Nacho Alvarez is Atlanta's Most Important Prospect for 2025

His development (or lack of development) at shortstop is going to shape next offseason for the Braves

The Braves are slowly turning around their farm system.

After years of being largely locked out of the international market coupled with promoting several prominent position players, the minor leagues were barren for high-caliber talent. While Atlanta was able to get some notable successes to the majors, like Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II, most of The Prospect Apparatus™ saw this as one of the worst farm systems in baseball.

While much of the apparatus still thinks that¹, the talent in the lower levels is recovering after several standard international classes, and some top prospects are clamoring for a major league call-up.

And yet, I think the most important prospect heading into the 2025 season is Nacho Alvarez Jr. Let me explain.

The offensive upside is undeniable

In his first taste of the upper minors last season, Alvarez solidified why he’s a future major leaguer with the bat. Despite a lack of top-end power (a 90EV of just 101.5 - MLB average is almost 104), Alvarez put up a .297/.398/.463 line in Gwinnett across 64 games with only 45 strikeouts (15.6%) against 37 walks (12.8%). While he struggled with groundballs (46% GB rate), he made a lot of contact both in and out of the zone (85.8% overall, 89.4% Z-Contact) without too much chase (23.3%).

In my looks at him, he excels situationally thanks to his barrel control - shooting a ball down the line with two strikes, hitting around what passes for a shift now, etc. He’s also good at picking his spots to sell out for some pull-side power.

Even if league-average power doesn’t come (which it still could - he played last season at just 21-years-old), it’s a high average/on-base profile. I’d go as far to argue that Alvarez is probably the best contact bat in the entire organization and could absolutely contribute at the major-league level after an adjustment period and more minor-league seasoning.

The defense is the question

Alvarez is another in a line of position player conversions out of college. He predominately played third base at Riverside City College prior to Atlanta taking him in the 5th round of 2022’s draft. The Braves also tried this with Sebin Ceballos (now traded) out of Oregon, who was a third baseman but never really got an opportunity at short and David McCabe, a college first baseman who was working at third prior to needing Tommy John surgery.²

But here’s the rub: Similar to Ceballos and McCabe, I don’t think Alvarez sticks at his new position of shortstop.

For the record, it’s not just me that thinks that - Baseball America says that “he’s a below-average runner who lacks the range for shortstop”, while Keith Law of The Athletic is even more blunt:

He’s not a shortstop, although he could play it in an emergency, and his body is trending in the wrong direction — he’s always had a thicker build and it might push him off the dirt entirely if it continues. He should spend this year on the major-league bench, backing up at third and second and providing a high-contact right-handed bat for pinch hitting.

A lot of casual prospect watchers are pointing to Alvarez’s end-of-season usage, where he made 30 of his 36 starts at third base, as some sort of claim that the org’s already reached the same conclusion. That’s missing some context, however, because Alvarez’s shift was right around the same time that third baseman Austin Riley went down with the broken hand that would eventually end his season. With Whit Merrifield already playing second base and Gio Urshela newly installed at third, Nacho was the “next man up” for extended run at third if there was an injury at the MLB level and so the team was likely thinking more about that scenario than giving up on him at shortstop after just 37 AAA starts at the position.

That said, however, both Baseball America and Keith Law are correct that the issue for Alvarez is range - he’s just not that fast (25.9 ft/sec in his limited MLB action, 17th percentile) and his defense suffers as a result.

Pure foot speed isn’t a prerequisite to be good at shortstop - Orlando Arcia’s 13th percentile sprint speed of 25.6 ft/sec doesn’t prevent him from having an 87th percentile range of +4 OAA - but it’s a helpful tool in the bag of a player that’s attempting to convert to a new position and doesn’t yet have the instincts and positioning to excel in that spot.

That’s why the 2025 season in Gwinnett is so important for Alvarez: If he can show real defensive development at short, it allows him to move from a tweener infield profile to one that can provide league-average performance both offensively and defensively.

And that has significant implications for 2026.

Orlando Arcia’s contract is almost over

When Arcia surprisingly beat out Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake for the starting shortstop job in 2023’s spring training³, President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos pounced on a contract extension opportunity. Signing Arcia to a three-year, $7.3M extension, AA threw in a club option year at $2M for 2026.

That club option’s likely to be picked up no matter what Alvarez does, but if Arcia’s being brought back for 2026 to be a starter, it leaves Atlanta in a tough spot: What happens after that?

The 2026 season will be Arcia’s age 31 season, an age where shortstops usually aren’t improving and getting better as baseball players. And let’s be clear: Arcia needs to get better. Ever since a surprise All-Star nod in 2023, Arcia’s been one of the worst hitters in baseball.

That’s not hyperbole, by the way: From June 20th, 2023 through the end of last season, Arcia’s had 935 plate appearances and all his corresponding statistics are either worst or very close to the bottom among all qualifying hitters:

.218 batting average - T-3rd lowest
.272 on-base - worst
.635 OPS - 2nd-lowest

As we discussed on the podcast the other day, Arcia’s somehow been even worse situationally:

RISP = .155 BA, .400 OPS
Men on base = .198 BA, .544 OPS
Runners on 1st and 3rd = .067, .277 OPS
Runners on 2nd and 3rd = .100, .414 OPS
Runner on 3rd, <2 outs = .048, .277 OPS

Alvarez showing that he can handle shortstop allows Atlanta to bring Arcia back as a backup, not the starter, but also provides some clarity on the 2026 offseason.

A lot more flexibility in free agency

It sure feels like Atlanta wouldn’t mind resetting the CBT this offseason. And if they can combine that with Alvarez successfully taking over at shortstop, it opens a world of possibilities next offseason with the free agent class.

You see, resetting the CBT does lower the team’s tax bill…but it also reduces the penalty for signing a player who rejected their qualifying offer. And if Atlanta feels comfortable that Alvarez can play short with Arcia as a backup and several international players (John Gil, Jose Perdomo, Ambioris Tavarez) as future options at the position, it allows them to attack what might be a strong pitching class next winter:

Expected free agents (likely qualifying offer candidates in italics)
Dylan Cease
Zac Gallen
Framber Valdez
Michael King (mutual option)
Jack Flaherty (opt-out)
Kodai Senga (opt-out)
Shota Imanaga (opt-out)
Shane Bieber
Walker Buehler
Justin Verlander
Jordan Montgomery
Zach Eflin
Ranger Suárez
Brandon Woodruff (mutual option)
Dustin May
Nick Martinez

Not even an exhaustive list, but it’s (as of now) one of the more stacked pitching classes in ages.

And not having a need for a starter at shortstop, combined with reduced Qualifying Offer penalties for not paying into the CBT, means Atlanta could go out and get a frontline starter to supplement their homegrown depth if they so desire.

While it’s still debatable if the Braves would actually sign a starter into his 30s on a long-term deal - they reportedly offered five years to 32-year-old Jeff Hoffman, as we discussed in the below-linked article - they’d be negligent in ignoring such a strong class.

Time will tell if Alvarez helps the dreams of Braves fans come true.

1. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN ranked this the 27th farm system in baseball, while Baseball America and Keith Law of The Athletic both have them 28th.

2. McCabe was already likely going to need to kick back to first even before the surgery just owing to the defensive actions, but it’s even more likely to happen now and it could be as soon as this season.

3. Both players were subsequently traded after the 2023 season, with Grissom bringing back Chris Sale (and a season’s salary) from the Boston Red Sox and Shewmake being packaged in the Aaron Bummer deal with the Chicago White Sox. Shewmake has since been DFA’d by Chicago, claimed and DFA’d by Kansas City, and was just claimed by the New York Yankees.