Spencer Strider. Spencer Schwellenbach. Reynaldo López. Hurston Waldrep. Robert Suarez. Joe Jiménez.
For months, every injury update has carried an implicit second question:
Could they be back for October?
On August 25, we’re finally reaching the point where the calendar is answering for them. And the answers aren’t what Braves fans were hoping for.
“The window’s getting smaller for them,” Walt Weiss told the media on Tuesday afternoon. “I’m not ruling it out, but you just do the math on those types of things.”
Let's talk about it.
Reynaldo López is the exception
López has been out since the start of August with left knee inflammation, which infamously caused him to get scratched less than two hours before game time. Martín Pérez took the ball on roughly 35 minutes' notice, taking a no-hitter into the 7th in an 8-3 win.
López made his first rehab start on Sunday for Triple-A Gwinnett, firing four scoreless innings with three hits and three strikeouts. He threw 50 pitches, inducing 25 swings (six whiffs) and averaged only 93.5 mph on his four-seam fastball (nearly a full MPH below his season average).
And so the Braves are going to ask him to make another one. Walt Weiss confirmed on Tuesday that López will get the ball on Friday for the Stripers, with a goal of 65 pitches. A 65-pitch target also suggests Atlanta isn't rushing him back, and there's probably at least one more rehab outing coming before he's ready for a traditional starter's workload.
Given the lower velo, I’m fine with slow-playing this. But the fact that the rotation’s currently full - overloaded, actually, given that they’re temporarily running a six-man - means that the Braves can take their time with López.
It also prompts a question: What exactly is Reynaldo López returning to do? That’s worth exploring.
The team has insisted somewhat recently that they still view him as a starter, but he’s been an effective reliever before, and Atlanta (improbably) has too many starters before accounting for López.
Given the calendar, do you need to build him all the way back to a 75-85 pitch count before returning him from the injured list? Or does the “27 outs” philosophy, combined with the currently stocked bullpen (and the additional roster spot on September 1st) mean that there’s another option here?
If López can get to that 60-75 pitch range, but with better velo than we saw on Sunday, that’s potentially twelve to fifteen extremely useful October outs, whether he’s starting or following someone else.
And honestly, López looks like the only injured Braves starter whose October role is worth debating, because he's the only one currently close enough to reasonably have one.
Robert Suarez is racing the calendar
Walt Weiss said that Suarez is “still moving slowly” in his throwing progression - he recently extended his throwing progression to 100 feet to build up his arm strength, but hasn’t yet thrown off a mound.
And that’s a bit concerning, as it’s a prerequisite to a full bullpen session, and usually multiple of those are required (some involving live hitters) before a rehab assignment can happen.
Even if Weiss’s timeline of Suarez being “close” to that bullpen session is correct, that’s still cutting things close.
We’re over two months since Suarez last threw in a game (June 19th) and even if Suarez gets onto a mound soon, there’s still a progression between his first bullpen and a major-league game: additional bullpens, likely work against hitters and some form of game action. The Braves haven’t provided a timetable for those steps.
And that’s the problem. There isn’t much timetable left. Even the rehab outings are under a time crunch: the end of Gwinnett’s season is on September 20th.
To be clear, the Braves haven’t given a timetable other than Alex Anthopoulos discussing Suarez’s target being “October” back at the deadline, and Walt Weiss saying there’s still a chance Suarez can be back during the regular season.
If he makes it back? That’s huge, adding another high-leverage arm towards the 27-outs puzzle. But given the lack of wiggle room with the schedule and any setback essentially ending his season, it feels more possible than probable based on what we know so far.
“You just do the math”
The trio of Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, and Hurston Waldrep are all postseason-caliber arms that are currently in the midst of throwing programs. Schwellenbach started his in June, while both Waldrep and Strider started theirs earlier this month.
No meaningful progression was announced today in their efforts to return this season. And at this point, it’s looking highly unlikely.
It’s a much longer lift to get a starter back than a reliever. And in the case of Suarez, who is ahead of all of these guys, we’re still discussing a best-case scenario of late September. The number of steps in front of these guys is becoming daunting:
throwing progression → mound work → live BP → rehab assignment to build workload → MLB activation
And even if everything proceeds perfectly, there just aren’t many calendar squares left.
But I want to go back to the specifics of Weiss’ quotes here.
“The window’s getting smaller for them. I’m not ruling it out, but you just do the math on those types of things.”
They’re not officially ruled out of returning for 2026, but it’s also unreasonable to expect them back at this point. Important distinction. Teams rarely close doors before it's medically necessary/certain. But when the team’s manager is publicly saying “do the math”, it’s very easy to see the calendar and interpret what he means.
Joe Jiménez is finally throwing again
Joe Jiménez was quietly one of the most dominant relievers of 2024, putting up a 2.62 ERA with a statcast card almost entirely full of bright red.
But a late season knee injury, one that he pitched on despite it sapping his fastball velo, was eventually too much to bear and he had an arthroscopic procedure on it soon after the season wrapped.
He still hasn’t returned.
He needed two additional surgeries on the knee over the next year and a half, putting his career into question. Things have started to turn in his favor, though, with the righthander completing his fifth bullpen session and remarking after on social media that he feels the best he has since the injury.
“There’s still work to do, but I can feel it: I’m getting closer to playing again. One day at a time. Keep pushing.”
It’s genuinely good news! It’s just probably not 2026 Braves news.
After everything Jiménez has been through over the last two years, including potentially having the game taken away from him abruptly, don’t judge his progress by whether he makes it into a game this season. Getting back onto a mound and completing five bullpens is itself meaningful progress.
If Jiménez wants to continue his comeback, a minor-league/NRI reunion could make sense for both sides. Atlanta knows his medical history and rehab process better than anyone, while Jiménez would get an opportunity to finish what has effectively been a two-year road back to competition.
Atlanta is narrowing down its list of October pitchers
For months, there were all these hypothetical additions sitting on the IL.
Now we can remove the names that probably aren’t coming.
Schwellenbach
Strider
Waldrep
The October pitching staff increasingly has to be built around the healthy pitchers Atlanta already has, with López as the realistic reinforcement and Suarez as the potential wild card.
It’s possible that there’s a prospect addition or two late in the year, after a September audition (I’m going to talk about Blake Burkhalter here pretty soon), but the guys you have are the guys you have, and there’s not a lot of help coming.
The Braves don’t have to officially rule out Strider, Schwellenbach or Waldrep today. There’s no benefit to doing so.
But there’s a difference between leaving a door open and expecting someone to walk through it.
With five weeks remaining in the regular season, Atlanta’s October pitching staff is beginning to come into focus. López is working toward joining it. Suarez still has a chance.
For everyone else, you just do the math.