Braves Opening Day Roster Projection 3.0: Making sense of the NRIs

The Atlanta Braves seemingly have everything buttoned up at this point...except for the bullpen, where competition continues

This one’s on me.

As much as we’ve talked about the different roster battles and how Atlanta was aggressively moving guys to minor league camp early in spring, I don’t think we ever actually updated our Opening Day roster projection since the last one came out in late January.

Braves Opening Day roster projection 1.0: Work to do, but this is a championship core already

Braves Opening Day Roster Projection 2.0: Is This It for Offseason Adds?

Now that we’re just weeks away from Opening Day, let’s look and project out all 26 spots on the Opening Day roster, focusing the bulk of our discussion on the questions still remaining for Atlanta to answer.

(BOLD denotes starters, ITALICS denotes a player on the injured list to open the season - No, an Opening Day roster prediction doesn’t need to list injured players, but as they’re folks who absolutely will be on the roster when they’re healthy, I wanted to list them.)

Catcher (2)

In: Drake Baldwin, Chadwick Tromp
On the IL: Sean Murphy
Others on the 40-man roster: None
NRIs still in camp: Sandy Leon, Curt Casali

Yeah, Baldwin’s probably making his MLB debut on Opening Day, thanks to Marlins reliever William Kempner hitting Murphy with a pitch and cracking a rib just over a week ago.

There’s a lot to like here - several of the pitchers have spoken highly of the 24-year-old backstop throughout camp, with those sound bites being louder and more public in the wake of Murphy’s injury.

While there would normally be an open question about which of the veterans Atlanta would want to carry behind Baldwin, Tromp’s status as the only one on the 40-man roster means he’s the favorite to backstop the position. The Braves will need to make an addition for Gwinnett, however; both Leon and Casali can elect free agency if they are not selected for the Opening Day roster.

Infield (5)

In: Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, Austin Riley, Nick Allen
Others on the 40-man roster: INF Nacho Alvarez (injured?), INF Christian Cairo (R5)
NRIs still in camp: 1B/OF Garrett Cooper

I’ve got Allen winning the backup job this spring, meaning Cairo will be offered back to the Guardians for half of the $100k cost to select him in last December’s Rule 5 draft. If they don’t take him back (which could happen, depending on their roster construction and the size of their domestic reserve list) and he clears waivers¹, Atlanta can assign him to the minors.

Cairo’s struggled offensively so far, just 4-19 with six strikeouts. Conversely, Allen’s hit well enough in spring (5-13, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI) entering Monday, so that and his plus defense means this is an easy call for Atlanta.

Alvarez, who hasn’t played in a game since being removed with a wrist injury on February 27th, is either going to start on the injured list or in AAA Gwinnett but he’s a depth option were another injury to strike in the infield.

Outfield (4)

In: Michael Harris, Jurickson Profar, Jarred Kelenic & Bryan De La Cruz (platoon)
On the IL: Ronald Acuña Jr.
Others on the 40-man roster: Carlos D. Rodriguez (already optioned to Gwinnett)
NRIs still in camp: Conner Capel, Jake Marisnick

Profar avoiding serious injury after jamming his wrist on Saturday means some additional run in spring for both Marisnick and Capel, but ultimately both guys don’t make the Opening Day roster. If Profar has a setback and isn’t ready for Opening Day, I like Marisnick as another defensively minded option to sub in late for BDLC over Capel, but there’s a handedness convo to have here, too - he’s a righty and Capel is a lefty, so offensive concerns may override the defensive edge that Marisnick holds.

I’m very curious to see what happens when Acuña returns, but my guess is that Kelenic holds onto the last spot over De La Cruz. Both men have options and could go to Gwinnett, but Kelenic is trusted by the front office as a quality backup outfielder that has both good speed and a strong arm. With Profar and De La Cruz both having defensive questions, it’d be tough not including a defensive-minded backup on the roster.

Designated hitter (1)

In: Marcell Ozuna

I don’t know if this is his last year with the team or if he’ll get a new deal over the winter, but expect big things from The Big Bear in a contract year.

Utility (1)

In: Eli White
Others on the 40-man roster: Luke Williams
NRIs still in camp: None

I discussed this on the podcast last week - Eli White is just a better version of Luke Williams. White’s faster, a better defender in the outfield, and hitting better so far this spring. While Williams has more playing time in the infield in the majors, that’s about all he has going for him at this point. I hope the Braves are able to keep him in the organization - they did last time they DFA’d him - but either way, White is primed to get into a lot of games as both a defensive replacement and pinch runner.

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Rotation (5)

In: Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López, Grant Holmes, Ian Anderson
On the IL: Spencer Strider
Others on the 40-man roster: AJ Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep, Davis Daniel, Dylan Dodd
NRIs still in camp: Chad Kuhl

Your top three are locked in, barring health, and everything we’ve heard and seen from the team so far this spring makes it sound like Grant Holmes is pretty locked in as well.

I’ve got Anderson taking the fifth and final spot, as of now, simply because he’s out of options and hasn’t looked terrible in spring. Yes the walks are a lot - nine in eight innings entering Monday - but I’m assuming that the team thinks that’s a small sample size fluke and that he’ll be close to his usual 10% rate.

Smith-Shawver and Elder will start off in Gwinnett but get plenty of time in the majors, especially if Anderson struggled or someone gets injured. The Braves have used between 10 and 13 conventional starters every season of the past four, so it’s likely both of those guys end up with fifty to sixty innings at least, if not more, this season.

Bullpen (8)

In: Raisel Iglesias, Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer (L), Dylan Lee (L), Angel Perdomo (L), Buck Farmer, Héctor Neris, Jake Diekman (L)
Others on the 40-man roster: Daysbel Hernández, Anderson Pilar (R5); Amos Willingham, Rolddy Munoz, and Domingo Gonzalez (all back in minor league camp)
NRIs still in camp: Dylan Covey

The competition is down to five players for the final three spots: Farmer, Neris, Diekman, Covey, and Pilar.²

While I’ve been impressed with some of the stuff from Pilar, I don’t know if it’s been enough to earn a spot on Opening Day. He’s pitched in five games so far, and while the runs allowed aren’t egregious (two earned in 4.2 innings), he’s allowed three walks and six hits (a 1.93 WHIP) against six strikeouts while looking dominant at times and shaky at others. I think he could be a good reliever over time³, but he’s probably not ready enough right now for me to give him a spot over a veteran like Diekman.

I chose Diekman over Covey for the final spot because of spring results (Diekman’s allowed four hits and one walk over 4.1 scoreless spring innings, but with five strikeouts versus one hit and one walk in five spring innings for Covey, but with just two strikeouts) and stuff - Diekman’s a low-slot funky lefty throwing 94 with a wicked sweeper, while Covey’s a traditional righty that’s more of a sinker/cutter/slider look (or was when he was last in statcast, back in 2023).⁴

But the biggest omission on the Opening Day roster, one that opened a spot for either Diekman or Covey to open the season with the team, is Daysbel Hernández going back to AAA.

I already speculated on the podcast that this could happen simply because he has minor league options and there’s so many quality NRI arms in camp. Since then, Daysbel’s done nothing to force his Opening Day case. The big righty with the bigger fastball has allowed four earned runs on eight hits and a walk in 5.1 spring innings, albeit with seven strikeouts. The Alex Anthopoulos thing to do here would be to keep one of the NRI relievers from being able to opt for free agency by putting them on the Opening Day roster in Daysbel’s spot while optioning the Cuban flamethrower to Gwinnett to open the season. Letting him “get right” in a closing role for the Stripers would have him poised to be one of the first additions to the pen⁵ should the Braves either see a veteran NRI falter (and get DFA’d) or suffer an injury.

Let me know your thoughts: Where did we get this right and where is the depth still not good enough?

1. Technically, you go through waivers first and are then offered back to your original club, although the acquiring team in the waiver claim process is still required to either abide by the original Rule 5 conditions or make a trade with the original organization for the player’s full rights. I can’t remember a time where a R5 player was claimed on waivers and a trade for his full rights was made.

2. We’re getting to Daysbel, promise.

3. I can say, though, that the Miami Marlins had no business not giving this dude a 40-man spot and opportunity to pitch in the majors. What have they been doing? It’s not like they had better options to run out there every day. If he makes it through waivers, which is an open question at this point, they need to stick him in their pen and let him eat.

4. Honestly, with Covey’s five-pitch mix - he also threw a sweeper and a changeup in the majors - I wouldn’t be opposed to Atlanta trying him as a starter in Gwinnett. He did it pre-pandemic for the Chicago White Sox, but just like former rotation mate Reynaldo López, he struggled to keep runs off the board and was moved to the pen early in his MLB career. Let’s revisit the rotation, yeah?

5. Complicating matters here is that someone will need to leave the rotation for the pen when Spencer Strider comes back, taking a bullpen job (unless there’s an IL stint needed for a starter). While Grant Holmes, again, makes a ton of sense to be sent back to the bullpen, I don’t think it’ll be an easy decision for the Braves to make, especially if he’s pitching well and Anderson isn’t.