Alex Verdugo's time in Atlanta is almost up
The return of Jurickson Profar at the end of the month should spell the end of Alex Verdugo's time in Atlanta
The Atlanta Braves dealt with some unexpected adversity early this season, losing free agent addition Jurickson Profar after just four games. Suspended 80 games after failing a drug test for Chorionic Gonadotrophin, his loss created a vacancy in the team’s depth chart in left field.
Enter Alex Verdugo. The one-time Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees star signed in late March and went to the minor leagues to get into game shape. Debuting for Atlanta on April 18th, he hit .341/.396/.455 in his first ten games and looked to be a diamond in the rough for the Braves as the calendar turned to May.
Just one month later, and it’s clear his days in Atlanta are numbered. What happened? Let’s talk about it.
Verdugo’s profile doesn’t age well
A former #1 prospect of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who took him in the 2nd round of the 2014 MLB Draft, Verdugo was LA’s #1 prospect as recently as 2019, but even then, it was a “one weird trick” profile: His hit tool.
MLB Pipeline gave Verdugo a 65 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale for his bat, saying that “few prospects can rival Verdugo's pure hitting ability,” citing his .321 average in Triple-A and 11% strikeout rate in his first five professional seasons.
Everything else, with the exception of his big arm1, received average grades at best. The power grade of 50 was the most speculative, with Pipeline arguing that “his knowledge of hitting along with his bat speed and strength should produce at least average power once he adds some loft to his relatively flat left-handed stroke.”
Suffice it to say that never happened.
Verdugo’s single-season high in the minors was thirteen home runs as a 19-year-old in Single-A Rancho Cucamonga, the exact same total that he put up as a major leaguer in 2021, 2023, and 2024.
As Pipeline predicted, it’s a high-contact, low-strikeout profile. Verdugo’s career major league strikeout rate entering Monday’s game is just 15.0%, a full 9% below the MLB average of 22.6%.
It looked to be working early in his career, as well. From 2019 through 2022, covering his final year in Los Angeles and his first of four in Boston, Verdugo hit .289 with a .778 OPS. He struck out an average of 69 times a season while scoring an average of 61 runs with 49 runs batted in across that span.
But as we’ve seen too many times, that’s a risky profile that doesn’t always age well. A lot of single-tool profiles are susceptible to any sort of slippage in that one carrying tool, and this one’s no different. The recent graveyard of “high contact, low power hitters” is littered with the corpses of former batting champs like Tim Anderson, DJ LeMahieu, Avisaíl García, and Scooter Gennett, who all fell off quickly.
And it appears that the same is happening with Verdugo. Despite turning 29 just last month, he’s batting .250 with a career worst .621 OPS. While the whiff and strikeout rates are still exceptional, sitting at just 13.1% whiff (96th percentile) and 13.4% strikeout (89th percentile), too many of his outs are weak groundouts. Despite getting 164 plate appearances heading into Monday night’s series opener in Milwaukee, he’s without a single homer and has just four barrels on the season.
The approach has cratered
Verdugo’s swing percentage is at a career-low 37.9% and on the first pitch, he’s virtually guaranteed to not take the bat off his shoulder with just a 9.1% swing percentage. It’s almost as if he’s trying to ensure he’s ahead in the count after the first pitch, but unfortunately, pitchers are starting to catch on and pump pitches in the zone on the first pitch.
And even when opposing pitching staff do that, he’s not hitting them.
Verdugo’s swing percentage at “meatballs” comes in at just 46.2%, meaning that he swings at less than half of the pitches he sees right down the middle of the plate. Not great, right?
And here’s one of the problems that might lose Verdugo his job: when he does swing at those middle-middle pitches, he’s doing a lot of damage on them. Going into Monday, Verdugo’s batting .526 with a .632 slug on pitches in attack zone five.
He’s just not swinging, with only 24 swings in 52 pitches.
Here’s Verdugo’s two at-bats on Monday before Eli White came in to pinch-hit for him for a one-out at-bat in the top of the 6th.
One swing out of the zone, two takes in the zone for a strikeout.
Two takes in the zone, two foul balls in the zone, and a strikeout.
That’s frustrating… but you could get over it if he was a well-rounded player who provided value in all of the other facets of the game2…but frustratingly, he’s not doing anything else well at the moment, either.
Even the arm is no longer an asset
Verdugo’s arm strength this season is a 90th percentile 91.2 mph. Despite that, he’s not produced any defensive value with it, coming in at exactly zero run value.
Similar to what you sometimes see with big-armed pitchers, even though you can throw it hard, it’s still not that valuable if you don’t know where it’s going. Whether it’s decisions or inaccuracy, Verdugo’s shown this season to be susceptible to off-target throws that both don’t get the runner he’s gunning for, but also allow the trailing runner to advance.
Verdugo’s regressed to zero fielder runs with his arm on extra bases prevented, despite being at plus three last year for the Yankees, because runners and/or coaches no longer universally respect his arm. He’s seeing advance attempts on 35% of his outfield plays this season despite an expected value of just 34%.3
His foot speed, while never exceptional, has cratered to a 19th percentile 25.9 ft/sec. He’s at -1 bases taken runs, thanks to being thrown out twice against only one successful advance. The lack of speed just kills him in defensive range metrics, with Verdugo coming in at a 13th percentile -3 OAA.
It‘s an ugly statcast card.
So, what does Atlanta do?
Profar is back soon
Jurickson Profar is eligible to return at the end of June. While we had a lot of conversation soon after the suspension about the need to keep a leftfielder in the lineup who was postseason eligible, it feels like that ship has sailed.
And so, it feels like Profar’s going to be back in the lineup on July 1st when the Angels come to Truist Park for a three-game set.
We don’t know what type of player he’s going to be, given that we don’t have details as to he started taking the PEDs and if his power gains in 2024 were from mechanical changes (as Alex Anthopoulos told us they were before the season started) or if they were derived from pharmaceutical help.
The 24 homer, .280/.380/.459 version of Profar from 2024 might not be walking through that door.
But at this point, even the 2022 version of Profar - a .243 average with 15 homers, 82 runs, and 73 walks - feels better than what Verdugo’s been giving you lately. He’s just 22-101 across the last 30 games, good for a triple slash of .218/.275/.267.
And for a team that’s struggling on offense, that’s just not good enough.
He was a two-way player in high school that some teams wanted on the mound
*COUGH Michael Harris COUGH*
These values are usually in the 30s, so even 1% is a significant movement in one direction or the other.
To me, Verdugo walks around with an air of arrogance. His overall play, especially in the batters's box, sure didn't warrant that. I usually walk out of the room when he steps in the box and always takes the first pitch, and sometimes the second one, usually with both being called strikes, and then swings at the third pitch outside the box, which because of the pitch location, will usually end with a soft popup or a strikeout. The word has gotten around Verdugo likes to keep his bat on his shoulder, and the pitchers throw them middle middle, and it doesn't seen to bother him at all. You would think the popping sound of fans everywhere with their heads exploding when he does that, which is every at bat, would bother him but he doesn't flinch. He brings nothing to the table for the Braves. Yes, he is a warm body, and the Braves have a lot of experience bringing warm bodies in for short periods of time. Hopefully his time is close to being over.
I hope you're right. But, honestly, the Braves management seems to be handling their decisions with knee-jerk reactions in lieu of well thought out, statistical data enveloped in industry savvy. And, it seems to me that that same management has drank the wine of their 2021 miracle with the assistance of 4 declining-yet-adrenaline-induced-over-the-top play. We may be doomed to replaying the 2021 2nd half season over and over, but I dare say not with the same results of that lucky and special year.