The Braves’ Payroll Picture: More Complicated Than It Looks

Atlanta’s winter will be shaped less by free agency stars, and more by the payroll line in the sand

The common assumption among baseball is that the Atlanta Braves need to spend money this winter.

After largely sitting out the offseason and resetting the CBT, signing only one multi-year deal (for Jurickson Profar) and building depth through spring training veteran adds (Alex Verdugo, James McCann) and a whole bushel of relievers on minor league deals, the Braves are projected to reverse course this winter.

FanGraphs wrote recently that Atlanta “has to pay a bit more” to build the position player depth they’ve been lacking in recent seasons, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan joined 680 The Fan to discuss Atlanta’s need for offense at shortstop and/or second base and reinforcements in both the starting rotation and the bullpen.

But how much money will the Braves actually have to spend this offseason? It might not be as much as you think. Let’s talk about it.

There’s a lot of money coming off the books…

2024 finished with an actual payroll just shy of $232M and a luxury tax payroll of $276.95M (against a third tier of $277M, which would have pushed Atlanta’s first draft pick back 10 spots.)

2025, if my math is right, should finish around $214M. And some of that committed money is going away this offseason.

Let’s break this into two buckets: pending free agents and likely non-tenders of arbitration-eligible players/declinations of club options.

For pending free agents, a total of $32M is being cleared from payroll due to both designated hitter Marcell Ozuna and closer Raisel Iglesias heading to free agency. While Ozuna could end up coming back on a one-year deal, as we discussed last week, I expect it to be on a discount of this season’s $16M commitment. Same with Iglesias.

(Erick Fedde is also heading to free agency, but his $7.5M contract for 2025 is being entirely covered by St. Louis, as I understand. If you scroll down on the cap sheet, I have adjustments for both what the Cardinals paid him while he was on their roster and our best assumption of how much they’re sending to cover the remainder of the deal, based on reports at the time of the trade.)

For the non-tenders and declines of club options, there are some likely moves and some maybes.

For “I’d be shocked if this doesn’t happen” moves, Atlanta will pay the $1.5M buyout to be rid of David Fletcher’s $8M club option for 2026, saving $5M off of his 2025 salary of $6.5M.¹

I also expect them to non-tender Jarred Kelenic, who made $2.3M as a first-year arbitration player under Super 2 eligibility.

That might not be all the non-tenders, however. Dane Dunning made $2.66M this year and has one more year of arbitration before reaching 2027 free agency. I’d consider bringing him back as affordable rotation depth/long man out of the pen, but the value proposition might not be there for Atlanta to extend him a deal. While I expect Eli White to be retained, due to making only $790k in his first (of four years) of arbitration, it’s entirely possible that they move on. Again - I want both of these guys back, but the Braves might have other ideas.

…but there are a lot of pay raises, too

Atlanta’s at about $159M in guaranteed money for 2026, so far, but those numbers will increase by more than you might think.

Several players have pay increases kicking in next season, most notably Spencer Strider, Reynaldo López, and Jurickson Profar.

Strider’s 2023 extension had his salary increasing in his arbitration years, which would have started this season, and significantly ramps up next year. He’s going from a $4M salary for 2025 to a $20M salary in 2026, escalating again to $22M in 2027 through the end of the deal.

So for those keeping score at home, there’s the entire Marcell Ozuna salary commitment of $16M that isn’t going away, it’s just being reallocated.

Reynaldo López’s salary goes up by $6M, from $8M to $14M, while Jurickson Profar’s suspension lowered salary of $6.19M² goes to $15M for year two of the pact. Breaking out the calculator, that’s a little under $15M. Raisel Iglesias made $16M this year, so you’re really only saving a little over a million bucks with him going to free agency.

To channel great American poet Billy Mays: But wait, there’s more!

Reliever Aaron Bummer’s salary goes up as well, from $3.5M to $9.5M. That $6M essentially offsets the David Fletcher savings, although non-tendering Jarred Kelenic still means you technically lower payroll heading into next year.

Say it with me: But wait, there’s more!

There are several club options that are almost certain to be picked up. Chris Sale is $18M, actually a discount from this season’s $22M, while Pierce Johnson’s and Ozzie Albies’ $7M salaries are unchanged.

We’ve got something coming from Grae later this week about Ozzie and how to replace his offense if doesn’t figure it out down the stretch, but either way I expect the Braves to pick up the club option. The difference in his buyout and salary is just $3M, which they’ll save by cutting loose the dead weight of Jarred Kelenic. Whether or not they keep Ozzie as a part-time/bench player or trade him if they make a signing for second base remains to be seen, but that’s another newsletter.

Tyler Kinley has a $5M option for 2026 that I expect Atlanta to pick up - why would they have acquired him at the deadline if that wasn’t in the plans?

Those four options all being picked up brings the guaranteed contracts for 2026 to about $191M. Factoring in a pay raise for Dylan Lee in arbitration to around $2M (he made just $1.025M this year), and we’re going to go with a projection of $193M, roughly $20M below this season’s $213M figure.

So, the Braves have $20M to work with in free agency, right? Not so fast, my friend.

Where is the payroll target?

How much Atlanta has to spend in free agency depends on where the final payroll target lands. The Braves have shown widely different approaches to payroll in recent seasons - it climbed for four straight years, peaking at the 8th highest last year. The CBT payroll was even higher, coming in just shy of $277M (4th highest in the league).

Knowing that Alex Anthopoulos likes to leave money available in the coffers for midseason reinforcements, is $270M (CBT) the final ‘all-in’ target?

Or is the goal to add, even if it means getting to the CBT line, but not exceeding it? That’d be $235-240M, depending on how much “dry powder” they want available for the deadline.

Or is the goal to replicate this year’s payroll, which fell well short of the first CBT tier?

There’s a big difference in approaching free agency with roughly $80M to spend (to 3rd CBT tier), $45M to spend (to 1st CBT tier), and $20M to spend (this year’s payroll). I don’t have anything concrete on this - this is speculation here, not reporting - but I don’t think Atlanta’s going to be content to ‘run it back’ in free agency and just make minimal upgrades for a second consecutive season.

But how far will they push payroll? Will the Braves use that extra revenue that they get from The Battery Atlanta to give out another “Atlanta Max” contract of $22M? Will they grab multiple starters (including one frontline one), a backend bullpen arm, and a bat or two for the offense?

Or will they be content to add one starter, one reliever, and maybe one offensive piece in a veteran utilityman, counting on the late-season improvements they’ve seen from the offense to get them back in the World Series picture next season?

Every indication we got heading into last winter was that Atlanta was going to grow payroll, but something clearly changed between Alex Anthopoulos and ownership (i.e. Atlanta Braves Holdings chairman Terry McGuirk), as the team’s cash commitments went down over the winter, not up. Several veterans left and were not replaced, while holes were patched with journeymen and budget veterans.

Does Terry McGuirk allow Alex Anthopoulos to reverse course and open the pocketbook again, or are we in for another winter of austerity?

It’s the defining question of not only this offseason, but potentially the long-term direction of this current roster.

1. Which he received to hit .232/.297/.261 between Double-A and Triple-A last year and .171/.214/.252 this year

2. If I calculated this correctly, Profar’s salary post-suspension is $6,193,548, so the difference here is exactly $14,806,452. The trick here is that the suspension was 80 games, but MLB players are paid on a daily basis (a 187-day season), so you have to calculate his yearly salary divided among that number of days and then figure out how many days of the season he officially missed for those games, counting rain-outs, etc.