Projecting Atlanta's Opening Day Roster, Version 1.0

Early spring competitions, roster math, and the decisions already coming into focus

Atlanta needs these three players to perform like the aircraft carriers they are.

Now that pitchers and catchers are set to report to spring training today, it seems like a good time to do our first Atlanta Braves Opening Day roster projection.

In the four-plus months since the Braves last played a baseball game, they’ve changed managers and most of the coaching staff, retaining only hitting coach Tim Hyers and major league coach Eddie Pérez. They also brought back several pending free agents, including closer Raisel Iglesias, shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, and (eventually) reliever Tyler Kinley. They also traded for utilityman Mauricio Dubón and added several free agents, including NL saves leader Robert Suarez and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski.

Outside of player acquisition, the Braves successfully gambled that they wouldn’t lose any of their prospects to the Rule 5 draft and received the #9 pick in this summer’s MLB Draft, adding another first-rounder to the mix thanks to Drake Baldwin’s Rookie of the Year win. The three Top 50 picks will make for an interesting 2026 MLB Draft, one we’ve already started covering.

Here is our first attempt at projecting the Opening Day roster based on the information we currently have. Any changes to this will likely come due to injury (like Kim’s finger tendon injury that will keep him out until at least mid-May) or someone playing their way onto the roster in Grapefruit League action.

(Bold denotes a player on the 40-man roster, Italics denotes a non-roster invitee)

Catchers (2)

In: Drake Baldwin, Sandy León
Others in camp: Chadwick Tromp, Jair Camargo

Given that Sean Murphy won’t be available for Opening Day after September hip surgery (which we tried to warn everyone about at the time), MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reported that Baldwin is likely to play upwards of five games a week until Murphy returns in mid-May or so.

Whoever is chosen between Sandy León and Chadwick Tromp to back up Baldwin matters, but only to the extent that they can hold down the position adequately on Drake’s weekly rest day. Barring a signing, I’m going with León due to his familiarity with and past mentorship of Baldwin while they were playing together in Triple-A Gwinnett in 2024.

Infielders (6)

In: 1B Matt Olson, 2B Ozzie Albies, SS Mauricio Dubón, 3B Austin Riley, UTIL Jorge Mateo, UTIL Kyle Farmer
Others in camp: 3B Nacho Alvarez Jr., UTILs Tristin English, Aaron Schunk, Jim Jarvis, Luke Williams, Luke Waddell; SSs Alex Lodise & John Gil

The ‘core four’ of Olson, Riley, Albies, and Dubón are all locked into starting spots, and backup shortstop Jorge Mateo likely is as well, but the final bench spot has a lot of NRIs battling for a job on Opening Day. With Nacho Alvarez Jr. both being optionable and lacking experience at second or first base, he feels destined for Gwinnett. Jim Jarvis and Tristin English both fit into the ‘prospect that is here for experience’ bucket along with Lodise and Gil, with all four expected to return to the minors to start 2026. That leaves Schunk, Williams, and Friday’s signee Kyle Farmer to battle for the final bench spot, with Farmer being my pick as of now to survive to Opening Day.

Outfielders (5)

In: LF/DH Jurickson Profar, CF Michael Harris II, RF Ronald Acuña Jr., OF Mike Yastrzemski, OF Eli White
Others in camp: Ben Gamel, Brewer Hicklen, DaShawn Keirsey Jr, Josè Azocar

The outfield feels pretty set, barring either an injury or some sort of dominant performance in Grapefruit League play; the Braves rewarded Forrest Wall’s dominant 2024 spring training, .308/.400/.564 in 28 games, with an Opening Day roster spot.

If any of these outfielders make the roster, it’d likely come at the expense of the 26th spot, which we currently have going to Farmer.

Starting pitchers (5)

In: Chris Sale (L), Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo López, Bryce Elder
Others in camp: Hurston Waldrep, Grant Holmes, Joey Wentz, José Suarez, Didier Fuentes, Carlos Carrasco, Martin Pérez, Elieser Hernández, JR Ritchie, Owen Murphy, Garrett Baumann

The battle for the final rotation spot should, from a clearly ‘who is most talented’ perspective, go to Hurston Waldrep. The righthander pitched to a 2.88 ERA last season in his ten appearances, averaging nearly a strikeout an inning and having only two starts of more than two earned runs. His four total runs allowed over his first six appearances, good for an ERA of 1.01, were the best six-game stretch of any Braves starter last season not named Chris Sale.

But unfortunately, roster dynamics play a role here. I still expect Bryce Elder to win the final rotation spot, given that he’s out of options and Waldrep isn’t. Making this temporary sacrifice can allow the Braves to moderate Waldrep’s innings in Gwinnett early in the season. As good as Waldrep’s first six appearances were last season, he put up a 6.10 ERA in the month of September, with the youngster reportedly telling the organization that he was feeling the workload of the longest season of his career.

I expect Fuentes to join Ritchie, Murphy, and Baumann in the minors to continue developing, but some of the remaining veterans, all of whom are out of options, will make the bullpen and some won’t be on the team come March 25th.

Relief pitchers (8)

In: Raisel Iglesias (CL), Robert Suarez (RH SU), Dylan Lee (LH SU), Tyler Kinley, Aaron Bummer (L), Joel Payamps, Grant Holmes (‘utility pitcher’), Joey Wentz (LH Longman)
Others in camp: José Suarez, Ian Hamilton, Daysbel Hernández, Dylan Dodd (L), Hayden Harris, Hunter Stratton, James Karinchak, Tayler Scott, Austin Pope, Javy Guerra

Barring some sort of injury, drastic underperformance, or trade, six of the eight spots in the bullpen feel pretty locked in. The final two spots I currently have going to Holmes and Wentz, the out-of-options rotation candidates that have the most promise and team control remaining.

If someone were to emerge from the ‘others in camp’ list like a Karinchak or Hamilton, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Atlanta attempt to get some sort of value out of an out-of-options pitcher like Suárez via a minor trade.¹

This position feels like the one with the most variance and potential movement, however, simply because bullpen pieces are largely fungible from season to season and there are so many “buy low” breakout candidates here that someone can come out of spring looking like a potential relief ace in a small sample.

Any weaknesses here?

Honestly, not really. While some may quibble with Atlanta’s offseason focus of raising the floor instead of the ceiling, a decision that requires the stars to play like stars for the team to reach their potential, it’s a pretty solid roster.

Many of the projection systems agree, with Atlanta coming in anywhere from a Top 5 team via WAR (FanGraphs) to the 4th-best odds of winning the World Series (FanDuel). Injuries can change this between now and Opening Day, but I’d expect 90% of the hay is already in the barn.

But at the end of the day, early spring projections are less about predicting the exact 26-man roster and more about identifying the real competitions to watch. Over the next few weeks, we’ll monitor those battles, adjust the roster outlook accordingly, and revisit this projection as Atlanta moves closer to Opening Day.

Now, if only we had a way to watch these games.

1. Reminder, they got Suárez last season by acquiring him via trade for an out-of-options Ian Anderson at the end of spring training.