"“We did not go into the deadline with, ‘Hey, we have to get this, we have to get that."
If AA was not smart enough to know he needed to add an playoff caliber starter to slot behind Sale then he is absolutely NOT the right man to sit in the GM chair. Period. Mic drop. Hard stop.
We had the Profar money to spend. Our farm system is deeper in prospects than it has been in years. We had prospects to trade. Everybody and his brother has known SINCE LAST OCTOBER that the Braves needed to upgrade the rotation...and yet, it STILL has not happened. This deadline was a COLOSSAL failure on AA's part. You can try and spin it however you want to, but in the end it was a TOTAL, COMPLETE, COLOSSAL FAILURE!
Good points, glad you cooled down since yesterday. Was watching the live video before you left for yesterday's press conference and it wasn't hard to read the disappointment.
We don't know the offers the Braves had, but the references to past Baldwin and Harris feelers when they were prospects suggests that after teams were told Caminiti and Hartman (and maybe Tate and Briggs) were off the table for rentals it was game over.
I suppose our farm system ranking should go up now as one of the few teams unwilling to deplete. Wonder how much Perez and Elder's recent strong work played into AA's lack of desperation at the negotiating table. His resolve is admirable. Glad he's not influenced by loud internet voices.
I’m just tired of him saying they’re looking for an impact starter and not getting one, he’s been saying it since last November just stop saying it if you don’t actually care to do it man.
Great analysis Lindsay!! I wasn’t expecting this after watching your video last night. I’m disappointed the Braves didn’t land a top-tier starter. But the definition of “top-tier” changed dramatically for most commentators and fans as the deadline approached. A dozen top-tier SPs did not change hands in the past week; maybe 3 did. AA actions reflect reality: 1. Braves team ERA is 5th and the team has the 3rd best record in baseball through 3/4 of the season. Remarkable given all the noise AA ignored in spring training that had this team doomed to 4th place. Braves are in first place with a 7.5 game lead over 2 teams that spend more money than they do. 2. Pitching depth is what matters. It’s not the 1990’s. Good MLB organizations are increasing realizing an “out is an out”. That generally holds true in the post-season as well, although the shorter the series, the less it’s true. 3. The Braves failures in the past several seasons bave been primarily due to a lack of run production.
I used to consider myself a main-stream Braves fan, but I guess I’ve become a big-time contrarian. I’m perfectly fine with AA’s actions.
Yeah, I was in my feelings a bit last night, but needed to get that out and then move on. Still a bit embarassed I got as heated as I did on the livestream
You’re video was fine. It was hard not to feel let down. Kudos for a great piece this morning. The 2 Tiger transactions were the only one’s that bothered me. The Skubal deal feels weird. I’m not a conspiracy guy, but I do wonder if the fix was in. And Mize going to the Padres at the last minute was bothersome. I don’t think I’d sign Mize as an FA, but he was my top rental after Skubal. He’s having a solid year and one more reason Braves don’t want any part of the Padres in the post-season.
I didn't realize that Mize's xFIP is only 3.78. Very solid, but more than a run higher than his ERA. More than that, projections--ZiPS at least--see that coming down. Looking back a couple seasons, he really hasn't been much better than Elder.
Mize was the guy I wanted, but feel a bit better about passing this morning.
Damn DeGrom. That would have been an incredible addition.
When you combine his peripherals and estimators with AA's comment last night about how a trade deadline acquisition isn't guaranteed to either be healthy or perform well, them not being aggressive after Mize made a lot more sense
If this is usually the case, why do we hear the same gaslighting in the run-up after the season, and then as we get into the season and approach the trade deadline? I think the best thing would be to say "we'll be looking at the roster and there's an approach we always take that considers certain strengths and financial obligations" and leave it like that? He spends an excessive amount of time trying to convince us that the budget and intent are there to go after, for example, a frontline starter, when that is simply not going to be the case—except under very particular circumstances.
I honestly expect him to back off yet again on the specificity, yeah. Last time he was definitive, with the Travis d'Arnaud option, it came back to bite him in the butt.
I'd expect him to keep saying "open to whatever will make the team better" and vague comments like that.
The Tigers wanted someone specifically from the Dodgers and made the call.
For the Braves it was DeGrom or bust, don't think they were super interested in anyone else.
The farm system is just now beginning to replenish with position players. AA was never going to trade a top 5 or maybe even top 6 prospect for a rental. A couple of those guys might even arrive sometime next year. (Tate and Eric).
The process is to try and maintain a perpetual competitive window. We are the opposite of the Padres and the Red Sox. Other teams value their prospects more than they do. If you are willing to
I can deal with the disappointment. I am sad about Mateo--completely useless type fan clutching, but sometimes that is me. Turns out I am a Briggs 'clutcher' as well. Same with Cam and Hartman among others. For two months of Mize I would be willing to give someone strong like Gil and others, but not Briggs or Cam or other possible No 1's and I am not willing to give up Hartman among others. So essentially there is a quality assessment where I would not give up for the two month rental. That is in essence what AA did. And he dfa'ed Mateo which sucks. I have to believe that AA has better information that the rest of us and since he has made so many other wise choices regarding the Braves prospects. Lindsay you speak often if AA trades a prospect away it is rare they do really well. So AA evaluates the prospects and understands them pretty clearly. If AA chooses the evaluation of 2 months of Mize is not worth Briggs? I agree with his assessment at this point. Cutting Mateo, hell no! JK.
The rule 5 protection this winter could be devastating. Lots of players may be cut or let go--more Bummer type 5 for 1 trades because so many in need of a 40 man spot. It will be so much fun. It wuld be so much fun if Mateo takes a minor legue assignment and then gets brought up in Spetember 1st and for the playoffs.
Lindsay if AJSS get brought up one more time (he was the 27th man for a double header so he has not used that last option) he would not have any options for next year. It would be hard for him to stay in the rotation in 27 for the year due to lack of innings. If the Braves bring him up in September--that does not count as use of an option correct? Like AJSS could be a full time starter in September and playoffs and the Braves can keep AJSS option for next year. Is this correct?
Your article today is well thought out and devoid of the emotional let-down of yesterday. But I will always feel AA was misguided yesterday. He clearly thinks that making the playoffs every year is all that can be asked of an organization. Not a bad plan but teams like the Dodgers and Phillies are in it to win the WS, not just 'making the playoffs'. With Sale being at his peak so far this season, this was the one year when the addition of a Tarik Skubal would have given the Braves a true threat to go all the way - and what really haunts me is the Braves seemingly could well have equaled or bettered the Dodger's offer without totally decimating their valued prospects. Sale will be back next year but who can realistically think he will be as dominating as currently at age 38? I'm sure AA would agree, but he would say, "We will have Schwellenbach and Strider and AJSS back". We've already seen way too much optimism for returning injured pitchers. Yes, we will have a host of recovering pitchers for a strike-shortened season and an aging roster of position players.
I will say that Gabe Burns of the AJC talked this morning about the Braves making those prospects available for Skubal, but Detroit never really even been willing to engage and and craft and offer, so it sounds like they were always set on sending him to the Dodgers.
On the getting to the postseason thing, it almost feels like they're taking the randomness of the postseason a little bit too far and just assuming that nothing they do will meaningfully change the team's odds in October because the postseason has that randomness element to it because of a short series. It's probably a bit of an over correction on their part.
Yes - too much deferring to 'randomness', as though once you make the post season it's all a matter of luck thereafter. If the Braves do make the playoffs, I like Sale against anybody. But for Game Two, Holmes or Mahle or Elder against a Yamamoto or a Wheeler?! Come on.
The reason San Diego trades prospects for starting pitchers is they are so Well Run they know they are confident in their ability to replace them in the Draft and Internationally.
Braves are run by people who take Carter Beck with the #26 pick
I'd argue the well-run point - their payroll is a disaster, with a bunch of aging, bloated contracts, and they had less pitching than us at the deadline (requiring the two starters).
Their GM certainly is more willing to trade future assets to improve a competitive window now, though, and I see how that's attractive to a certain subset of fans.
AJ Preller is one of the worst GMs in the sport. Swap him and AA and the Padres are stacked with one of the best young cores in MLBl--James Wood, CJ Abrams, Leo De Vries, Mackenzie Gore, Robby Snelling--all of this on top of Tatis, Merrill, Salas, and the $65M dollars a year they're throwing away on Machado and Bogaerts.
And Carter Beck got the 40th biggest bonus. The Braves have a strong track record with these kind of profiles. I'm really excited about him.
I agree that I'd rather have the steady, we're always a contender GM over the uber-aggressive, consistently mortgaging the future to win now GM. That stuff just catches up with you eventually, and the piper is coming for the Padres as those contracts, age?
This is a great point. One of my takeaways from watching the Nats this weekend is that they came out well ahead in the Soto deal. Wood and Abrams by themselves have been worth 23 WAR; Soto was worth seven WAR in his time in San Diego. Wood and Abrams have both been more valuable this year than Soto, leaving aside the fact that they are much cheaper. And that's before you get to the rest of the package that the Nats got from the Padres.
So yeah, I am comfortable with AA not mimicking Preller and that's before I took a peek at Bogaerts' page at Baseball Reference. $25M per year for the next seven years and he's a 1.3 WAR shortstop this year at age 33. Yikes!
Exactly. FanGraphs ranks James Wood as one of the 10 most valuable assets in baseball. Things could have gone the other way, but trying to out-Dodger the Dodgers was never the right strategy for San Diego.
The casual fan doesn’t realize how bleak the long-term outlook is. They haven’t drafted well, the farm system is weak, and they’re carrying two of baseball’s worst contracts in Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. Their entire rotation may need to be rebuilt after this season, and they have far too much value tied up in a reliever.
They’re on their way back to irrelevance. It may not happen this year, but it’s coming.
I'm disappointed they didn't add more, but is it possible the thinking was to not chase the Dodgers this year, when the likelihood is a cap system is in place going forward, which on its own will close the gap? Why go all-in this year, when future years may set up better?
Alternatively, given the long-term commitments already in place, do the Braves need to hold on to prospects for cost certainty?
I think one way of evaluating their reluctance to trade the top guys for someone they deemed below the level of an "impact" starter (AA said there were only two) was a consideration that several of them - OF Hartman, LHP Caminiti, SS/2B Southisene - might be needed to replace guys like Acuña, Sale, and Ozzie in the next few years
They were willing to sacrifice some of that group for a guy like Skubal or DeGrom, but not for a Mize, if that makes sense
Good work, Lindsay. Good work, AA.
"“We did not go into the deadline with, ‘Hey, we have to get this, we have to get that."
If AA was not smart enough to know he needed to add an playoff caliber starter to slot behind Sale then he is absolutely NOT the right man to sit in the GM chair. Period. Mic drop. Hard stop.
We had the Profar money to spend. Our farm system is deeper in prospects than it has been in years. We had prospects to trade. Everybody and his brother has known SINCE LAST OCTOBER that the Braves needed to upgrade the rotation...and yet, it STILL has not happened. This deadline was a COLOSSAL failure on AA's part. You can try and spin it however you want to, but in the end it was a TOTAL, COMPLETE, COLOSSAL FAILURE!
Good points, glad you cooled down since yesterday. Was watching the live video before you left for yesterday's press conference and it wasn't hard to read the disappointment.
We don't know the offers the Braves had, but the references to past Baldwin and Harris feelers when they were prospects suggests that after teams were told Caminiti and Hartman (and maybe Tate and Briggs) were off the table for rentals it was game over.
I suppose our farm system ranking should go up now as one of the few teams unwilling to deplete. Wonder how much Perez and Elder's recent strong work played into AA's lack of desperation at the negotiating table. His resolve is admirable. Glad he's not influenced by loud internet voices.
I’m just tired of him saying they’re looking for an impact starter and not getting one, he’s been saying it since last November just stop saying it if you don’t actually care to do it man.
Just word salad from AA trying to excuse his malfeasance from yesterday.
It's grown tiresome,and stale.
It will be the same song and dance when he goes to the booth tonight with Brandon and CJ.
It will also be the same first round exit.
Lockout can't get here quick enough.
Great analysis Lindsay!! I wasn’t expecting this after watching your video last night. I’m disappointed the Braves didn’t land a top-tier starter. But the definition of “top-tier” changed dramatically for most commentators and fans as the deadline approached. A dozen top-tier SPs did not change hands in the past week; maybe 3 did. AA actions reflect reality: 1. Braves team ERA is 5th and the team has the 3rd best record in baseball through 3/4 of the season. Remarkable given all the noise AA ignored in spring training that had this team doomed to 4th place. Braves are in first place with a 7.5 game lead over 2 teams that spend more money than they do. 2. Pitching depth is what matters. It’s not the 1990’s. Good MLB organizations are increasing realizing an “out is an out”. That generally holds true in the post-season as well, although the shorter the series, the less it’s true. 3. The Braves failures in the past several seasons bave been primarily due to a lack of run production.
I used to consider myself a main-stream Braves fan, but I guess I’ve become a big-time contrarian. I’m perfectly fine with AA’s actions.
Yeah, I was in my feelings a bit last night, but needed to get that out and then move on. Still a bit embarassed I got as heated as I did on the livestream
You have absolutely NOTHING to apologize for! You SAID what we were ALL feeling!
You’re video was fine. It was hard not to feel let down. Kudos for a great piece this morning. The 2 Tiger transactions were the only one’s that bothered me. The Skubal deal feels weird. I’m not a conspiracy guy, but I do wonder if the fix was in. And Mize going to the Padres at the last minute was bothersome. I don’t think I’d sign Mize as an FA, but he was my top rental after Skubal. He’s having a solid year and one more reason Braves don’t want any part of the Padres in the post-season.
I didn't realize that Mize's xFIP is only 3.78. Very solid, but more than a run higher than his ERA. More than that, projections--ZiPS at least--see that coming down. Looking back a couple seasons, he really hasn't been much better than Elder.
Mize was the guy I wanted, but feel a bit better about passing this morning.
Damn DeGrom. That would have been an incredible addition.
When you combine his peripherals and estimators with AA's comment last night about how a trade deadline acquisition isn't guaranteed to either be healthy or perform well, them not being aggressive after Mize made a lot more sense
Good points Garrett! Thanks for that. I feel better now too. Still don’t want any part of SD in the off -season.
If this is usually the case, why do we hear the same gaslighting in the run-up after the season, and then as we get into the season and approach the trade deadline? I think the best thing would be to say "we'll be looking at the roster and there's an approach we always take that considers certain strengths and financial obligations" and leave it like that? He spends an excessive amount of time trying to convince us that the budget and intent are there to go after, for example, a frontline starter, when that is simply not going to be the case—except under very particular circumstances.
I honestly expect him to back off yet again on the specificity, yeah. Last time he was definitive, with the Travis d'Arnaud option, it came back to bite him in the butt.
I'd expect him to keep saying "open to whatever will make the team better" and vague comments like that.
Politicians used to call that “a version of the truth” then they stopped caring.
The Tigers wanted someone specifically from the Dodgers and made the call.
For the Braves it was DeGrom or bust, don't think they were super interested in anyone else.
The farm system is just now beginning to replenish with position players. AA was never going to trade a top 5 or maybe even top 6 prospect for a rental. A couple of those guys might even arrive sometime next year. (Tate and Eric).
The process is to try and maintain a perpetual competitive window. We are the opposite of the Padres and the Red Sox. Other teams value their prospects more than they do. If you are willing to
spend big in FA you can probably keep doing that.
I can deal with the disappointment. I am sad about Mateo--completely useless type fan clutching, but sometimes that is me. Turns out I am a Briggs 'clutcher' as well. Same with Cam and Hartman among others. For two months of Mize I would be willing to give someone strong like Gil and others, but not Briggs or Cam or other possible No 1's and I am not willing to give up Hartman among others. So essentially there is a quality assessment where I would not give up for the two month rental. That is in essence what AA did. And he dfa'ed Mateo which sucks. I have to believe that AA has better information that the rest of us and since he has made so many other wise choices regarding the Braves prospects. Lindsay you speak often if AA trades a prospect away it is rare they do really well. So AA evaluates the prospects and understands them pretty clearly. If AA chooses the evaluation of 2 months of Mize is not worth Briggs? I agree with his assessment at this point. Cutting Mateo, hell no! JK.
The rule 5 protection this winter could be devastating. Lots of players may be cut or let go--more Bummer type 5 for 1 trades because so many in need of a 40 man spot. It will be so much fun. It wuld be so much fun if Mateo takes a minor legue assignment and then gets brought up in Spetember 1st and for the playoffs.
Lindsay if AJSS get brought up one more time (he was the 27th man for a double header so he has not used that last option) he would not have any options for next year. It would be hard for him to stay in the rotation in 27 for the year due to lack of innings. If the Braves bring him up in September--that does not count as use of an option correct? Like AJSS could be a full time starter in September and playoffs and the Braves can keep AJSS option for next year. Is this correct?
Your article today is well thought out and devoid of the emotional let-down of yesterday. But I will always feel AA was misguided yesterday. He clearly thinks that making the playoffs every year is all that can be asked of an organization. Not a bad plan but teams like the Dodgers and Phillies are in it to win the WS, not just 'making the playoffs'. With Sale being at his peak so far this season, this was the one year when the addition of a Tarik Skubal would have given the Braves a true threat to go all the way - and what really haunts me is the Braves seemingly could well have equaled or bettered the Dodger's offer without totally decimating their valued prospects. Sale will be back next year but who can realistically think he will be as dominating as currently at age 38? I'm sure AA would agree, but he would say, "We will have Schwellenbach and Strider and AJSS back". We've already seen way too much optimism for returning injured pitchers. Yes, we will have a host of recovering pitchers for a strike-shortened season and an aging roster of position players.
I will say that Gabe Burns of the AJC talked this morning about the Braves making those prospects available for Skubal, but Detroit never really even been willing to engage and and craft and offer, so it sounds like they were always set on sending him to the Dodgers.
On the getting to the postseason thing, it almost feels like they're taking the randomness of the postseason a little bit too far and just assuming that nothing they do will meaningfully change the team's odds in October because the postseason has that randomness element to it because of a short series. It's probably a bit of an over correction on their part.
Yes - too much deferring to 'randomness', as though once you make the post season it's all a matter of luck thereafter. If the Braves do make the playoffs, I like Sale against anybody. But for Game Two, Holmes or Mahle or Elder against a Yamamoto or a Wheeler?! Come on.
Padres have chased the Dodgers and their contracts are beyond scary.
The reason San Diego trades prospects for starting pitchers is they are so Well Run they know they are confident in their ability to replace them in the Draft and Internationally.
Braves are run by people who take Carter Beck with the #26 pick
I'd argue the well-run point - their payroll is a disaster, with a bunch of aging, bloated contracts, and they had less pitching than us at the deadline (requiring the two starters).
Their GM certainly is more willing to trade future assets to improve a competitive window now, though, and I see how that's attractive to a certain subset of fans.
Bleacher Report just ranked the Farm Systems after the Trade Deadline.
They ranked the Braves #3 !!!
Baseball America will rank the Farm Systems this month, i think.
Hang a banner then.
No. #5 this week. #3 last week.
AJ Preller is one of the worst GMs in the sport. Swap him and AA and the Padres are stacked with one of the best young cores in MLBl--James Wood, CJ Abrams, Leo De Vries, Mackenzie Gore, Robby Snelling--all of this on top of Tatis, Merrill, Salas, and the $65M dollars a year they're throwing away on Machado and Bogaerts.
And Carter Beck got the 40th biggest bonus. The Braves have a strong track record with these kind of profiles. I'm really excited about him.
Welcome to the paid subscriber group, Garrett!
I agree that I'd rather have the steady, we're always a contender GM over the uber-aggressive, consistently mortgaging the future to win now GM. That stuff just catches up with you eventually, and the piper is coming for the Padres as those contracts, age?
This is a great point. One of my takeaways from watching the Nats this weekend is that they came out well ahead in the Soto deal. Wood and Abrams by themselves have been worth 23 WAR; Soto was worth seven WAR in his time in San Diego. Wood and Abrams have both been more valuable this year than Soto, leaving aside the fact that they are much cheaper. And that's before you get to the rest of the package that the Nats got from the Padres.
So yeah, I am comfortable with AA not mimicking Preller and that's before I took a peek at Bogaerts' page at Baseball Reference. $25M per year for the next seven years and he's a 1.3 WAR shortstop this year at age 33. Yikes!
Exactly. FanGraphs ranks James Wood as one of the 10 most valuable assets in baseball. Things could have gone the other way, but trying to out-Dodger the Dodgers was never the right strategy for San Diego.
The casual fan doesn’t realize how bleak the long-term outlook is. They haven’t drafted well, the farm system is weak, and they’re carrying two of baseball’s worst contracts in Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. Their entire rotation may need to be rebuilt after this season, and they have far too much value tied up in a reliever.
They’re on their way back to irrelevance. It may not happen this year, but it’s coming.
Well said. I'm sure they're under tremendous pressure to compete with team just up North, the Dodgers.
I'm disappointed they didn't add more, but is it possible the thinking was to not chase the Dodgers this year, when the likelihood is a cap system is in place going forward, which on its own will close the gap? Why go all-in this year, when future years may set up better?
Alternatively, given the long-term commitments already in place, do the Braves need to hold on to prospects for cost certainty?
I'm grasping at straws here!
I think one way of evaluating their reluctance to trade the top guys for someone they deemed below the level of an "impact" starter (AA said there were only two) was a consideration that several of them - OF Hartman, LHP Caminiti, SS/2B Southisene - might be needed to replace guys like Acuña, Sale, and Ozzie in the next few years
They were willing to sacrifice some of that group for a guy like Skubal or DeGrom, but not for a Mize, if that makes sense
But he also said that you can't base what you do around what other teams do, and I think I approve of that sentiment