Thanks, Lindsay, for explaining (i) why the Braves make pitchers with 5+ERA look like a Cy Young candidate. Over the season I watched Austin Riley - time after time - take the first pitch (fastball right down Main St), swing at slider curve just off the plate, then swing in THE EXACT SAME SPOT on slider/curve FURTHER off the plate. Three pitches. One strike. Another strikeout. Over and over. Frustrating. Hard to see this team going very far in the playoffs for THIS VERY REASON. Brian: save me a spot on your ledge.
Hyers is not a popular guy with the fan base so this probably sounds like a leading question but I’m genuinely asking, how much of this is Hyers responsibility and what’s the threshold for ditching him and trying someone else? I’m way out of my element on knowing enough about coaching to have any kind of informed opinion on whether or not he should go and who his replacement should be, but my uninformed opinion is that the offense has been bad the whole time he’s been here.
Of the three things I said they needed to do, adjusting before the third at-bat is the one that falls the most on him.
At this point, I don't see any way they can keep him even though he's not entirely the problem. They've had moments where the offense looked pretty decent under him, but it was fueled by OBP from Ozuna and Profar and Olson being comfortable with the ask
You’re bang on with this analysis. I watch all the games on TV (I live in Kentucky) and I usually wait about 30 minutes after game time to turn on the game so I can speed through the commercials between innings. When you do that the innings and their relative lengths show up on the bottom of the screen. You can see your analysis unfold almost every game, a little longer in the 1st and maybe 2nd innings and then a long stretch of innings in the middle of very short innings. Usually I can tell whether the Braves are going to win or not. I still watch all the innings just in case someone hits a home run.
AA must spend money this offseason to beef up the lineup hitting wise and get at least two more good starters. We can’t count on any injured pitchers returning and being productive.
Thanks Lindsay. Great article. Not exactly the uplifting news I was looking for heading into the playoffs though. Could someone talk me off the ledge please?
Terrific analysis! Your ability to tell a story using analytics is outstanding. It has added a lot to my enjoyment of the Braves and baseball.
The Braves offense in general and the performance of a handful of specific players is very baffling and disappointing (Riley). Your analysis helps explain it. Hopefully, enough players get hot and rise to the occasion come October for the Braves to make a run. The playoffs are such a small sample, anything is possible.
Beyond this season, would be very interested in your discussion of the Braves offensive makeup and philosophy. Teams are constantly making adjuatments. My sense is the correlation between the conventional wisdom of the last decade (hit the ball hard, increase launch angle and sacrifice contact rate) and scoring runs is decreasing. The correlation this season between hard hit rate and RpG is a weak positive correlation using the Pearson correlation coefficient. (AI has made these calculations amazingly easy). And you can see this when comparing the top 10 teams in RpG and hard hit rate. How the Braves rank and how they adjust their roster and philosophy headed into 2027 will be interesting to discuss.
Yeah, I really feel like the league, both at the major league level and the draft, are starting to prioritize hit tools and trying to build the accompanying power than grabbing raw power and trying to get them to miss less pitches.
Definitely something to dive into once the season ends, both as a predictive tool for how the offseason might go, as well as a look at the minor leagues
Agreed. The Blue Jays were a high contact offense last year that leaned a bit more into the power in the postseason and went all the way to game 7 of the World Series
Three teams really highlight MoneyBall theory and baseball trajectories… the Rays, the Brewers and the Mariners. Mariners are the penultimate conventional wisdom team and did a good job at it (unlike the Mets). Hoarded SPs, built a proven 5 man rotation and got guys to swing for the fences. The Brewers and Rays defied the conventional approach. They traded proven SPs, built pitching depth and an offense based on contact. Rays and Brewers will be #1 seeds in the playoffs, M’s will be playing golf. Their respective payroll had a lot to do with decisions as well. And one of the key lessons is you have to match your payroll to your philosophy. You can’t follow conventional wisdom and be a middle of the pack spender like the M’s. There will be a lot to unpack this offseason after the Braves win the World Series.
Great point. To rant a bit… Success in the regular season is trending towards a more contact oriented offense and pitching depth. Postseason success requires a more slug oriented offense and 2+ aces (high swing & miss rates) with 4-5 guys that are lights out in the pen. For every team it comes down to timing… guys getting hot in October. Every team except the Dodgers. Their level of spending has allowed them to essentially build 2 teams - one for the regular season and one for the playoffs. Given their payroll is 2x many of the teams they’ll face in the playoffs, it’s not surprising. We can argue all day about whether that is good or bad for baseball.
Brilliant article Lindsay. Harkens back to Leo Mazzone's constant plea: "Pitching starts with strike one". Riley is the poster child for letting the pitcher get ahead 0-1 and then getting tooled by the pitcher, as Michael has stated.
Lindsay, what is going on with Strider? We hear of upcoming surgeries for Schwelly and Waldrep, Reynaldo is done, the three youngsters are not very good yet, but nobody even mentions Strider's status.
Thanks, Lindsay, for explaining (i) why the Braves make pitchers with 5+ERA look like a Cy Young candidate. Over the season I watched Austin Riley - time after time - take the first pitch (fastball right down Main St), swing at slider curve just off the plate, then swing in THE EXACT SAME SPOT on slider/curve FURTHER off the plate. Three pitches. One strike. Another strikeout. Over and over. Frustrating. Hard to see this team going very far in the playoffs for THIS VERY REASON. Brian: save me a spot on your ledge.
Hyers is not a popular guy with the fan base so this probably sounds like a leading question but I’m genuinely asking, how much of this is Hyers responsibility and what’s the threshold for ditching him and trying someone else? I’m way out of my element on knowing enough about coaching to have any kind of informed opinion on whether or not he should go and who his replacement should be, but my uninformed opinion is that the offense has been bad the whole time he’s been here.
Of the three things I said they needed to do, adjusting before the third at-bat is the one that falls the most on him.
At this point, I don't see any way they can keep him even though he's not entirely the problem. They've had moments where the offense looked pretty decent under him, but it was fueled by OBP from Ozuna and Profar and Olson being comfortable with the ask
Thanks for the reply, fingers crossed we get a change in the offseason then!
You’re bang on with this analysis. I watch all the games on TV (I live in Kentucky) and I usually wait about 30 minutes after game time to turn on the game so I can speed through the commercials between innings. When you do that the innings and their relative lengths show up on the bottom of the screen. You can see your analysis unfold almost every game, a little longer in the 1st and maybe 2nd innings and then a long stretch of innings in the middle of very short innings. Usually I can tell whether the Braves are going to win or not. I still watch all the innings just in case someone hits a home run.
AA must spend money this offseason to beef up the lineup hitting wise and get at least two more good starters. We can’t count on any injured pitchers returning and being productive.
Thanks Lindsay. Great article. Not exactly the uplifting news I was looking for heading into the playoffs though. Could someone talk me off the ledge please?
Terrific analysis! Your ability to tell a story using analytics is outstanding. It has added a lot to my enjoyment of the Braves and baseball.
The Braves offense in general and the performance of a handful of specific players is very baffling and disappointing (Riley). Your analysis helps explain it. Hopefully, enough players get hot and rise to the occasion come October for the Braves to make a run. The playoffs are such a small sample, anything is possible.
Beyond this season, would be very interested in your discussion of the Braves offensive makeup and philosophy. Teams are constantly making adjuatments. My sense is the correlation between the conventional wisdom of the last decade (hit the ball hard, increase launch angle and sacrifice contact rate) and scoring runs is decreasing. The correlation this season between hard hit rate and RpG is a weak positive correlation using the Pearson correlation coefficient. (AI has made these calculations amazingly easy). And you can see this when comparing the top 10 teams in RpG and hard hit rate. How the Braves rank and how they adjust their roster and philosophy headed into 2027 will be interesting to discuss.
Yeah, I really feel like the league, both at the major league level and the draft, are starting to prioritize hit tools and trying to build the accompanying power than grabbing raw power and trying to get them to miss less pitches.
Definitely something to dive into once the season ends, both as a predictive tool for how the offseason might go, as well as a look at the minor leagues
And will be very interesting to see how the teams that have prioritized contact perform in the playoffs.
Agreed. The Blue Jays were a high contact offense last year that leaned a bit more into the power in the postseason and went all the way to game 7 of the World Series
Three teams really highlight MoneyBall theory and baseball trajectories… the Rays, the Brewers and the Mariners. Mariners are the penultimate conventional wisdom team and did a good job at it (unlike the Mets). Hoarded SPs, built a proven 5 man rotation and got guys to swing for the fences. The Brewers and Rays defied the conventional approach. They traded proven SPs, built pitching depth and an offense based on contact. Rays and Brewers will be #1 seeds in the playoffs, M’s will be playing golf. Their respective payroll had a lot to do with decisions as well. And one of the key lessons is you have to match your payroll to your philosophy. You can’t follow conventional wisdom and be a middle of the pack spender like the M’s. There will be a lot to unpack this offseason after the Braves win the World Series.
Great point. To rant a bit… Success in the regular season is trending towards a more contact oriented offense and pitching depth. Postseason success requires a more slug oriented offense and 2+ aces (high swing & miss rates) with 4-5 guys that are lights out in the pen. For every team it comes down to timing… guys getting hot in October. Every team except the Dodgers. Their level of spending has allowed them to essentially build 2 teams - one for the regular season and one for the playoffs. Given their payroll is 2x many of the teams they’ll face in the playoffs, it’s not surprising. We can argue all day about whether that is good or bad for baseball.
Brilliant article Lindsay. Harkens back to Leo Mazzone's constant plea: "Pitching starts with strike one". Riley is the poster child for letting the pitcher get ahead 0-1 and then getting tooled by the pitcher, as Michael has stated.
Lindsay, what is going on with Strider? We hear of upcoming surgeries for Schwelly and Waldrep, Reynaldo is done, the three youngsters are not very good yet, but nobody even mentions Strider's status.
I have no idea about Strider, but it's a massive question to answer for 2027.
Really good analysis Lindsay.
Expect a new hitting coach next year, huh ?
BA just released good info on International prospects.
John Gil the #25 prospect from the DR.
Davis Polo #2 prospect from Colombia !!!!