Anthopoulogy: Scouting Casey Mize

If the Braves trade for Casey Mize, they won't just be acquiring postseason starts, they'll be making their recruiting pitch.

Atlanta needs more beards on the roster

Every trade deadline, teams acquire rentals.

Alex Anthopoulos is usually trying to acquire relationships.

The Braves have worked a bit differently under Alex Anthopoulos when it comes to the trade deadline - they usually stay away from rental players and they usually look for undervalued assets that they can acquire at less than market rates.

But when they do get a rental player, it’s not with only the last two months of the season in mind.

When the Braves claimed then-Rays shortstop Ha-Seong Kim off waivers to start September of last season, electing to take on over $2M in salary despite the team’s losing record, Alex Anthopoulos was clear about the method to his madness: Recruitment.

“Getting him in our clubhouse, him getting to know us, us getting to know him — whether he doesn’t opt out or does, we’re both in a better position. We know more about each other.” Anthopoulos said in early September, addressing the media.

Casey Mize presents the same opportunity.

Let’s build the Trade Card.

The Player

Who is he?

• Age: 29

• How he entered the league: #1 overall pick in 2018 (Auburn University)

• Contract: in his final arbitration year, earning $6.15M

• Position: Detroit Tigers starting pitcher

• Stats (conventional): 13 starts, 4-5 w/ 2.64 ERA. 71.2 IP w/ 72Ks, 16 BBs

• Stats (advanced): 3.00 xERA, 2.72 FIP, 2.3 fWAR, +12 Run Value (91st percentile)

What kind of player is this?

Casey Mize was on the verge of being an “imagine if he’d been healthy” story entering this season. After breaking out in his first full season back in 2021, finishing with 30 starts and a 3.71 ERA, Mize made just two starts over the next two full seasons owing to Tommy John surgery and a back issue that came up during rehab. He returned to the mound in 2024, but missed fifty games late with a hamstring strain. He remained healthy enough in 2025 to get 28 starts under his belt and this year, working around two short IL stints for an adductor strain, has made 13 starts.

He was an All-Star in 2025, with a first-half ERA of 3.15, but has taken it to another level this season: 2.64 ERA, one that’s mostly legitimate (2.72 FIP, 3.00 xERA) on the strength of his four-seam/splitter/slider trio.

---

Why Atlanta Would Want Him

This version of Mize would instantly slot into the #2 spot in Atlanta’s rotation behind Chris Sale for any postseason series. Mize’s 28.7% whiff rate would be the second-highest of any starter on the roster outside of Sale, and missing bats is what the postseason’s about.

It’s a great study in contrasts, too; Mize’s higher arm slot from the right side, firing four-seamers, splitters, and tight gyro sliders, is a significantly different sight picture for a hitter that just flailed against Chris Sale’s lefty sidearm sweeping sliders for seven innings.

In other words, Mize doesn’t just raise Atlanta’s ceiling this October. He changes the shape of a postseason series.

Adding Mize would meet Anthopoulos’ stated offseason goal of adding an “impact starter”, one that would bump most of the other options down one spot in the hierarchy.

But that's only half the appeal. The other half is giving Atlanta two months to convince Mize that he shouldn't leave.

---

Why The Tigers Might Listen

The main reason the Tigers might consider moving him is his expiring contract. If they’re not going to make the playoffs, cashing in on a desirable asset will get them a larger return than allowing Mize to walk in the offseason for only a compensatory pick.

Detroit entered Monday’s off day at 40-50, 4th place in the American League Central and with just a 10.9% chance to make the postseason, per Baseball Reference.

Despite the congestion/mediocrity of the American League this season, with only five teams with winning records and the current inhabitant of the final Wild Card spot being a .500 team, the Tigers have a tough hill to climb to remain in contention. While Detroit’s remaining strength of schedule this season is only 21st out of 30 teams, they still have one of the tougher remaining stretches before the deadline, meaning the next three weeks will likely determine whether they're buying or selling.

The Anthopoulogy Test

Let’s think about this as if we were Alex Anthopoulos.

He explicitly told us last year that he believed that getting a player into Atlanta’s clubhouse, even if only for a few months, could get the Braves a leg up on free agency discussions with that player.

“I always believe comfort and familiarity can only help, especially having been here and lived here and had multiple players tell me how much they love playing here and being here,” he told the media in September after claiming Kim off waivers for the season’s final month. “I feel this is an asset. Truist (Park) is an asset, the fan base is an asset, our clubhouse culture is an asset. Our manager, coaches, ownership group, management is an asset. So I think whatever exposure they get to that, maybe it can break a tie.”

He has also, on many occasions, expressed a desire to add an “impact starter” to the rotation, one that would be able to bump several existing or returning options into a lesser role.

In Mize, Atlanta could make a calculated gamble on a player from the South - Mize was born in Springville, AL, and played college ball at nearby Auburn University - that grew up watching the Braves, a demographic that’s historically been attracted to the idea of playing for the franchise.

The Braves haven’t made a habit of signing market-rate starting pitchers in free agency. But Mize represents a different opportunity. Rather than trying to win a bidding war in November, Atlanta could spend August and September making its recruiting pitch.

And the cost would seem to line up with Atlanta’s farm system strength of pitching, as Detroit’s lineup is full of young and promising hitters, but they’re facing the loss of multiple MLB starters this winter to free agency.

The Obstacles

There are obstacles on both sides that may prevent a deal from coming together.

For the Tigers, they may genuinely believe they can make the postseason. The Tigers are one of just two teams with losing records in the AL to have a positive run differential, with their +11 mark indicating that they’ve played 46-44 ball, not their current 40-50.

Several of those losses came during the absences of all-world starter Tarik Skubal, who missed six weeks after experimental elbow surgery. But even with that slump, Detroit has a winning record against teams over .500 this season, at 24-18, and could point to a fluky 9-16 record in one-run games as evidence that they’re better than they’ve represented in the standings.

At the same time, Atlanta may balk at adding another injury-prone starter to a rotation that’s seen more rotation injuries than virtually anyone else in the sport over the last two years. As a reminder, Atlanta’s 2025 Opening Day rotation was the first in MLB history to see all five starters end up on the 60-day injured list at the same time, with Atlanta scrambling for warm bodies during an injury-decimated second half.

Mize missed 17 days this season for an adductor strain, one that became “inflamed” soon after returning to play and required another 20 days on the injured list. Last season, Mize missed only 15 days for a hamstring strain, but that was a recurrence of a soft-tissue injury that cost him 58 days in 2024. And that’s all after he missed all of 2023 and most of 2022 for Tommy John and back surgery.

Trading for a starting pitcher, just for that starter to be unavailable due to an injury, would be a gut punch for an organization that’s been prone to holding onto its prospects in recent years.

The Trade Card

Trade Card

Player: Casey Mize
Position(s): Starting pitcher
Age: 29
Years of Control: Free agent after 2026
Remaining Contract: Approximately $2 million remaining (prorated)

Atlanta Fit: ★★★★★
Acquisition Cost: ★★★★
Likelihood: ★★★★

Anthopoulogy Score: 9/10

Best Argument For:

He’s a frontline starting pitcher that can slot behind Chris Sale in a postseason series.

Biggest Concern:

Significant injury history, including multiple IL stints this season

Verdict:

Casey Mize isn’t simply a deadline rental. He’s an opportunity. The Braves would be acquiring a legitimate postseason starter while simultaneously getting two months to recruit a Southern-born free agent who already grew up watching Atlanta. That’s exactly the kind of long-term thinking Alex Anthopoulos has built his tenure around.

Most teams will spend the deadline acquiring two months of baseball.

Alex Anthopoulos has shown he’s interested in acquiring something more valuable than that.

Relationships.

Casey Mize might be the perfect example.

Final Grade

Aggressively pursue.