The Atlanta Braves Will Try and Fix Alexis Díaz
Atlanta grabbed a 2023 All-Star for virtually nothing, even though he likely can't be fixed
This is exactly the type of move the 2026 Atlanta Braves should make, even though it’s unlikely to work out.
After a weekend where they watched their young bullpen get obliterated by the Seattle Mariners, surrendering eighteen runs on twenty-one hits (including seven homers) in 10.2 innings, Atlanta jumped into the waiver market once again and grabbed former All-Star closer Alexis Díaz on waivers.
Why’d they make the move, and can they fix him? Let’s talk about it.
The name’s likely familiar
Díaz, 28, is the younger brother of New York Mets All-Star closer Edwin Díaz. Working the ninth inning runs in the family - after being drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the 12th round of the 2015 MLB Draft, Díaz finally made his debut at the age of 25 and almost immediately jumped into the closing role for the Reds. Notching 10 saves in the 2022 season with a 1.84 ERA, he finished fifth in the National League Rookie of the Year voting and appeared destined for greatness.
He began 2023 as Cincinnati’s primary closer and earned an All-Star nod for his efforts, logging 37 saves and 9 wins on the season. Cracks were showing in the armor, though; 26 of those saves came in the first half, accompanied by a 2.03 ERA, while the second half saw him put up a 4.61 ERA, only 11 saves, and a significantly reduced strikeout rate (13.7 K/9 to 8.2 K/9).
He mostly managed to get it done in 2024, finishing with a 3.99 ERA and 28 saves for a Reds team that failed to reach the postseason, but he wasn’t the same All-Star: His strikeout rate maintained the 2023 2nd-half slide, coming in at 8.8 K/9 (22.7%) while he maintained his high >12% walk rate, a feature of his game he’s never been able to shake.
After the wheels fell off for him early this season, where he allowed eight runs on eight hits (including four homers) in just six innings for Cincinnati, they sent him down to the minors and later traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a 22-year-old relief pitcher who had yet to pitch above rookie ball.
Sadly, his stint in LA’s bullpen didn’t go much better, with Díaz pitching to an ERA of 5.00 in his nine innings. Despite LA’s plethora of pitching injuries in the backend of their pen, they designated him for assignment over the weekend.
What went wrong for Díaz?
He lost his slider.
In that 2023 season, opponents hit only .153 with a .229 slug on the breaking ball. By Run Value per 100 pitches, which I’m using to normalize his slider results with those of starters that threw more, his 2.3 RV/100 was tied for 4th best among all sliders in baseball that year.1
And then in 2024, it just…wasn’t that good anymore.
It wasn’t bad, mind you - a .214 BA and .384 slug, but it wasn’t considered good anymore. Coming in at an even 0 Run Value and 0.1 RV/100, it went from 4th best in 2023 to 54th best.
And I’m not really sure why. The average velocity was virtually the exact same, 85.6 mph, although he did drop his slider usage from 51.5% to 42.1%. The locations drifted a bit up in the zone, too, about half a percent more, but hitters crushed them in a way that hadn’t before.
In 2023, sliders in the middle or upper third of the zone from Díaz resulted in a .211 average and .342 slug. In 2024? Those same pitches resulted in a .310 average and .500 slug.
When thrown a mistake, opposing hitters went from Tampa Bay Rays backup outfielder Kameron Misner (.213 average, .345 slug in 2025) to a better slugging version of Bo Bichette (.311 average, .482 slug in 2025). Not great!
Los Angeles tried various approaches to fix him, including shifting his arsenal more towards the four-seamer (63% to 37%), adjusting his arm angle slightly (up 8° from last year), and attempting to elevate the 4S more in the zone, but none of these efforts were successful.
Now it’s Atlanta’s turn. Color me skeptical - if the Dodgers, who are one of the better pitching development organizations in baseball, can’t do it, why do we think the Braves can?
But what matters is they’re trying
I keep coming back to something Alex Anthopoulos told us when he discussed Atlanta’s quiet trade deadline: “I viewed it as our offseason started now, and that's really the approach that we took […] We don't need to wait for November free agency for us to start our offseason.”
Similar to the acquisition of Ha-Seong Kim off waivers, the claims of Jake Fraley and Vidal Bruján, or the trade for Tyler Kinley, this is a move that could potentially pay off for 2026.
The stakes are incredibly low - Díaz is making a $4.5M arbitration salary, but the Braves are only on the hook for the remaining 21 days to finish out the season2. And if they can surprise us all and figure out what ails Díaz, there’s your closer for 2026 and 2027 for a combined cost of likely $10M-$11M in arbitration awards.
If they can’t figure out how to fix him, however, then they can non-tender him this weekend and he can join Jarred Kelenic on the unemployment line.
And this is the type of acquisition that the Braves need to be making. The actual cost is low, but the potential return, although unlikely, is extremely high if it proves successful. A former All-Star closer, to go along with a former Gold Glove-winning shortstop in Ha-Seong Kim, both claimed off waivers?
Acquiring both of those potential 2026 pieces without needing to move a single prospect, with the only cost being some 2025 dollars to evaluate them, is absolutely a good thing.
And hey, if acquiring Ha-Seong Kim helps his best friend Jurickson Profar, I wonder if there’s a corresponding boost coming for Jake Fraley.
Now let’s see what Ben Sestanovich, Assistant GM of Player Development, and his team can cook up over the season’s final three weeks.
Run Value by itself is an accumulation stat - the more innings you throw, the more positive or negative Run Value you can accumulate. RV/100 is the corresponding rate stat that makes these comparisons between starters and relievers possible.
That’s roughly $505,347.59, as you divide his $4.5M salary by a 187-day season for the per-day rate and then multiply it by 22 days.
Good read--thank you. Only somewhat related question. Has anyone looked into how AA's valuation of pen arms translates to $:WAR? He seems to apply some kind of premium.
I had the same question, couldn't find new news on him.