The Scouting Report: Braves vs Marlins, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET

• Location: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV (OTA)

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Roof: loanDepot Park’s roof will be CLOSED today

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
SS Ha-Seong Kim
RF Mike Yastrzemski

Quick thoughts:

• The Braves are back at it with their standard RHP-optimized lineup.

Miami Marlins Lineup

2B Xavier Edwards
DH Liam Hicks
SS Otto Lopez
LF Kyle Stowers
RF Owen Caissie
CF Jakob Marsee
1B Connor Norby
C Joe Mack
3B Javier Sanoja

Quick thoughts:

• Hicks has become an everyday player for Miami, rotating between DH, catcher, and first base. Quite the accomplishment for a former Rule 5 pick.

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Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP JR Ritchie (1-0, 3.32 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.32 ERA / 4.54 xERA / 6.14 FIP

• 18.3% K / 16.1% BB / 2.2% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 30% four-seamer, 26% curveball, 22% changeup, 13% cutter, 7% slider, 2% sinker

• vs RHH: 33% sinker, 24% curveball, 16% slider, 14% four-seamer, 9% changeup, 4% cutter

Who to watch:

• No Marlins players have faced Ritchie in the youngster’s MLB career, but Gwinnett and Jacksonville are frequent Triple-A opponents so I’m sure there’s someone who has seen him on the Miami roster at the moment - maybe Mack?

Opposing Starter: RHP Max Meyer (3-0, 3.21 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.21 ERA / 4.27 xERA / 3.18 FIP

• 26.6 K% / 8.4 BB% / 18.2% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Slider (29%, 90.4 mph)

• Sweeper (25%, 88.4 mph)

• Four-seamer (22%, 95.1 mph)

• Changeup (13%, 87.6 mph)

• Sinker (11%, 93.6 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Four-seamer uses ramps up early, focus on sliders when behind and sweepers when ahead/two strikes (even though this is opposite handedness).

vs RHH: Sweepers when ahead, four-seamers when behind, sinkers prior to two strikes and heavy focus on sweepers when ahead/two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• There’s not a ton of experience against Mayer on Atlanta’s roster, but what there is is pretty underwhelming - Matt Olson’s just 2-12, albeit with a home run and three RBI, while Drake Baldwin’s 1-5 and Mike Yastrzemski is 0-2.

  • The flip side of this is that Austin Riley’s 3-9 with a homer and two RBI, while Michael Harris is 3-9 but with no home runs or RBI.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The Braves were able to give the trio of leverage arms two days off, so they’re all fresh and available this week.

Used recently:

• Tyler Kinley threw just 15 pitches last night, so if they want to give him another “get right” inning if it’s a blowout, that shouldn’t be a problem.

Potential limitations:

• Reynaldo López threw 26 pitches across two innings last night, so he likely doesn’t become available until Wednesday or so.

Quick takeaway:

• Recent rest has Atlanta’s pen in mostly a good place. Is Dider Fuentes the long man behind Ritchie tonight, or are the Braves prepared to piece it together out of the leverage arms if it’s close?

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Miami had quite a few guys down on Sunday, giving them a rested closer in Pete Fairbanks and at least one setup man in Calvin Faucher available tonight.

Used recently

• Breakout lefty John King threw 12 pitches yesterday, but that was after two days of rest so he can likely come back tonight if Miami needs him to.

Potential limitations

• Setup man Tyler Phillips threw 43 pitches yesterday, for some reason, and likely won’t be available until at least Tuesday, if not Wednesday.

Quick takeaway:

• Miami has their closer, a setup man, and a top lefty available for the Braves tonight.

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What to Watch Today

• Atlanta’s defense on the turf. The best version of JR Ritchie is a groundball machine, but this is inherently a faster (and less forgiving) playing surface than grass. Do some of the groundballs get through the infield, or can Atlanta’s defense adjust?

  • A Major League Baseball game should never be played on turf. Find a way to grow grass indoors or don’t have a roof - if Houston and Milwaukee can figure it out, you can too.

• Meyer’s giving up a 86.1% contact rate in the strike zone, meaning he’s dropped his in-zone rate to sub-50% this year. Can the Braves get back to drawing walks against a pitcher who has become increasingly reluctant to throw strikes?

Final Thought

Atlanta’s a slight underdog on the money line (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be an average scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). Can Atlanta’s offense punish Max Meyer’s breaking balls in the zone, or will they get behind early and be chasing all game?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.