The Path Is Clear for Drake Baldwin to Run Away With Rookie of the Year

With Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers going on the injured list over the weekend, Atlanta has a chance to get something out of this lost season

The Atlanta Braves’ farm system, for all its lack of acclaim among The Prospect Apparatus™, has quietly delivered consistent MLB talent over the past few seasons.

Every year, it seems like the system produces at least one player who either debuts and never looks back, or moves from depth piece to everyday contributor:

• 2022: Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider, Michael Harris II, Dylan Lee

• 2023: Bryce Elder

• 2024: Spencer Schwellenbach

• 2025: Drake Baldwin, AJ Smith-Shawver

And Baldwin’s the one I want to talk about, because he has a chance to do something no one on that list, not even 2022 NL Rookie of the Year Michael Harris, pulled off:

Earn the Braves an extra first-round draft pick.

And thanks to a shakeup over the weekend, the path just got a lot clearer.

Let’s talk about it.

Where’s the Pick Coming From?

Since 2022, MLB’s Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) program has rewarded teams for promoting top prospects on Opening Day instead of manipulating service time. To earn the extra pick, a team needs three things:

1. A player who appears on two of the three accepted Top 100 lists (Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN)

2. Who still has rookie eligibility when the season starts

   • (That’s fewer than 130 career at-bats, 50 innings, or 45 active MLB roster days - IL time doesn’t count, which mattered for AJ Smith-Shawver)

3. Who earns a full year of service time by spending 172 days on the active roster - essentially, no more than two weeks in the minors all year.

Players don’t have to win Rookie of the Year to earn their team a pick. A top-three finish in MVP or Cy Young voting also counts. The Royals picked up an extra first-rounder - No. 28 overall¹ - in 2025 thanks to Bobby Witt Jr.'s MVP runner-up finish in 2024.

Sidebar: Michael Harris wasn’t eligible for the pick because he didn’t accrue a full year of service time - he was called up May 28. Winning Rookie of the Year granted him retroactive service time, but not eligibility for future PPI rewards.

Back to Baldwin.

He opened the 2025 season as a Top 100 prospect on at least two of the three lists and hadn’t yet debuted - and he’s been on the active roster all year so far.

So now the question becomes:

What Does Baldwin Need to Do to Win?

Drake Baldwin is quietly having one of the best rookie seasons in the National League. As of Monday’s series opener vs. Milwaukee, among qualified NL rookies:

• AVG: .282 (1st)

• OBP: .347 (3rd)

• SLG: .465 (T-1st)

• HR: 11 (2nd)

• RBI: 41 (2nd)

• fWAR: 2.0 (T-2nd)

And while .282/.350/.465 is still an excellent line, it’s actually a step back from where he was heading into the summer.

Through the end of May: .318/.364/.518.
Since June 1: just .244/.333/.441.

That mini-slump, mild as it is, is one of the reasons the Braves have recently ramped up Marcell Ozuna’s DH usage. President of Baseball Ops Alex Anthopoulos reminded reporters that Snitker rides the hot hand:

“Murph and Baldwin got hot and they [both] started playing. Marcell played less. And now in the last week… Marcell’s gotten a few more starts. When they’re playing well, they gain playing time.”

But the biggest obstacle between Baldwin and the Rookie of the Year award might’ve just been removed.

A Rival Hits the IL

Heading into the weekend, Baldwin’s top competition - according to sportsbooks and many media outlets - was Brewers flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski.

‘The Miz’ had made just five starts before the break (4-1, 2.81 ERA, 33 K to 11 BB in 25.2 IP), but that didn’t stop MLB from adding him to the All-Star roster.

Even after two brief but solid post-break outings (3 ER in 7.2 IP), Misiorowski remained neck-and-neck with Baldwin as of Friday, per FanDuel (new presenting sponsor of the Braves Today podcast).

Then, hours before his scheduled Sunday start, Misiorowski was scratched and placed on the IL with a left tibia contusion, suffered during his last outing vs. the Cubs.

He’s expected to miss just the minimum 15 days, with no rehab stint, but the market reacted immediately:

• Baldwin: -230

• Agustín Ramírez (MIA): +600

• Isaac Collins (MIL): +600

• Misiorowski: +1500

Which brings us to the real question:

What Does Baldwin Need To Do To Hold Off Ramírez and Collins?

Two Flawed Players vs. One Well-Rounded Catcher

Short version: Keep doing what he’s doing.
Long version: Neither Ramírez nor Collins is as well-rounded as Baldwin, and so they need to excel at that one thing they do well to catch the all-around game of Baldwin.

Agustín Ramírez has the flash - his 17 HR lead all NL rookies. But despite the power, his slugging (.465) is the same as Baldwin’s, and his OPS is 60+ points lower. Why? Strikeouts. Ramírez has 72 in 86 games, vs. Baldwin’s 46 in 79. Ramírez swings and misses instead of drawing the walks required to have a better on-base percentage than his current .286.

He’s also a major liability behind the plate. Ramírez has a -7 Fielding Run Value, a 10th percentile mark, and he doesn’t catch much anyway: 40 games at C, 45 at DH.

Isaac Collins isn’t as one-dimensional as Ramírez - He’s a great leftfielder (87th percentile defender, +7 FRV) and not a bad hitter: .277/.376/.405 with six HR and 12 SB in 89 games. But he’s also not making the same all-around impact Baldwin is.

Baldwin may not bring speed, but that’s expected for a catcher. More importantly, he’s an above-average defender and a middle-of-the-order bat - rare for a rookie backstop. He doesn’t have Ramírez’s raw power or Collins’s speed, but he doesn’t need it. He contributes in every facet of the game.

If Baldwin keeps up this level of production - steady bat, solid defense, and everyday reliability - he’s not just on track to bring home the Rookie of the Year. He could bring Atlanta something they’ve never earned before: a draft pick as a reward for trusting a top prospect from day one. With his competition slipping and his game holding strong, the path is clear. Now he just has to finish the race.

1. They used the pick on prep shortstop Josh Hammond from Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC), signing him for $80K under the $3.28M slot.