Braves On the Brink

There are several players in camp who are essentially on their last chance to turn into productive major leaguers

Heads up, this newsletter is not sunshine and rainbows.

And that’s because we’re talking about failure today.

There are several Braves in camp that, while not necessarily on their final option years or on minor league deals, are functionally on their last opportunities to prove they’re MLB-quality contributors. Are these guys going to stick on the MLB roster? Or are they going to perpetually be in that 26th-man, tenuous hold on a roster spot limbo?

Let’s talk about it.

Elder’s shown improvement, but not statistically

In retrospect, Bryce Elder’s 2023 All-Star selection could go down as a really interesting trivia question for the Braves at some The Battery Atlanta establishment in coming years¹. “What Braves pitcher was an All-Star and then had an ERA over 6.00 just a year later?”

The young sinkerballer’s fastball has improved from a 2023 average of 89.5 mph to 92.3 mph (in his first outing of spring, too - we don’t have statcast data for his next two outings, either at Washington or at home versus Minnesota, but it’s unlikely that it went down). He also added a cutter, bridging the gap between his fastballs and the slider. Despite the extra velo and increased offerings, however, the results are merely just okay.

Off of the heels of a 2-5 record and 6.42 ERA last season in ten starts, Elder’s so far allowed two runs on eight hits in seven innings, walking three against just seven strikeouts.

In a vacuum it’s not bad, but those results are against the context of a rotation that’s not only stuffed to the gills with quality starters in Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López, and (eventually) Spencer Strider, but also has Grant Holmes, Ian Anderson, and AJ Smith-Shawver ahead of Elder in the pecking order.

While the velocity’s been improved off of 2023, I can’t help but feel like the locations aren’t. In those 10 MLB starts last season, four of his eight homers came off the slider. The locations are the issue here - all of those homers came off of sliders that caught too much of the bottom of the plate.

Bryce Elder’s homers in 2024, courtesy of MLB Statcast

To be clear, I don’t know if this is because of the extra velocity or some sort of tweak to his grip or what. I just know that it’s a problem that doomed him in 2024 and hasn’t yet been fixed.

Kelenic’s gotta figure it out eventually, right?

For two magical weeks, we saw what made the New York Mets take Jarred Kelenic in the first round of 2018’s MLB Draft.

After the outfielder took over in centerfield and leadoff for an injured Michael Harris II on June 15th, he hit .350/.403/.633 with five homers, two stolen bases, eight runs, and eleven RBI while powering Atlanta to a 10-5 record in the midst of a summer marred by significant injuries.

He hit just .171/.237/.311 with six homers over the remaining 63 games he played that season, being all but benched in September in favor of Ramón Laureano.

After an offseason where he worked with Tim Hyers in Kelenic’s winter home in Wisconsin, he’s again in a position to (possibly) play every day while superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. finishes his rehab from a torn ACL.

It also feels like his last chance.

If Kelenic isn’t able to meaningfully figure it out before Ronald comes back (which he’s indicated should be no later than May 2nd), it’s likely that there’s not another opportunity for him to play on an everyday basis for the next few seasons.

State of the position: Outfield

Kelenic’s making just $2.3M after settling with the team in his first year of arbitration - as a Super 2 player, he has three seasons of arb remaining before hitting free agency. Would Atlanta be comfortable paying Kelenic $4M or $5M as a fourth outfielder in two or three seasons? With the way many of the contracts on the roster are escalating in annual cost over the next few seasons, I don’t know if they will.

(We talked about it possibly being Jarred Kelenic’s last chance in this newsletter back in January)

Is it already too late for Luke?

Luke Williams is in the battle of his life for the utilityman job with converted outfielder Eli White.

And so far, he’s losing.

Williams, who is out of options, is just 1-15 in his seven spring training games so far (although that one hit is a homer, coming March 1st versus Toronto). Meanwhile, White’s been playing the infield² and is 5-9 with a run scored so far in spring.

White, a former college shortstop who has been an outfielder for the last few years, is also playing in the infield in an attempt to secure a job as a utilityman.

And he’s not bad so far.

Williams, who has been designated for assignment four times in his career (including once by Atlanta), might be heading for a fifth. He needs either Eli White to take the backup outfield spot over Bryan De La Cruz or to pick it up enough where he can win the utility job over White.

1. I’m picking Punchbowl Social. That feels like a very them thing to do.

2. Yes, including shortstop