The Scouting Report: Braves @ Giants, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 9:05 PM ET

• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 64° and mostly sunny. Wind W at 24 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
C Drake Baldwin
DH Dominic Smith
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s going with Drake Baldwin as their cleanup hitter today, dropping Dubón to sixth in the order.

San Francisco Giants Lineup

2B Luis Arraez
LF Casey Schmitt
RF Jung Hoo Lee
1B Rafael Devers
SS Willy Adames
DH Bryce Eldridge
3B Matt Chapman
CF Drew Gilbert
C Drew Cavanaugh

Quick thoughts:

• A little bit of shuffling to get a better defense behind Logan Webb, with Drew Gilbert checking in for center field and Jung Hoo Lee moving to right.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (3-1, 3.71)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.71 ERA / 3.47 xERA / 3.79 FIP

• 19.8% K / 7.3 BB / 12.6% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 32% four-seamer, 26% slider, 19% cutter, 12% changeup, 11% sinker

• vs RHH: 54% sinker, 29% slider, 9% four-seamer, 4% changeup, 3% cutter

Who to watch:

• It’s the biggest names on the Giants roster that also have the most success off of Elder:

  • Willy Adames: .313 avg/1.166 OPS w/ two homers, five RBI in 16 ABs

  • Luis Arraez: .333 avg/.866 OPS w/ one homer, one RBI in 15 ABs

  • Matt Chapman: 2-7, RBI

  • Rafael Devers: 3-4, 1.833 OPS (two walks, double)

What to watch for from Elder:

• As he’s ramped up his sinker usage and cut his four-seamer, he’s also seen his strikeout rate drop 3% and go below the important threshold of 20%. Can he find a way to miss more bats, or is this going to become a location and groundball-dependent profile? Because the margin for error is a lot slimmer, if that’s the case.

Opposing Starter: RHP Logan Webb (4-5, 3.35 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.35 ERA / 3.61 xERA / 3.07 FIP

• 20.8 K% / 5.9 BB% / 14.8% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (32%, 92.2 mph)

• Changeup (25%, 86.1 mph)

• Sweeper (20%, 84.2 mph)

• Four-seamer (12%, 92.6 mph)

• Cutter (11%, 90.0 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A three-pitch mix that ramps up changeup and four-seam usage when ahead and with two strikes (at the expense of sinkers and sweepers), while he reverses this and ramps up those two (and cutters) when behind.

vs RHH: A sinker-dominant three-pitch mix that ramps them up when early and when behind (at the expense of changeups) and cuts them when ahead and with two strikes, in favor of changeups and four-seamers.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Several Braves have had surprisingly elite success off of Webb, including Michael Harris being 7-14 with two homers and a 1.571 OPS, Ozzie Albies hitting .364 across 11 ABs, Dom Smith being 6-9 with a 1.334 OPS and three RBI, and even Ha-Seong Kim hitting .313 with two RBI across 16 ABs.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Atlanta’s middle relief group of James Karinchak and Ian Hamilton have both had two days off and will likely be called upon today if it’s not close. Of the leverage arms, Tyler Kinley’s also sitting on two days of rest.

Used recently:

• Both Dylan Dodd and the leverage trio of Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee, and Raisel Iglesias all pitched last night, but no one had the type of workload that would automatically prohibit them from coming back tonight.

Potential limitations

• That being said, the last time Didier Fuentes faced one batter, the Braves have him down the next day. Does he get into tonight’s game, or does he join Hurston Waldrep in wearing turf shoes tonight and getting the evening off?

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have the pieces they need to seal a win, if they can get a lead.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Caleb Kilian and setup men Ryan Walker and Erik Miller (lefty) both got last night off and can likely come into a close game tonight if the Giants have the lead.

Used recently

• Lefties Matt Gage and Sam Hentges both pitched last night, but neither one of them had the sort of high pitch count that would automatically preclude them from coming back tonight.

Potential limitations

• Newly demoted starter Adrian Houser threw 35 pitches last night and is likely unavailable for the rest of the series.

Quick takeaway:

• The Giants were able to reset their leverage group last night and are primed to send the backend arms out after Webb if they have a lead.

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What to Watch Today

• Logan Webb’s fared well against the Braves in Oracle Park, allowing just two total runs in his last two starts against Atlanta. In those two outings, covering 13.2 innings, he’s struck out seventeen against just one walk with ten hits (one home run).

• Also on Webb, he’s gone seven or more innings in each of his four starts in June, allowing a total of three earned runs across the 31 innings. Can Atlanta figure out the sinkerballer (and if not, can Bryce Elder pick up some important tips and tricks to continue evolving into a better version of himself?)

• On Elder, it’s one additional day of rest for the sinkerballer, which has shown in his career to result in worse outcomes over regular rest.

Final Thought

The Braves are a road dog in this one (FanDuel) in what projects to be a moderate-scoring (O/U 8.0 runs) game. This one comes down to Atlanta’s big bats matching some of their historic numbers off of Webb, while Bryce Elder works to stabilize this slump he’s been in.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.