Breaking Down 5 Realistic Braves Hot Takes for 2026
From MVP candidates to prospect timelines, where Atlanta could outperform expectations
Every season, I like putting together a handful of realistic hot takes before things get going. It’s a fun exercise and honestly a good way to check in on your own expectations. Some people lean pessimistic, some lean optimistic.
So far, 2026 has tested that mindset for Braves fans before the season has even kicked off. Injuries are piling up, concerns about the rotation are loud, and the Jurickson Profar situation has only added to the frustration. It is easy to see why some people feel like this season is already starting on shaky ground.
I just do not see it that way.
Even with everything that has gone wrong, I still think this is team can be a legitimate contender. That does not mean there are no risks. Health and performance are going to matter more than ever. But if you are asking me whether this team is closer to a bounce back or another disappointment, I am leaning toward bounce back.
That alone might sound like a hot take depending on who you ask. It shouldn’t be, however. Most projection systems and betting markets still view Atlanta as one of the better teams in the National League. The talent is still there for it to play out that way.
With that in mind, these hot takes are more player-focused. So let’s get straight into it.
Michael Harris has a 30/30 Season
Before Spring Training, this felt a lot bolder. Now it feels more like something that is right there in front of us. Through his first 30 at-bats this spring, Michael Harris II has already recorded ten hits and five stolen bases. More importantly, he has drawn four walks compared to five strikeouts. That might be the most encouraging development of all.
We already know what the potential power looks like from Harris II. He has consistently shown gap-to-gap pop, and he has been right on the edge of a true power breakout. He has hovered around the 18 home run mark over his first four seasons, finally hitting 20 last season despite a brutal first half. The extra base hit totals have been strong as well, clearing 45 in three of his first four seasons.
When you look under the hood, the data backs up the idea that there is more in there. His max exit velocity has been in the top ten percent of the league in nearly every season. Both his average exit velocity and barrel rates are above average. When he connects, the ball jumps off the bat.
The issue has always been the approach. Harris II has consistently run a chase rate north of 38%, which puts him near the bottom of the league. That leads to weaker contact, more swing and miss, and a walk rate that ranks near the bottom of the league. When you are constantly hitting from behind in the count, pitchers know they never have to come to you.
This spring, we are seeing a different approach. He is more selective. He is hunting his pitch instead of reacting to them. The results are already showing up, and if that carries into the season, it changes everything. The power jump feels natural if the approach improves. Getting to 30 home runs is not out of the question.
Michael Harris II’s speed has never been in question. Harris has consistently graded as an elite runner, sitting around the 85th percentile in sprint speed with even higher marks earlier in his career. The surprising part is that he has never really pushed for stolen bases on the base paths.
Some of that comes down to opportunity. If he gets on-base more, the attempts should follow. But the addition of Antoan Richardson at first base coach is another huge factor worth paying attention to. He has a strong track record of helping players maximize their baserunning instincts, not just their raw speed.
You can look as recently as last season for this example. The New York Mets in 2025 had one of the lowest sprint speeds in the league. Yet, they finished fifth in the MLB with 147 bags swiped, famously including helping a 13th percentile Juan Soto steal 38 bags out of 42 attempts. Much of the art of the stolen base is not just raw speed, but it’s the ability to read a pitcher and situation. When you add the raw speed Michael Harris II has, 30 bags seems easily obtainable.
If the discipline sticks, this is not that crazy. It might actually be the version of Michael Harris II we have been waiting for.
A Non-Acuña Brave Will Finish Top 10 In MVP Voting
The obvious choice for a Brave to finish top 10 in MVP voting is Ronald Acuña Jr. When he is healthy, he is in the MVP conversation. In both seasons he has played at least 150 games, he has finished top 5 in voting, winning the award in 2023. That is just the reality. We have already seen the ceiling.
The more interesting thought is who else could do so.
Matt Olson is an easy candidate. Even in what people called a down year, he still produced at a high level and anchored the lineup. He was an All-Star, Gold Glove award winner, and finished 18th in MVP voting.
If the hitters around him perform and he gets more consistent traffic on the bases, another 30 home run, 100 RBI season is well within reach. Add in his defense, and that profile plays in MVP voting.
Austin Riley might be the key to this entire lineup. If he gets back to his pre-injury form, this offense looks completely different. We have already seen what that version of Riley looks like. In his first three seasons as a major contributor, Riley made two All-Star appearances, won two Silver Slugger awards, and finished top 7 in MVP voting in all three years. If he is healthy, he absolutely belongs in this conversation.
Then there are the wild cards.
Drake Baldwin already looks like one of the better offensive catchers in the league, and the underlying numbers support what he did last year. Nothing about his production felt fluky. If he takes another step forward, voters will notice.
If Michael Harris II reaches that 30/30 level while playing elite defense in center field, it is very easy to picture him getting real MVP support as well.
The final possibility is Chris Sale. When he has been on the mound for Atlanta, he has pitched like one of the best arms in baseball, in a tier with only Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, and Cristopher Sanchez. If he stays healthy and puts together another dominant season, voters have shown they are willing to reward that.
There are a lot of paths for someone other than Ronald Acuña Jr to finish in the top 10.
The Atlanta Braves Starting Rotation Will Finish Top 10 in fWAR
This might be the one that gets the strongest reaction from fans. Actually, I KNOW this will get the strongest reaction.
If you ask around Braves Country, there is still a lot of concern about the rotation. That is fair. There are real questions about health, depth, and consistency. Chris Sale is a year older and often injured. Spencer Strider has not looked like his pre-elbow surgery self since returning last season. Both Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep are set to miss the first half of the season with elbow clean-up surgery, and we may not even see AJ Smith-Shawver until 2027. Reynaldo López and Grant Holmes bring their own injury question marks, and then there is the infamous Bryce Elder.
But even with all of that, projection systems still see this as a top ten group. That says a lot.
Chris Sale is the anchor. If healthy, he is still one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. That alone raises the ceiling of the entire group.
Spencer Strider may not be exactly what he was before the injury, but even a slightly adjusted version of him is still a very good pitcher. He does not need to be peak Strider to be a major positive. So far this spring, he has surrendered six hits and three runs, while maintaining an 11:2 K:BB ratio. His 0.96 WHIP is hopefully a sign of things to come.
Reynaldo López and Grant Holmes are two of the more debated pieces. In a perfect world, maybe one, if not both, of them are in the bullpen and not in the rotation. But both have shown they can be effective starters, and right now they are more than capable of holding things together.
In his lone full season as a starter with Atlanta, Reynaldo López was objectively a top 12 starter in baseball with a 1.99 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP. He may not repeat this success, but this spring across 12.2 innings, he is sporting a 2.84 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a 14:6 K:BB ratio. This is more than enough as he continues to ramp up.
Grant Holmes has done nothing but produce since making his debut with Atlanta at age 28. As a starter in two seasons, he has a 4.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 15.5% K-BB%. This spring, across 12.1 innings, he has given up a total of just three hits, allowed zero runs, and sports 16 strikeouts to 6 walks.
The real swing factor is what happens behind them.
Bryce Elder is currently slated to be the fifth stater. He has experienced the highest of being an All-Star, to the lows of being a bottom-10 qualified pitcher in baseball. When he is good, he records quality start after quality start. However, when he is bad, he will lose games by himself.
But I am not even considering Elder here in this hot take. If even one of Spencer Schwellenbach or Hurston Waldrep returns and contributes, the outlook improves quickly. If both come back and perform, this starts to look like a completely different group.
Then you have the prospects behind them.
JR Ritchie is a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball across most outlets. The former first-round pick has done nothing but produce since returning from Tommy-John surgery. In 2025, he rose through the ranks from High-A up to Triple-A, sporting a 2.64 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while showing the ability to command six distinct pitches. This spring across 12.0 innings, he has a 2.25 ERA, only allowing two hits and three runs, while striking out 14 batters to walking 5. His 0.58 WHIP is extremely impressive for a prospect who has yet to reach the majors.
For how impressive Ritchie has been, Didier Fuentes has one-upped him. Fuentes rose through the same ranks as Ritchie last season, but infamously got the call to the bigs just a few days after his 20th birthday. He earned that call-up with a 2.53 ERA and 1.14 WHIP as a teenager across three levels in the minor leagues, along with a whopping 11.2 K/. His big league debut did not go as hoped, but he has looked the part this spring.
Nine innings. Zero Hits. Zero Runs. Zero Walks. 17 strikeouts. The 20-year-old Fuentes has done nothing but dominate Spring Training. Yes, some of his competition has been minor leaguers, but he himself can’t even legally drink in America. He should be in college, let alone dominating professional hitters at any level. Just ask Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham what they think about him, as they have fallen victim to Fuentes this spring as well.
That is why the lack of an offseason addition does not bother me as much as it does others. The organization is clearly betting on internal upside, and there is a lot of it. If things break even reasonably well, this group finishing in the top ten is an expectation. If things really click, it could be even better than that.
Owen Murphy Makes His MLB Debut
This one is more about trajectory than immediate impact.
Owen Murphy and JR Ritchie have been connected ever since Atlanta took them both in the 2022 MLB Draft. Both prep arms displayed real promise, and both underwent Tommy-John surgery one after the other. Ritichie’s first full season returning from that injury was 2025, and for Owen Murphy, it will be 2026.
In a small sample last season returning from surgery, he looked like the same pitcher he was before the injury. Between one game at the complex and six in High-A, Murphy finished with a 1.19 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 0.77 WHIP, and a 5.7 K/BB ratio. This spring earned two appearances, allowing just one hit and striking out three in each of his two innings of work, surrendering just 1 run and 1 walk in total.
The Braves have not been shy about pushing pitchers who perform. We have seen it with multiple arms such as Fuentes, Schwellenbach, Smith-Shawver, and Strider in recent years. Murphy fits that mold.
In this small sample size, he actually has better metrics than all of those mentioned in the season they made their rise through the minor league ranks.
He is probably not someone you expect to see in Atlanta right away, but if he moves quickly through the system, it would not be surprising to see him get a look at some point in 2026.
Diego Tornes Earns a Double-A Plate Appearance at Age 18
This is the fun one. The Braves have not had a position player prospect with this kind of early buzz in a while. Not since the Ronald Acuña Jr days has there been this level of intrigue around someone this young.
Now a few years removed from international free agency restrictions, the Atlanta Braves made a splash in 2025 by signing MLB Pipeline’s number 15 international prospect, switch-hitting outfielder Diego Tornes, out of Cuba by way of the Dominican Republic for $2.5 million. The 16-year-old was already 6’2 and 180 lbs, giving his profile much room to grow.
Tornes already looks advanced for his age. The approach stands out, the bat speed is real, and the early production backs it up. He recorded a .279 average and 118 wRC+ across 32 games in the Dominican Summer League. He scored 20 runs, knocked in 13 RBIs, and had an impressive 24 stolen bases. In the DSL, one of the biggest indicators of maturity is walk and strikeout rates, and Diego Tornes proved the part with a 15.6% walk rate and 21.8% strikeout rate.
For a 16-year-old to show that kind of plate discipline is a big deal. He has even shown this plate discipline in three at-bats at Major League camp this spring.
The most likely path is a steady climb. Complex league, then Augusta, and maybe Rome by the end of the year. But I think he can push further. If he continues to grow into his frame and the bat continues to play, the Braves could get aggressive. His hit and power tools have the rare ability to click early and often.
We have seen them do it before. Last season, Atlanta promoted John Gil to give him a brief look at Double-A late in the season as the season began to come to a close. It would just be a small sample, but it would say a lot about how the organization views him.
Tornes will still be just 18 years old by the time the season ends. Last season, only two 18-year-olds recorded an at-bat in Double-A: Leo De Vries and Jesús Made. You can find their names at the very top of all prospect rankings. Only nine 19-year-olds made Double-A last year as well, including Gil. That is just how rare of a feat it is for a teenager to reach Double-A.
If this happens, the hype will only grow from there.