Is There Any Hope of Atlanta Fixing Alek Manoah?

The Toronto Blue Jays shockingly gave up on a once-promising pitcher despite a convenient way to stash him while he worked his way back from Tommy John

A seemingly overlooked addition in the wave of waiver claims by the Atlanta Braves in September was Alek Manoah. A former Cy Young finalist with the Toronto Blue Jays, Manoah’s been recovering from 2024 Tommy John surgery. He was placed on waivers late in the 2025 season despite being available to pitch in the postseason and having both additional years of team control and minor league options in his favor.

(And for those keeping track: Yes, we asked the front office to make this move, so even more proof that they definitely subscribe to Braves Today.)

Why was he available, and can Atlanta fix him? Let’s talk about it.

Let’s establish what he was first

The most glowing way to describe Alek Manoah’s breakout 2022 season was to explain that he had a 2.24 ERA across 196.2 innings and was 3rd in American League Cy Young voting, behind Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease.

However, that’s also perhaps the most misleading way to describe Manoah’s 2022 season. The results were stellar, sure, but the way he came about them wasn’t exactly something that can be replicated.

Manoah’s Fielding Independent Pitching mark of 3.35 and his Expected ERA of 3.31 were both more than a full run above his actual ERA, owing to some rough peripherals - a slightly-below-average strikeout rate of 22.9% and a well-below-average BABIP of .245.

Now, just to clarify, Manoah’s pitch-level performance was good in 2022. Holding a 99th percentile Run Value for his two fastballs, the four-seamer allowed a .214 average and .342 slug and the sinker was .221/.262.

And they did this despite merely pedestrian shape. The four-seamer had above-average Induced Vertical Break of 16.9 inches but below-average horizontal movement, while the sinker was exactly average on run with below-average vert. The Stuff+ readings for 2022 (using the FanGraphs model) was a 98 overall, so slightly below average.

What went wrong?

So a good, not great, season on the inputs in 2022 ended up in an All-Star campaign and a top-three Cy Young finish thanks to some batted ball luck.

A lot of that advantage regressed to the mean in 2023. Manoah’s BABIP rose from a .245 to a well-above-average .308 mark. His strikeout rate dropped by a few percent, from 22.9% to 19%, but his walks more than doubled from 6.5% to 14.2%. He lost half a mph on his four seamer and more than half an inch of vert, while the sinker lost eight-tenths of a MPH but otherwise kept its shape.

The per-pitch production change was stark: Manoah’s heater was hit at a .316 mark with a .592 slug, with seven of his fifteen homers coming off the four-seamer despite it going from 35.8% usage to just 29% and being outpaced by the slider.

Across his first 13 starts in 2023, Manoah had a 6.36 ERA and was sent to the minors, getting a “reset” at the team’s spring training complex in Dunedin before eventually coming back up in July. He was better after returning to the majors, but only marginally so, putting up a 4.91 ERA in his final six starts.

Manoah clearly wasn’t as good as his 2022 season’s surface stats would indicate, but he wasn’t as bad as 2023’s numbers would tell you, either.

I have a theory here, too. 2023 was the first season with MLB’s pitch clock, meaning pitchers were required to begin their pitching motion within 15 seconds with no runners on base and 20 seconds if there was a runner. Manoah, in 2022, averaged 20.7 and 24.8 seconds to the plate, respectively, a 10th percentile mark. Being a…bigger guy, listed at 285 pounds, it’s possible the combination of less time between pitches and an enforced 30 seconds between batters was harder for him to adapt to from both a pitching/mental perspective and a physical perspective.

2024 looked to me to be the “true” Alek Manoah - armed with a bit more extension and getting >30% whiff rates on his slider and four-seamer, Manoah was called up in May and gave the Blue Jays a 3.70 ERA¹ across his first five starts before going down with the elbow injury that would necessitate Tommy John surgery.

He’s not looked the same since returning

Manoah returned to the mound in July of this year, making starts at three levels of the minors before settling in Triple-A Buffalo around mid-August. And once again, the surface stats for Manoah were good! For the Bisons, he had a 1-1 record and 2.97 ERA across 33.1 innings, spanning seven starts.

But once again, the underlying ‘stuff’ painted a different picture. Manoah averaged just 91.0 on his four-seamer and 91.3 on his sinker, which was his primary pitch after returning. He struck out just 19.6% of batters faced with a walk rate of 12.8%.

The four-seamer, in particular, was hit hard - a .318 average and .682 slug, despite sitting about 16.5 IVB, roughly the same it was back in 2022. His slider, which lost two inches of horizontal movement from 2022 to 2023, gained only half of that back, coming in at 13.8 inches of gloveside movement.

Here’s his minor league statcast card, courtesy of Prospect Savant:

As you can see, he did a good job of minimizing hard contact…but when opposing hitters got one, it was likely going to be a barrel. As I mentioned earlier, both the strikeout and walk rates were well below average. On the plus side, he was still able to get plenty of chase on the slider and changeup, and on the rare occasion an opposing hitter swung at a pitch in the zone, they were making contact less than average.

But is he fixable?

Maybe?

I think that similar to Spencer Strider, a lot of Manoah’s future depends on the offseason and how his ‘Stuff’ is able to rebound with a fully healthy offseason. The difference between Strider and Manoah is that Spencer was working off a stronger velocity base than Manoah - there’s a big difference in dropping from 98-99 to 96, like Strider did this year, and Manoah dropping from 93 to 91. Spencer having an extra whiff/chase pitch over Manoah with that curveball doesn’t hurt, either.

I’d also argue that tweaking the arsenal for Manoah would be a good idea - it’s almost never a bad idea to add pitches, especially if you’re not worried about decay in an existing arsenal that was already below average on Stuff+. Lefties gave him a lot of trouble in the minors this year, so maybe a cutter to bust them inside? Completely buy into the chase with a 12-6 curveball, or lean into the lower spin efficiency with a knuckle-curve?

But Manoah getting back to being an MLB-caliber starter is definitely possible. And if it does work out, the potential reward for Atlanta is massive. Manoah is entering his second of four arbitration years in 2026 and still has a minor league option left. He made $2.2M last year and, despite the fact that arbitration can lower a player’s salary up to 20%, I’m assuming that Manoah and Atlanta reach a deal prior to the non-tender deadline for some amount less than $2.2M, but not significantly cheaper. I’ll project an even $2M salary.

If that does happen, Atlanta will likely invite him to spring training, but with the expected rotation glut next season (especially if they add a starter via trade or free agency), he likely begins 2026 in Triple-A Gwinnett. And the incentives here are huge for Atlanta. Even if he’s likely not the same guy he was in 2022 (which remember, was a bit of a mirage), getting him back to The Show means that you’ve added a Major League-caliber starter for virtually nothing - no trade acquisition cost and nothing but a 40-man spot and a few million bucks.

And given the price of a starter in free agency recently, that would absolutely be a win.

1. It’s important to note that this ERA was a bit of a mirage, too - his FIP was 5.18 and the xERA was 4.11.