Atlanta's Arbitration-Eligible Players Won't Get Clarity for a While

MLB Trade Rumors put out their arbitration projections today, and there's cases to make for virtually every player on the list.

President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos knows that he needs to find a new manager for the Atlanta Braves sooner rather than later, because baseball isn’t going to wait for him to complete that process.  I can’t move the calendar, right? So if we get to, whenever the last out of the World Series comes and free agency starts (and) we haven’t hired anybody, I can’t put it on hold, right? So you’ve gotta follow the baseball calendar.

One of the notable deadlines that will come this fall for the Braves is deciding on their class of arbitration-eligible players - do they negotiate a contract with them, file for arbitration, or non-tender them and let the player head to free agency?

Using the just-released MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projection figures, let’s talk about the cases for and against all nine Braves players who are eligible for arbitration prior to the Super 2 cutoff being announced.¹

Decisions to make on five arms

The Braves have five different pitchers that project to be arbitration-eligible this winter; let’s break down the list, in order of service time (in parentheses).

Joel Payamps (4.117): $3.4M

Payamps barely pitched as a Brave; he was claimed off waivers on September 22nd and got into only two games before the season ended. Despite that small sample size, however, this is one of the easiest calls for me: He’s likely being tendered a contract. His first two seasons in Milwaukee, he pitched to a 2.78 ERA with 136 strikeouts in 129.2 innings, good for a 153 ERA+. While his 2025 was disastrous, a 6.84 ERA, even that was unlucky, as his FIP was 4.54.²

The caveat here, and it’s one that will be repeated, is that this is dependent on the team’s offseason plans. If they add a starter and shift both Reynaldo López and Grant Holmes to the bullpen, there may not be room for Payamps and another out-of-options reliever.

José Suarez (4.064): $1.5M

The only way I see Suarez returning is if he’s on a minor league deal. Despite okay results in both Triple-A (3.53 ERA in 43.1 innings) and a small sample in Atlanta (1.86 ERA in 19.1 innings, including one start), he’s holding a career 5.30 ERA and is out of minor league options. While he’s looked passable as a starter this season (3.57 ERA in 12 starts between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors), committing $1.5M to Suarez likely isn’t in the cards for Atlanta. The fact that he wasn’t outrighted last week tells me they want him to return, but likely not at that price.

Alek Manoah (4.063): $2.2M

We talked about this a bit last week - Manoah’s a guy that has had career success, but is currently trying to make his way back from a catastrophic elbow injury. The fact that he has minor league options makes this a bit easier to stomach - he likely comes back and starts the 2026 season in Gwinnett.

Dylan Lee (3.150): $1.9M

Lee led the team in appearances last season with 74 and it sure seemed like he was feeling that workload down the stretch. But despite the second-half ERA of 4.50, Lee finished the season with a 2.08 ERA and .138 BA/.241 SLG allowed in September. He’s back and is the top high-leverage lefty in the pen in 2026.

Joey Wentz (2.166): $1.1M

This is the toughie. A first-time eligible in 2026, Wentz started hot when he joined Atlanta in July (a 1.50 ERA across four starts in July) but regressed to a 4.73 in August and 8.38 in September. Wentz is out of options and likely going to cap out as a long-man and spot starter for the Braves; if López and Holmes both end up in the bullpen, Wentz is the other half of the “this bullpen isn’t big enough for Payamps and Wentz” group. Let’s hope the Braves can make that starter acquisition before late November, when the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligibles comes around, but they likely try and get Wentz on a minor-league deal before that. I’d even be willing to pay Wentz a bit more for that flexibility, just like Suarez.

The four bats are tough to figure out

If you thought the five pitchers were twisting in the wind as Atlanta figures out the starting rotation situation, wait until you see the position player group. There’s two position groups represented, each featuring one major contributor and one guy we just didn’t see enough of to decide if he’s worth the likely price. Let’s take them by position group:

Outfield:

Jake Fraley (5.097): $3.6M
Eli White (3.140): $1.2M

White’s practically a no-brainer here - he’s the fastest player on the team, capable of playing all three outfield positions at a high level (and some first base in blowouts late) while also popping 10 home runs and stealing 10 bags despite just 271 plate appearances.

Fraley’s the much bigger question here. Claimed off waivers in mid-August, he got in just nine games (four starts) with Atlanta before going down with an injury. IF the Braves concentrate their spending on the “front burner” priorities of starter, reliever, and shortstop, Fraley might come back on a smaller deal with a chance to earn some run as the rotational outfielder whenever Jurickson Profar or Ronald Acuña Jr. get a day at designated hitter. If the team signs an everyday starter-caliber outfielder to rotate through the corners and DH, Fraley’s likely walking in free agency. Either way, I don’t see $3.6M happening.

Infield:

Vidal Brujan (3.014): $800k
Nick Allen (2.164): $1.5M

Unlike a lot of Braves fans, I can absolutely see a scenario where both of these guys are in North Port in February for spring training.

The problem is, I don’t see both of them breaking camp with the team for Opening Day. Let’s think this out. The starting eight plus the extra catcher make a full nine players, leaving four bench spots. If we assume two go to outfielders, Eli White and either Fraley or a trade/free agent, that leaves two spots. Are those two the utility players? Does Nacho Alvarez get one of the two utility spots, or does he go back to Triple-A to start 2026 (which would use his final option year)? Do they bring in a full-time utilityman, one with a more hefty bat and/or someone that can cover the corner infield if needed? I feel like one of these two returns, but not both. The good news is that the arbitration amounts aren’t too onerous; if Atlanta can’t find a trade partner late in spring and has to release one of the two, the termination pay cost isn’t too significant.³

And similar to Fraley’s fate, these two are tied to Ha-Seong Kim. If he departs in free agency, both of these guys are likely back until the Braves figure out what to do at the shortstop position.

The guys who aren’t here any longer

Last week’s roster moves, sending several guys outright to Gwinnett (and them later opting for free agency), meant that there are a few arbitration projections that MLBTR made that are no longer needed.

From a friend over at MLBTR, here are the now-departed players and their projections:

Jarred Kelenic: $2.4M
Alexis Diaz: $4.5Mv
Dane Dunning: $3.0M
Luke Williams: $800k

All four players are now free agents and free to sign with any team.

1. I think it’s going to be 2.139, so no additional Braves should gain arbitration eligibility.

2. Flipside of that FIP is his xERA was 7.39, so NOT GREAT.

3. Either fifteen or thirty days, depending on how late it is in spring training