The Scouting Report: Braves vs Mariners, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 9:40 PM ET

• Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 75° and mostly sunny, wind WSW at 7 mph

Atlanta Braves Lineup

DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Sean Murphy
RF Eli White
SS Jorge Mateo

Quick thoughts:

• Murphy returns to both the roster and the lineup, taking Jonah Heim’s spot, while Drake Baldwin is the new leadoff hitter against righties

Seattle Mariners Lineup

SS JP Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
1B Josh Naylor
LF Randy Arozarena
DH Dominic Canzone
RF Luke Raley
2B Cole Young
C Mitch Garver
3B Leo Rivas

Quick thoughts:

• Seattle is still without slugger Cal Raleigh, who is dealing with soreness in his side that is causing him to miss his third straight game.

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Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP JR Ritchie (1-0, 2.92 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.92 ERA / 4.77 xERA / 5.99 FIP

• 21.6% K / 11.8% BB / 9.8% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 35% four-seamer, 26% curveball, 22% changeup, 9% slider, 8% cutter

• vs RHH: 43% sinker, 26% curveball,, 15% four-seamer, 13% slider, 2% changeup

What to watch:

• JR Ritchie is from the Pacific Northwest and this is his “home” ballpark. For that reason, watch for him to potentially be overthrowing and/or ‘amped up’ in the first inning. A lot of guys talk about a spike of adrenaline in this exact situation.

• Obviously, this is the first time the Mariners have faced Ritchie.

Opposing Starter: RHP Logan Gilbert (1-3, 4.03 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.03 ERA / 3.76 xERA / 3.33 FIP

• 24.4 K% / 5.0 BB% / 19.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (30%, 95.4 mph)

• Slider (20%, 86.3 mph)

• Splitter (14%, 80.5 mph)

• Cutter (14%, 91.3 mph)

• Curveball (13%, 80.6 mph)

• Changeup (9%, 85.2 mph)

How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: FB & breaking early, power when behind, offspeed with two strikes

vs RHH: 4S/break early and when behind, adds splitter when ahead/two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• No Braves hitter has been very good against Gilbert in extended looks, but both Jonah Heim (.231 avg in 26 ABs) and Matt Olson (.214 avg in 14 ABs) have taken him deep and have multiple RBI off the righty.

• Gilbert’s that rare “two offspeed” pitcher, so be prepared for that.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Carlos Carrasco hasn’t pitched in the last six days (although he did start to warm up on Sunday) and can take extended work tonight if it’s not close.

Used recently

• Virtually the entire bullpen pitched on Sunday in Colorado, but all shorter outings.

Potential limitations:

• It’s possible the team tries to stay away from Didier Fuentes, as he’s not accustomed to pitching on two straight days, but that’s likely it. Maybe Dylan Lee?

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves had a bullpen fire drill yesterday due to Spencer Strider’s short start, but no one’s pitch count would preclude them from coming back tonight if needed. Atlanta will need to start buying rest days tonight, though.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Yes, that is former Braves lefty José Suarez, who was claimed off waivers by Seattle and should be active for tonight’s game.

Used recently:

• A trio of relievers all pitched on Sunday, but none are currently leverage arms.

Potential limitations:

• Cole Wilcox is the long man and is likely down for today after two 20-pitch outings in the last three days.

Quick takeaway:

• Seattle has their leverage arms, as well as two lefties in Gabe Speier and Jose Ferrer, available tonight if needed.

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What to Watch Today

• Any JR Ritchie jitters in front of his home crowd with (speculating) 50 friends and family present? He’s walked a fine line in recent starts and it’s bound to catch up to him eventually.

• Gilbert’s another ‘strong propensity for a first pitch strike’ ace. How quickly can the Braves settle into the at-bat? Can they avoid getting behind and letting Gilbert unleash that splitter?

Final Thought

Seattle’s a favorite on the money line (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a very low-scoring game. I trust Atlanta’s pen more, but can they do enough against Gilbert to get it to their leverage arms with a lead?