The Scouting Report: Braves @ Padres, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 10:10 PM ET

• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA

• TV: ESPN (National Broadcast)

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 67° and mostly sunny. Wind WNW at 8 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

LF Mauricio Dubón
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jorge Mateo

Quick thoughts:

• It’s another start at leadoff for Mauricio Dubón, who is hitting .310 with a .907 OPS in his last fifteen games.

San Diego Padres Lineup

RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
CF Jackson Merrill
3B Manny Machado
DH Gavin Sheets
1B Ty France
SS Xander Bogaerts
2B Will Wagner
C Rodolfo Durán
LF Samad Taylor

Quick thoughts:

• Listen, I watch a lot of baseball. Like, a lot. I had to click on the final three lineup spots to see who those players were because I didn’t recognize any of them based on the last name alone. Injuries and poor performance (looking at you, already DFA’d Nick Castellanos) have decimated this lineup.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (4-3, 4.33)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.33 ERA / 4.73 xERA / 5.28 FIP

• 20.3% K / 10.7% BB / 9.7% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 35% four-seamer & slider, 11% curveball, 9% cutter, 8% changeup, 3% sinker

• vs RHH: 46% slider, 31% four-seamer, 17% sinker, 3% cutter, 2% changeup & curveball

Who to watch:

• No one in San Diego’s lineup has more than five ABs or two hits off of Holmes, and none of them have taken him deep.

Opposing Starter: RHP Michael King (4-6, 3.60 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.60 ERA / 4.77 xERA / 4.36 FIP

• 21.0 K% / 10.1 BB% / 10.9% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (29%, 92,7 mph)

• Changeup (26%, 86.2 mph)

• Sweeper (20%, 82.0 mph)

• Four-seamer (20%, 94.0 mph)

• Slider (5%, 84.7 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A relatively static changeup-dominant mix that cuts sweepers when behind and with two strikes, ramping up four-seamers for an even three-pitch mix to put hitters away.

vs RHH: A more-variable sinker/sweeper oriented mix, one that aggressively uses sweepers when behind and prior to two strikes, ramps up sweeper usage when ahead (at the expense of sweepers), and increases four-seam/changeup usage with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Every hitter on Atlanta’s roster but Eli White has faced Michael King, but that doesn’t mean they were all that successful in those ABs - Mauricio Dubón is 1-for-6, while Matt Olson is 0-for-2 and Drake Baldwin is 0-for-1. Ozzie Albies has the lone Braves homer off the righthander, going 1-for-2 with three RBI.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Virtually everyone - almost the entire bullpen got Sunday off, and should be fresh for tonight’s opener.

Used recently:

• Didier Fuentes threw 28 pitches on Saturday and has had only one day of rest, so they might try and stay away from him for one more game.

Potential limitations

• Reynaldo López pitched the final three innings on Sunday in relief of Bryce Elder, so he’s down for a few days.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have everything they need, including a long man in Carlos Carrasco, to get through this one.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Uh, David Morgan’s had two days off?

Used recently

• Everyone else. All-gas first-team closer Mason Miller should be able to come back after throwing 21 pitches on Saturday, as can longman Ron Marinaccio after just 15 pitches last night. Lefty Wandy Peralta’s 11-pitch usage from last night isn’t an obstacle, either.

Potential limitations

• Based solely on pitch counts and usage, quite a few Padres should be unavailable tonight. Lefty Yuki Mastui has thrown 51 pitches in the last three days, but since 345 of those was on Friday, they likely go to him tonight if needed. Kyle Hart’s coming off a back-to-back, but at only 21 combined pitches so also not a guarantee there. Jason Adam’s thrown 39 pitches in the last three days, but had a day off after a back-to-back so he likely gets called upon late, too. Even Adrian Morejon, who threw 35 on Saturday, is probably on the table if needed.

Quick takeaway:

• Length out of Michael King would be nice for the Padres, but they won’t sacrifice a win just to get four relievers some needed rest. The question will be which ones they use.

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What to Watch Today

• Michael King’s pitched to a 6.41 ERA the last five turns, allowing six of the season’s ten home runs and taking four of his five losses in that span. It coincides with a reduction in his whiffs, so look for Atlanta to be aggressive to stay out of pitcher’s counts.

• Can Holmes finally conquer his ‘2nd time through the order’ demons? This season, he’s gone from a .583 OPS the first trip through the lineup to a 1.055.

• Atlanta went 1-6 vs San Diego last season and 0-2 in 2024’s Wild Card round, so winning some games this week sure would exorcise some Petco Park demons.

Final Thought

The Braves are a slight underdog (FanDuel) in what’s essentially a low-scoring (O/U 7.5 runs) pick’em. This one is all about the offenses - can Atlanta figure out Michael King before the Padres get a second crack at Grant Holmes?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.