The Scouting Report: Braves vs. Athletics, Game 1

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 72° and partly sunny, SSE 7 mph wind

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Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)
DH Drake Baldwin (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Eli White (R)
SS Mauricio Dubón (R)
C Jonah Heim (S)
CF Michael Harris II (L)

Quick thoughts:

• Same lineup as we saw on Friday for the series opener. There’s a three-righty lane there of Riley-White-Dubón; is that where we might see Mike Yastrzemski subbed in? They didn’t make that substitution on Friday, letting Eli White play the entire contest.

Athletics

1B Nick Kurtz (L)
C Shea Langeliers (R)
LF Tyler Soderstrom (L)
DH Brent Rooker (R)
SS Jacob Wilson (R)
CF Lawrence Butler (L)
3B Max Muncy (R)
2B Jeff McNeil (L)
RF Carlos Cortes (L)

Quick thoughts:

• Manager Mark Kotsay keeps trying to make Nick Kurtz into a leadoff hitter in the Kyle Schwarber vein, but so far it doesn’t seem to be working. We’ll see how long it sticks before they move a contact bat in Wilson or McNeil up there.

• This is probably the least optimal defensive outfield that the Athletics could throw out there; Denzel Clarke is by far the best centerfielder on the roster, so he might sub in late if the A’s have a lead.

• Not that it matters, but Cortes is a switch thrower. He throws left-handed, his natural side, when in the outfield and right-handed when playing the infield, predominantly third base. He taught himself how to throw with his right hand at the age of eight, apparently, to increase his chances of winning a starting role in youth baseball.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Bryce Elder

Quick snapshot (2025):

• 5.30 ERA / 4.73 xERA / 4.55 FIP

• 19.3 K% / 7.5 BB% / 3.5% HR

• Pitch mix (avg 4S FB velo = 91.8 mph)

  • vs RHH: 53% sinker, 37% slider, 6% changeup, 3% 4S FB

  • vs LHH: 33% slider, 30% sinker, 22% 4S FB, 15% changeup

What to watch:

• It’s all about locations for Elder. He had a 47.6% whiff rate when he took his stuff out of the zone, but only a 10.6% whiff over the plate. His slider, specifically, is the most egregious example of this - 63.1% out of the zone but only 13% in it (and that’s almost entirely derived from landing it in the bottom third of the zone - it gets a whiff rate of just 7% in the middle or upper third).

• He was experimenting with the cutter in spring again - is that intended to be a permanent addition he uses every night, or is it there to help him if he can’t locate the slider and needs something with break to move off of barrels?

• Where does his four-seam velocity come in tonight? He threw four of the six hardest pitches of his career last September, touching 95.4 against Washington. If he consistently can reach back and go get 95, that gives him a bit more margin for error…unless it results in less movement on his slider, a theory we discussed back in December.

  What Does Atlanta Do with Bryce Elder?

Opposing Starter: Jacob Lopez

Quick snapshot (2025):

• 4.08 ERA / 3.64 xERA / 4.26 FIP

• 28.3 K% / 9.3 BB% / 3.8% HR

The arsenal (2025):

• Pitch 1 = four-seam fastball, 35.2% usage, 90.8 mph

• Pitch 2 = slider, 30.6% usage

• Pitch 3 = cutter, 14.6%

• Pitch 4 = changeup, 13.4%

• Pitch 5 = sinker, 6.2%

How He Attacks Hitters

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• López was one of the worst pitchers in the league last year at inducing groundballs, with a 2nd percentile mark of 28.6%. Could be an opportunity for Atlanta to get a few well-hit balls up in the air (but they’ll need to not do it against the wind, as happened on Sunday).

• Only three members of Atlanta’s roster have ever seen Lopez in a game. Mauricio Dubón is 2-5, Jonah Heim is 1-2, and Mike Yastrzemski is 0-2.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Potential limitations:

• Fuentes was optioned down to Gwinnett this morning, as he’d be unavailable for a few days. I imagine that either José Suarez or Martín Pérez, who took Fuentes’ spot on the roster, will be available for long relief tonight and the other will start tomorrow’s game two.

• You wonder how much the team wants to push Dylan Lee, who developed some homer issues last season after the largest workload of his career (74 appearances, 68.1 innings). He might not be the first lefty out of the pen tonight, with Aaron Bummer being called on instead, in hopes of letting him avoid three games in four days.

Quick takeaway:

• Raisel Iglesias hasn’t yet pitched, so look for Atlanta to try and work him in even if there’s not a save situation. Most MLB managers don’t want to let their closer go more than five days without an appearance, simply because a bullpen can’t replicate the intensity of facing live hitters.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Potential limitations:

• J.T. Ginn, the designated long man for the Athletics, pulled a Didier Fuentes and finished Sunday’s loss, saving the rest of the pen. He’ll be down today.

• Three games in four days isn’t the ideal usage of a reliever, so I imagine Mark Kotsay would like to avoid Hogan Harris and maybe even Scott Barlow tonight. With the team being 0-3, however, I don’t think he’ll jeopardize getting in the win column just to avoid using one of them.

  • If Harris is in fact down tonight, that means the A’s have no lefties available to them out of the pen, as he’s the only one currently rostered.

Quick takeaway:

• It’s a bullpen that has already seen its fair share of struggles this season, to the tune of seven runs (five earned), three losses, and two blown saves across just 12.1 innings. They’ve walked seven in that span while striking out the same figure. Sometimes, getting into the bullpen isn’t the best strategy in modern baseball, but the Braves are probably sitting pretty well if they can do that tonight.

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What to Watch This Evening

• It’s another lefty starter, the second this season. Can Ozzie Albies recreate the Friday night magic, where he took Cole Ragans deep in the first inning?

• Walt Weiss wasn’t eager to make a substitution to get Mike Yastrzemski in the game on Friday night. Does he find a way to showhorn Yaz in late, or does Eli White continue to get run even if there’s a parade of righties out of the pen?

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Final Thought

I like Atlanta’s chances tonight, provided Bryce Elder can keep the Athletics bats at bay. López’s flyball-heavy game isn’t well-suited to Truist Park, and their bullpen struggles don’t portend well for keeping the Braves bats down if they need a late rally.