Projecting Atlanta's Opening Day Roster, Version 1.5

As the Spring Training games get started, let's update our projection to reflect the injuries and free agent signings

A lot can change in two weeks.

From when we released version 1.0 of the Opening Day roster projection to now, the Braves added multiple players via free agency, clarified the injury timelines on two known injuries, and lost two starting pitchers to cleanup procedures on their elbows.

Let’s update where we stand on the roster projection ahead of today’s first Grapefruit League game, coming on the road against the Rays in Port Charlotte.

(Bold denotes a player on the 40-man roster, Italics denotes a change from the previous projection)

Catchers (2)

In: Drake Baldwin, Jonah Heim
Injured: Sean Murphy
Others in camp: Sandy León, Chadwick Tromp, Jair Camargo

We originally had León penciled in this spot, but erasers are plentiful and the Braves found one in Heim. Signing just in time for pitchers and catchers to report, Atlanta brought in the 2023 All-Star and Gold Glover to provide a higher-quality bench option behind Drake Baldwin while the injured Sean Murphy works his way back from hip surgery.

Were Heim to be hitting when Murphy returns, we could see either two catchers available off the bench, which would allow the Braves to deploy Baldwin as the designated hitter more often, or they could try and flip him to a catcher-needy team for some sort of minor asset.

Infielders (6)

In: 1B Matt Olson, 2B Ozzie Albies, SS Mauricio Dubón, 3B Austin Riley, UTIL Jorge Mateo, 1B/OF Dominic Smith
Injured: Ha-Seong Kim
Others in camp: 3B Nacho Alvarez Jr., UTILs Kyle Farmer, Tristin English, Aaron Schunk, Jim Jarvis, Luke Williams, Luke Waddell; SSs Alex Lodise & John Gil

The change here is the final bench spot, which I’m giving to the newest addition, veteran Dom Smith. The real answer here comes down to one question: What do they want from this player? If it’s a warm body for the bench, then it could be anybody - Williams has done that role in the past, but by definition, anyone on this list could do that. If they want a veteran pinch-hitter off the bench that gives them emergency first base depth, that’s likely Smith or Farmer.

Outfielders (5)

In: LF/DH Jurickson Profar, CF Michael Harris II, RF Ronald Acuña Jr., OF Mike Yastrzemski, OF Eli White
Others in camp: Ben Gamel, Brewer Hicklen, DaShawn Keirsey Jr, Josè Azocar

The outfield still feels pretty set, barring either an injury or some sort of dominant performance in Grapefruit League play; the Braves rewarded Forrest Wall’s dominant 2024 spring training, .308/.400/.564 in 28 games, with an Opening Day roster spot.

If any of these other outfielders make the roster, it’d likely come at the expense of the 26th spot, but I don’t think it will.

Starting pitchers (5)

In: Chris Sale (L), Spencer Strider, Reynaldo López, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder
Injured: Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, AJ Smith-Shawver
Others in camp: Joey Wentz, José Suarez, Didier Fuentes, Carlos Carrasco, Martin Pérez, Elieser Hernández, JR Ritchie, Owen Murphy, Garrett Baumann

And here’s the first major change. With Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) having surgery on Wednesday (with Waldrep scheduled for next Monday), the rotation’s shuffling a bit. Grant Holmes is now in the rotation, with Elder still holding down the final spot. This has some repercussions a bit later in the bullpen, too.

Relief pitchers (8)

In: Raisel Iglesias (CL), Robert Suarez (RH SU), Dylan Lee (LH SU), Tyler Kinley, Aaron Bummer (L), Joel Payamps, Joey Wentz (LH Longman), José Suarez (LH Longman)
Injured: Joe Jiménez, Danny Young
Others in camp: Ian Hamilton, Daysbel Hernández, Dylan Dodd (L), Hayden Harris, Hunter Stratton, James Karinchak, Tayler Scott, Austin Pope, Javy Guerra

And here’s the other major change - with Holmes moving into the rotation, I imagine the Braves will default to Suarez for now. That being said, Ian Hamilton or James Karinchak getting back to their previous forms would probably be of more utility than a third or fourth lefty in the pen, one that can make spot starts for you but without a history of high-leverage innings.

As we said last time, this position feels like the one with the most variance and potential movement, however. On the whole, many bullpen pieces are largely fungible from season to season and there are so many “buy low” breakout candidates here that anyone can come out of spring looking like a potential relief ace in a small sample.

Is there any improvement to be had?

Despite the two rotation injuries suffered so far in camp, the Braves haven’t made any moves to bring in another starting pitcher, signaling that they’re happy with their depth. And honestly, as long as no more starters go down, that’s a defensible position to take - the 2026 season will be determined more by which version of the offense shows up than if they add a Zack Littell or Lucas Giolito to throw 130 innings of a low-4.00 ERA.

A strikingly similar rotation was good enough in 2023 because the offense was spectacular. And the 2026 rotation still can be, but more reinforcements wouldn’t be looked down upon by a large portion of the fanbase.