026: The Braves have used between 10 and 13 standard starters in each season from 2021-2024. Looking forward to next season, the Braves should return Sale, Strider, Schwellenbach, López (unless he moves to the bullpen), Holmes, Elder, and then a group of prospects. Dider Fuentes leads a group of prospects in Gwinnett that could be in the mix next year, but we can’t even identify the seven stretched-out starters that Atlanta’s always looking to bring to spring training at the moment.
UPDATE: After this newsletter was scheduled for publication, the Atlanta Braves acquired right-hander Dane Dunning from the Texas Rangers in a trade. He’s controllable through 2026 and may be in the starting mix next year.

To do to earn a debut: Continue throwing strikes and throw more splitters, which might work in opposition to each other. In the last five games, he’s sitting at 64% strikes. He’s also thrown only 16.3% splitters during that stretch, per Statcast. It’s his best whiff pitch, but he’s clearly been asked to work on his slider, which he’s thrown technically more (35.4%) than his fastball (34.9%). That’s a common Atlanta development request, something they do with a lot of their prospects.

Earliest ETA: Next week? He’s penciled in for tonight’s start for Gwinnett versus Jacksonville, so they may either let him go and use him next week or possibly just scratch him for Saturday’s TBD.

Blake’s acquitting himself well

We dropped a newsletter last week asking the Braves to promote Blake Burkhalter…and just hours later, they announced he was promoted to Gwinnett. He acquitted himself well in a matchup against Pirates prospect Hunter Barco the very next day, going five innings with just one run allowed on four hits, although he did walk three to go with his four strikeouts. He gave up just three hard-hit balls, all coming off his cutter, which also racked up 12 whiffs in 22 swings.

To do to earn a debut: As we discussed last week, Burky’s got to find ways to keep lefties off of the barrel. While the batting average discrepancy isn’t great, with southpaws hitting .264, 56 points better than righties, the OPS is over 100 points worse. It’s not egregiously bad, mind you, but definitely something to watch. Major League lineups will stack lefties against him and force him to figure it out or watch his ERA die while trying, so let’s see if we can get more improvement out of his secondaries before he gets called up.

Earliest ETA: I’m going to say mid-August, although I feel like this could be earlier simply because of his experience advantage over Ritchie.

A Glimpse of the Future, Out of Necessity

None of these three arms are going to be promoted because they’re fully polished and ready to be MLB starters. They’re going to be promoted because the Braves simply don’t have enough healthy bodies to avoid it. But that doesn’t mean this is a wasted stretch - if anything, it’s a rare opportunity to gather information on who can help you in 2026 and beyond.

Atlanta’s season might be trending toward irrelevance in the standings, but every start by one of these young arms is a chance to learn something that can help shape the next good Braves team. They don’t have to be perfect, they just have to show they belong in the conversation.