Sean Murphy's rib injury is a complication for the Braves
But it's also an opportunity, if Alex Anthopoulos wants it to be
The news that starting catcher Sean Murphy is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a broken rib went over incredibly well with a subset of Braves Country.
Never mind that a player can’t really help when they take 96 to the ribs and that this injury isn’t at all related to the oblique injury that Murphy suffered last year on Opening Day, an injury that he never really got right from.
But with Murphy almost certainly out for Opening Day, what are Atlanta’s options behind the plate?
The biggest offensive upside is promoting Baldwin
Atlanta’s top prospect is Drake Baldwin, and he’s who the fans most want to see get an opportunity.
There’s a legitimate opportunity for Atlanta here, as well - an evaluation period.
One of the most valuable things an MLB organization can get is information. In this case, it’d be a one to three-week sample of Baldwin against Major League pitching. There are a few outcomes here, most of them good:
Baldwin absolutely rakes. That gives Atlanta an opportunity to make sure Murphy’s truly 100% healthy and has had a chance to get his timing back at the plate prior to his return. The two players enter a time share once Murphy returns.
Baldwin’s just…okay at the plate. He likely gets sent down to Gwinnett when Murphy’s ready and Chadwick Tromp resumes working as the backup to Murphy while Baldwin gets near-everyday reps in Gwinnett.
Baldwin struggles offensively, similar to how Nacho Alvarez did last season when he came up to replace Ozzie Albies at second base. Murphy comes back and the original 2025 catching plan - Murphy getting 80% of the play time - goes into effect, just a few weeks later than originally planned. Baldwin takes the info learned from his major league stint back to Gwinnett to focus on improving and continuing to grow as both a hitter and a backstop.
In every scenario, though, Baldwin making the Opening Day roster does result in a downside, one that is undoubtedly in the forefront of Alex Anthopoulos’s mind.
Are they willing to sacrifice depth?
The 2021 season scarred Atlanta’s front office. Alex Anthopoulos has told us as much, explaining that the work to find catchers was virtually “traumatic” for him.
The Braves used seven different catchers that season1, giving playing time to Kevan Smith (27 starts), Stephen Vogt (22 starts), Alex Jackson (7 starts), Jeff Mathis (3 starts), and Jonathan Lucroy (2 starts).
The experience definitely changed Anthopoulos. Sandy León signed a minor league deal last season just days after Sean Murphy was placed on the injured list with his Opening Day oblique injury. He toiled all season in Gwinnett, never getting an opportunity to come to the majors, just in case another injury to Tromp (or Travis d’Arnaud) necessitated an emergency call-up.
And if Baldwin gets the nod on Opening Day, Atlanta might be drastically short on backstops.
As an XX(B) free agent2, Curt Casali can opt for free agency if he is not added to the major league roster by five days prior to Opening Day. León, who is out of options but has more than five years of service time, can choose to reject an assignment to the minors and elect free agency.
So the problem here for Atlanta is that promoting Baldwin over Casali over León for Opening Day means that the Braves could lose both of the veterans to free agency. Barring an acquisition, the depth chart would be Baldwin, Tromp, and career minor leaguers Dylan Shockley and Adam Zebrowski.
Does that sound like an Anthopoulos-type move to make?
The best offensive upside for Atlanta is to promote Drake Baldwin - we know what both Casali and León (and Tromp) are as hitters, and it isn’t much.
But the move that preserves the most depth in the organization is to live with the subpar offense of some combination of Tromp/Casali/Leon for a few weeks until Murphy returns.
What does Alex Anthopoulos do? We’re all going to find out together.
Although that was mostly a regular season problem - Travis d’Arnaud started every single postseason game en route to a World Series championship.
XX(B) free agents are players with six or more years of service time who finished the previous season on a major league roster but are now on a minor league deal. In certain situations, teams can pay a $100,000 bonus to push that opt-out date from before the season opener to June 1st.
If Murphy is out 13 games--do you think it would be worth it to start Baldwin's clock and to lose the rights to whoever we had to bump off the 40 man?