The Cases For and Against Re-Signing Max Fried

The Braves are facing the prospect of their ace lefty walking in free agency, but what's a fair price for his services on the open market and does he get it from Atlanta?

Many in Braves Country have resigned themselves to losing starting pitcher Max Fried in this winter’s upcoming free agency.

After all, under President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos, Atlanta has been one of the most aggressive teams in baseball at signing their young stars to contract extensions and recent history tells us that if a key member of the roster doesn’t agree to a deal prior to reaching free agency, they’re likely not coming back.¹

With Fried being from the West Coast, growing up in Santa Monica, CA and being drafted out of Harvard-Westlake High School by the San Diego Padres, the general consensus is that he’ll head out west, signing with either San Diego, the San Francisco Giants, or the dreaded Los Angeles Dodgers.²

I don’t know if it’s that likely reality that’s causing it, but there’s a vocal minority of Braves fans arguing that he shouldn’t even be in Atlanta’s plans - that Fried isn’t that good of a pitcher and shouldn’t be a priority for the Braves in free agency.

Which is nonsense. Alex Anthopoulos said as much, telling me and other reporters last Friday that he personally “really like(s) Max - forget the fact that he’s one of the best left-handed starters in the game and this and that, but the way he’s carried himself (and) handled himself in the community (and) with us […] He’s been a partner on anything we needed, as an organization, from him. I’m a big fan.”

Let’s break down the cases for and against Atlanta signing Max Fried, as well as preview some of the financial projections for his eventual contract and some likely comparisons.

His production, both regular season and postseason, is surprising

Fried’s quietly been one of the most reliable starting pitchers in the regular season. Debuting in 2017, he was up and down for two years before locking down a rotation spot for the 2019 season, making 29 appearances but just nine starts in 2017 & 2018.

So let’s look from 2019 through now, where Fried went 71-31 (.696) with a 3.06 ERA, striking out 797 in his 824.2 innings against 214 walks.

In those regular seasons, there’s a total of nineteen starting pitchers who have gotten the ball more than Max Fried’s 142 starts in that period.

Know how many had a better ERA? Exactly one, Gerrit Cole. In 158 starts with the Houston Astros and New York Yankees, Cole put up a 2.98 ERA in that same span, a .705 winning percentage.

Everyone else is below Max Fried’s 3.06 on the ERA charts, and it’s some impressive names: Zack Wheeler (3.14), Zac Gallen (3.29), Dylan Cease (3.75), Aaron Nola (3.89), Pablo López (3.89).³

In a lot of measures of pitcher effectiveness, Fried’s right there with the best - he’s tied with Nola and Cole in both complete games (six) and shutouts (four), having the third-lowest walk total (326, a 2.3 BB/9 that’s tied for 4th-best) and the 2nd-fewest homers allowed with just 70, a 0.8 HR/9 rate that’s bested only by Logan Webb’s 60 homers at a 0.6 HR/9 rate.

But as good as Fried’s been in the regular season, he’s been just as iffy in the postseason.

He’s started 12 games and appeared in 20 total in his career, putting up a 2-5 record and 5.10 ERA. And before we think some bad relief outings skewed that number, his ERA as a postseason starter is 4.90.

Of the eight pitchers to have at least 67.0 postseason innings since 2018, Max Fried’s 5.10 ERA is dead last⁴. Clayton Kershaw, who has a reputation as not showing up in October, has a 4.73 in that same period and six wins to Fried’s two wins and 5.10.

Despite higher-profile successes, like game six of the 2021 World Series, his overall body of work in October is lacking compared to his peers.

The man’s posted despite injured list placements

Another generalization that’s popped up in that segment of the fanbase that wants to move on from Fried is that he’s injury-prone.

The reality is a bit more complicated.

As we mentioned in the above section, only nineteen pitchers have made more starts than Fried since 2019. When you adjust to look at innings rather than starts, it’s the same group of pitchers.

So in workload, Fried’s a top-20 pitcher in the sport.

But Fried’s done it despite frequent injured list placements, missing time every single season of the six he’s been a starter. Per the Baseball Prospectus IL Tracker, Fried’s gone on the injured list nine times in this same six-year span that we’ve been looking at, missing a total of 200 days.

2019: Blister (11 days)
2020: Muscle spasms in back (9 days)
2021: Strained hamstring (21 days), blister (11 days)
2022: Concussion (10 days)
2023: Hamstring (16 days), forearm strain (90 days), blister (15 days)
2024: Ulnar neuritis⁵ (17 days)

Because of that missed time, he’s thrown ‘only’ 824.2 innings in that same sample, 17th out of 20 pitchers⁶. Only Zac Gallen (815.1 IP), Marcus Stroman (793.1 IP) and Yusei Kikuchi (809.2) have pitched less, with Stroman and Kikuchi having a combined 15 relief appearances as they were occasionally deployed out of the bullpen.

Fried’s also never exceeded 185.1 innings (2022) in any regular season as a full-time starter, with two seasons of exactly 165.2 and a tally of 174.1 this year.

At least his stuff should age well, right?

The one advantage that Max Fried has going for him that a lot of top-tier free agent pitchers don’t is his repertoire - unlike many, Fried legitimately throws seven different pitches. He mixes and matches them well, with four of them in the double digits for usage and being able to mix and match based on what’s working and what’s not that day.

One constant behind all of his pitches has been the ability to limit hard contact, especially in the air. Fried’s ground ball rate of 59.2% is 96th-percentile in MLB this season, 2nd-best for starters behind just Framber Valdez. His average exit velocity allowed of just 86.3 mph is 95th percentile and 4th-best among starters, behind just Hunter Brown (86.2), Kyle Hendricks (85.9), and Michael King (85.7).

The reason that this arsenal should age well is because he’s not overly reliant on his fastball - while the four-seamer is his most-used pitch, it’s still thrown only 34% of the time this season. The four-seamer is one of three fastballs that Fried uses, with the lefty also going with a sinker (15.6%) and the occasional cutter (4.7%) to keep hitters honest.

Rather than rely on the heaters to put away batters, they’re simply an amuse bouche to the rest of Fried’s arsenal. His curveball remains one of the better pitches in baseball on a rate basis, putting up a +5 Run Value (tied with teammates Charlie Morton & Reynaldo López as well as others for 10th overall) despite just 21% usage. To keep opposing hitters guessing, he also has a sweeper, a slider, and a changeup that he can mix in at will.

It’s one of the largest arsenals in baseball.

It’s also not very velocity-dependent.

Fried’s heater averages just 93.9 mph, 45th percentile in all of baseball and just barely above average for lefties (93.2 mph). Despite being below-average in both velocity and movement (11 IVB, 0.1 IHB), it gets positive results thanks to locations and usage of the pitch.

As pitchers get older, locations and sequences tend to hold better than velocity.

Fried’s mechanics are generally seen as pretty consistent and repeatable, as he’s worked out how to execute his pitches without laboring in his movements or compromising his mechanics in the name of velo gains. Again, something that should bode well as he ages. From a biomechanical standpoint, Fried’s not as scary as many of the other options on the market this offseason.

“We’d love to have him back…but 30 teams would love to have Max Fried, right?”

And now the big question: Where does Max Fried sign for 2025?

If I knew, I’d be calling Alex Anthopoulos, who said the above quote on Friday.

But what we can do is discuss what the likely destinations are and what the money might be.

Spotrac has placed a “market value” on Fried of $22.7M annually, estimating that the proper value for the lefty is a six-year, $136.3M contract.

That’s almost exactly the deal that Patrick Corbin got from the Washington Nationals entering 2019 (his age-29 season) and just a tick below Carlos Rodón’s six-year deal signed with the New York Yankees prior to 2023 (his age-30 season). That Yankees pact guaranteed Rodón $162M, an AAV of $27.8M.

I’m thinking Rodón’s deal is the target for Fried.

And obviously, that’s a problem for Atlanta. Under Alex Anthopoulos, who arrived in Atlanta right as Fried was getting to the big leagues, the Braves have never given a multi-year deal⁷ of more than $22M AAV.

But Atlanta’s tried - the Freddie Freeman proposal was reportedly $140M over six years, an AAV of $23.3M, while the Aaron Nola offer was reportedly⁸ the Rodón contract: six years, $162M, equaling a $27M AAV.

I’m of the belief that the Braves would be willing to extend to that $22M number and potentially exceed it for Fried - not to the tune of $27M like what was rumored to be offered to Nola, but maybe a million or two over, similar to what Freddie was offered.⁹

If you gave Atlanta the option to re-sign Fried on Spotrac’s $22.7M AAV offer right now, I believe the Braves would take it in a heartbeat.

But I don’t expect it’ll come in that low. While we don’t know for sure which other pitchers will decline options and enter the market, Fried’s considered either the 2nd-best starter available behind Corbin Burnes or potentially the 3rd-best if Blake Snell opts out. Everyone else that could opt-out - your Jordan Montgomery, your Robbie Ray, your Michael Wacha - would be a tier below Fried.

And because of that, there’s going to be interest. Compounding matters is the fact that Fried isn’t represented by uber-agent Scott Boras, who seems to drag out his players’ free agency as long as possible, sometimes to their detriment (see Montgomery, Jordan).

While I believe the Braves will have a good chance at retaining Fried if his offers are all in the ballpark of $22M-25M AAV, I expect there’s one team that will value him more than that, pushing the annual salary figure closer to $30M than $20M.¹⁰ Perhaps the Padres, faced with Joe Musgrove’s pending Tommy John surgery keeping him out until mid-2026, pony up $28M AAV to get Fried so they can roll out a Fried/Dylan Cease/Michael King/Yu Darvish quartet. Maybe the Dodgers decide that they need to reinforce an injury-riddled rotation and throw $30M AAV at Fried on a six or seven-year pact.¹¹

And based on everything we know about the Atlanta Braves under Alex Anthopoulos, that’s just not a contract that they’re going to match.

Hate it for you, Atlanta Braves Foundation.

1. See Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson

2. I’d put those three teams and the Braves down as the four favorites in the clubhouse right now, but don’t sleep on Fried joining Swanson with the Chicago Cubs. I’ve got a feeling.

3. The worst in that group, if you were curious: Patrick Corbin, with a 5.11 ERA and .379 winning percentage. Remember that name, he’s coming back up later.

4. Yes there’s injury caveats here - losing 15 pounds because of the flu in 2022, coming off the IL to start in 2023. It’s still not a great overall body of work.

5. “Ulnar neuritis” is nerve inflammation, but it sounds a lot worse as “neuritis”, doesn’t it?

6. The leaders in this sample? José Berríos (1009.1 IP), Zack Wheeler (1024.2 IP), and Aaron Nola (1052.1). One of these things is…uh, not like the other.

7. Josh Donaldson received $23M in a one-year deal for the 2019 season

8. For what it’s worth, Anthopoulos pushed back on this, saying he saw the reports of the offer that originated with Philadelphia media and they were “inaccurate”. Nola ultimately re-signed with Philly for seven years and $172M, a $24.6M AAV.

9. Unlike Freddie, Dansby’s offer never seemed to improve on the initial 6-year, $100M deal the team proposed over the summer. He ultimately signed for seven years and $177M, which is $25.3M AAV. Completely understandable. No hard feelings, pal - go get that BAG.

10. For what it’s worth, I asked this question on twitter and almost 68% of respondents thought Fried would get more than the prediction of $22.7M.

11. With half the money deferred until the heat death of the universe