The Scouting Report: Braves vs Guardians, Game 3

These are the two teams in MLB that have not yet lost a series in 2026, but that ends for one of them today

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:20 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: National broadcast on NBC/Peacock

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 83° and mostly sunny, wind SSE at 9 mph (blowing out to left field)

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
CF Mauricio Dubón
SS Jorge Mateo

Quick thoughts:

• Dubón gets a second straight start in centerfield with Michael Harris II on the paternity list.

Cleveland Guardians

LF Angel Martínez (S)
RF Chase Delauter (L)
3B José Ramírez (S)
C David Fry (R)
1B Rhys Hoskins (R)
DH Kyle Manzardo (L)
2B Juan Brito (S)
CF Daniel Schneemann (L)
SS Brayan Rocchio (S)

Quick thoughts:

• It’s a day off for Steven Kwan, with Daniel Schneemann taking over in centerfield and batting 9th.

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Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Chris Sale (2-1, 3.94)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.94 ERA / 3.87 xERA / 5.06 FIP

• 25.4 K% / 7.9 BB% / 4.8% HR rate

• Pitch mix

  • vs RHH: 44% four-seamer, 43% slider, 13% changeup, <1% sinker

  • vs LHH: 44% slider, 31% four-seamer, 25% sinker

What to watch:

• How does Sale rebound from his last outing, where he allowed six runs on five hits and two walks to the Angels in just four innings?

• The only two Guardians bats with more than six ABs against Chris Sale are José Ramírez (.267, RBI in 30 ABs) and Rhys Hoskins (3-9). Steven Kwan has only six at-bats versus Sale and two hits, but one of those was a homer.

Opposing Starter: RHP Tanner Bibee (0-1, 3.29)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.29 ERA / 4.69 xERA / 5.02 FIP

• 24.1 K% / 8.6 BB% / 5.2% HR rate

The arsenal:

• Pitch 1 = cutter (86.3 mph, 30% usage)

• Pitch 2 = four-seamer (94.2 mph, 29% usage)

• Pitch 3 = changeup (81.5 mph, 17% usage)

• Pitch 4 = sinker (94.3 mph, 12% usage)

• Pitch 5 = curveball (78.0 mph, 10% usage)

• Pitch 6 = sweeper (81.3 mph, 3% usage)

How He Attacks Hitters

vs RHH: Here’s a fastball, try and hit it

44% cutter, 26% sinker, 15% four-seamer, 10% curveball, 4% sweeper, 1% changeup

vs LHH: Unpredictable velocity changes

38% four-seamer, 27% changeup, 21% cutter, 10% curveball, 3% sinker, 2% sweeper

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Bibee’s fastballs haven’t actually graded out well this season (-5 Run Value, 2nd percentile) despite above-average FanGraphs Stuff+ grades on both the cutter (107) and sinker (104), so there’s an opportunity here for Atlanta’s right-handed hitters to get hittable pitches in the zone.

• Lefties have a tougher task - not only can they not eliminate offspeeds like righties mostly can, but they also have to deal with three different velocity bands from pitch to pitch with no discernible pattern.

  • Anecdotally, it feels like the large arsenal arms are the ones that have given Atlanta the most fits so far this season.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The best two leverage arms haven’t pitched since Tuesday and are not only going to be available tonight, but likely get used regardless of the score.

Used recently:

• All of the non-high-leverage arms but José Suarez pitched last night.

Potential limitations:

• Not only have Aaron Bummer, Tyler Kinley, and Joel Payamps all pitched on back-to-back days, but Osvaldo Bido is likely down based on his 50 pitches last night and 64 in the last two days. José Suarez is going to need to be up and available today.

Quick takeaway:

• I’m sure Atlanta manager Walt Weiss would love to get seven strong innings out of Chris Sale, as there are only leverage arms and a recently used José Suarez available out of the pen today. Still surprised that there was no roster move made this morning.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Cade Smith hasn’t pitched since Tuesday. It’s a shame that the Braves couldn’t keep the score close last night, as it likely would have forced him into the game for the 9th inning.

Used recently:

• Even with lefty setup man Eric Sabrowski pitching last night, both he and Tim Herrin are available for late-game matchups.

Potential limitations:

• Shawn Armstrong is the right-handed setup man and should be down based on pitch count. Last time he threw 20+ pitches, on Tuesday, he got three games off before being used again.

Quick takeaway:

• Like Atlanta, Cleveland doesn’t really have a long man available today unless they bring back Peyton Pallette on one day rest like Atlanta could do with José Suarez.

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What to Watch Today

• How do Atlanta’s hitters rebound from getting shut out last night?

• On that note, can Tanner Bibee get enough fastballs past the Braves bats to keep Cleveland in this one?

• Which offense can put up enough runs off of an Opening Day starter to leave their worn bullpens a long-enough runway to land the plane?

Final Thought

The winner tonight becomes the only team in MLB to not yet have dropped a series on the season. Give me Atlanta, behind six strong innings from Chris Sale and the backend trio of Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, and Raisel Iglesias.