The Scouting Report: Braves at Pirates, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 12:35 PM ET

• Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
C Drake Baldwin
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Baldwin’s back behind the plate for the finale, while Jim “Jimmy Baseball” Jarvis checks at shortstop, batting 9th.

Pittsburgh Pirates Lineup

CF Jake Mangum
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Bryan Reynolds
RF Esmerlyn Valdez
DH Ryan O’Hearn
3B Nick Gonzalez
1B Tyler Callihan
C Rafael Flores Jr.
SS Jared Triolo

Quick thoughts:

• No revenge game by Marcell Ozuna from the Braves today, as he’s out of the lineup so that Braves killer Ryan O’Hearn can get a ‘half-day’ at DH.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (5-6, 4.01 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.01 ERA / 3.61 xERA / 3.99 FIP

• 20.0% K / 7.2% BB / 12.8% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 31% four-seamer, 26% slider, 19% cutter, 12% sinker, 11% changeup

• vs RHH: 54% sinker, 29% slider, 9% four-seamer, 5% changeup, 3% cutter

What to watch:

• For Elder, his pitch mix and velocities are important to watch today. He cut his four-seam usage and ramped up how many sinkers he throws about four starts ago, and then fastball velocities dropped about 1 mph last time out. The Braves addressed the second one, calling this some arm fatigue, but not the first one.

  

  The change in sinker usage coincides with his rough stretch, one in which he allowed 21 runs in 20 innings and took three losses. It’s a lagging indicator, though; his first outing with the new pitch mix was six innings of two-run, two-hit ball against these very Pirates in a 3-2 Braves win.

Who to watch:

• Most of the Pirates roster has seen Elder before, owing to him facing them last month. No one’s been particularly successful, with Henry Davis being 1-4, Jared Triolo being 1-5 with a homer, and Bryan Reynolds sitting at 2-11.

Opposing Starter: RHP Mitch Keller (6-6, 5.02 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.02 ERA / 5.38 xERA / 4.40 FIP

• 17.3 K% / 7.7 BB% / 9.6% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (32%, 93.4 mph)

• Sinker (18%, 92.3 mph)

• Sweeper (17%, 82.1 mph)

• Curveball (9%, 77.9 mph)

• Slider (9%, 87.5 mph)

• Changeup (9%, 88.8 mph)

• Cutter (7%, 89.8 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A four-seam dominant kitchen mix with common tendencies - less breaking balls and more fastballs when behind in the count, reversing that trend when ahead and with two strikes.

vs RHH: A sweeper-dominant kitchen sink mix, one that ramps up sinker usage early, four-seamers when behind, and sweepers when ahead and with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• A lot of Braves hitters have an extensive history with Keller, and several of them have been rather successful: Kyle Farmer’s 8-15 with an RBI, Mauricio Dubón’s 6-13 with a homer & three RBI, Matt Olson’s 8-15 with a homer and an RBI, and Austin Riley’s 5-12 with five RBI.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Veteran lefty Danny Young is available out of the pen, as is prospect JR Ritchie and longman Victor Mederos.

Used recently:

• Dylan Dodd made an appearance last night, but with a pitch count of eight and can likely come back today if needed. Dylan Lee’s ten pitches won’t preclude him from returning today, despite getting into three of the team’s last five games.

Potential limitations:

• Didier Fuentes is almost certainly down after last night’s 19-pitch effort, based on how the Braves protect him, while Raisel Iglesias would normally be down based on a three-day pitch count of 45 but closers have different rules, so who knows?

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta’s got plenty of options for today, but many of them will likely be in unfamiliar roles if it’s a close game.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Turns out a blowout win being shut out can do a lot for resting your bullpen.

Used recently/Potential Limitations:

• A trio of medium-leverage relievers in Dennis Santana, Mason Montgomery, and Isaac Mattson couldn’t preserve the perfect game of Jared Jones or keep Atlanta off the board, but at least they did it efficiently and can come back today, if needed.

Quick takeaway:

• All hands on deck, mostly, for the Pirates as they look for a series win.

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What to Watch Today

• Keller got blasted by the Braves when he faced them last month, giving up six runs on seven hits (including a Mauricio Dubón homer) across just 4.2 innings. He struck out four and walked three, but had to battle through traffic on the basepaths in every single inning but one. Did he learn what went wrong in that outing?

• Small sample sizes this season, but Keller’s getting obliterated by lefties (.283/.340/.492 and 10 of his 12 homers allowed).

• Elder’s looking to stabilize and get back on track after a rough stretch in the month of June. Does he change his pitch mix back to what was working? Is his fastball velo back where it needs to be?

Final Thought

Braves are favored in the finale, with FanDuel projecting this to be a surprisingly high-scoring (O/U 9.5 runs) game. Which struggling starter can keep the opposing offense at bay?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.