The Scouting Report: Braves vs Marlins, Game Three

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter/X

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Mauricio Dubón
LF Mike Yastrzemski
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Ozzie Albies gets his first off day of the season, with Dubón at second base. Also, Sean Murphy behind the plate and Drake Baldwin at designated hitter is a much better configuration than Drake calling pitches and Dominic Smith at DH.

Miami Marlins Lineup

SS Otto Lopez
LF Heriberto Hernández
DH Agustin Ramirez
2B Xavier Edwards
3B Leo Jiménez
1B Kyle Stowers
RF Javier Sanoja
CF Esteury Ruiz
C Brian Navarreto

Quick thoughts:

• I’m going to be honest - I consider myself to be a knower of ball that knows a lot about Major League Baseball, but I had no idea who “Navarreto” was on the lineup card. 6th-round pick by the Twins out of high school and in his age-31 season with 18 career games. Okay then.

  • Fun fact here - he debuted in 2020 and didn’t make it to the majors for five years, finally being called back up for eight games and 14 ABs last season.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (7-6, 3.24 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.24 ERA / 4.42 xERA / 4.29 FIP

• 18.8% K / 9.8% BB / 9.0% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 54% sinker, 25% changeup, 13% cutter, 6% curveball, 2% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 33% changeup, 27% cutter, 25% sinker, 9% curveball, 6% four-seamer

What to watch:

• Pérez’s defining pitch is still the changeup. He throws it 30.3% of the time, and it has produced a 32.1% whiff rate, .291 xwOBA and only a 25.3% hard-hit rate. His sinker generates almost no swing-and-miss—8.4%—and its .371 xwOBA is considerably worse. If the changeup is getting chases beneath the zone, he can control this game; if he’s forced to live on 89-mph sinkers, Miami should create traffic.

• Watch his walks to Miami’s right-handed hitters. Pérez has walked 30 righties against only 42 strikeouts this season. The changeup has kept their batting average down, but his command against opposite-handed hitters leaves very little margin for error. An early walk or two would concern me more than a couple of well-struck outs.

• Don’t assume seven innings just because he delivered seven scoreless last time. Pérez owns a strong 3.49 ERA, but his low strikeout total—69 in 90⅓ innings—and the expected damage against his sinker suggest he remains more of a five-to-six-inning contact manager. There isn’t an obvious third-time-through collapse in his results, so I’d base the decision on changeup quality and traffic rather than an automatic 18-batter hook.

Who to watch:

• Breakout shortstop Otto Lopez is 2-5 off of Pérez, while the only two homers currently on the roster belong to, of all people, Esteury Ruiz (!) and Xavier Edwards.

Opposing Starter: RHP Jansen Junk (5-6, 4.58 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.58 ERA / 4.07 xERA / 4.24 FIP

• 18.1 K% / 6.5 BB% / 11.6% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (36%, 94.2 mph)

• Slider (21%, 86.5 mph)

• Changeup (19%, 87.3 mph)

• Sweeper (14%, 80.2 mph)

• Curveball (7%, 80.8 mph)

• Sinker (15%, 97.2 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A fastball-based mix with little variation - More four-seamers when behind than early, but other than that it’s a pretty static mix

vs RHH: A breaking-ball-heavy mix, one that throws more sliders early in the count and exchanges them for four-seam fastballs with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Stack the lefties. Through his first 13 starts, left-handed hitters batted .321 against Junk with a 1.74 WHIP and 6.21 ERA; righties hit only .184. Some of the right-handed dominance is probably BABIP-assisted, but this is not merely a tiny platoon blip - lefties hit .294 against him last season. Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II and Mike Yastrzemski should represent Atlanta’s best path to damage.

• Attack strikes instead of waiting for walks. Junk throws 53.4% of his pitches in the zone, but generates only a 17.2% whiff rate with 88% contact inside the zone. That’s the profile of a pitcher who wants quick contact, not someone Atlanta needs to grind into submission. The Braves should be selective about which strikes they attack, but excessive passivity could leave them behind immediately.

• Six pitches, no real knockout pitch. Junk uses a four-seamer, slider, changeup, sweeper, curveball and sinker, but the four-seamer is the only one with a positive run value. His slider, sweeper and curve have all been slugged at least .471, while his entire arsenal outside the changeup has generated a whiff rate below 17%. The variety can disrupt timing, but none of the breaking balls has performed like a dependable two-strike finisher.

• The second inning has been his early trouble spot. Junk has a 4.20 first-inning ERA but a 6.60 ERA and .811 opponent OPS in the second. He has actually been much better in innings three through five. If Atlanta doesn’t get him immediately, the first turn through the bottom half of the order may offer its next (and possibly best) opening.

• Atlanta lit Junk up for eight runs on eight hits in just five innings back in May. He gave up a pair of three-run homers in that game, one each to Austin Riley and Dominic Smith (Dom also had a triple in that game, thanks to some bad defense, and scored an unearned run due to a throwing error.)

  • In the ‘hitters that need to get going’ file, Ronald Acuña Jr. is 3-6 and Sean Murphy is 2-4 off of Junk.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• The Braves went with the alternate leverage group of Dylan Dodd and Didier Fuentes last night, so Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias have both had a night off.

Potential limitations:

• Dylan Dodd (back-to-back) and Didier Fuentes (19 pitches, normal usage pattern) are likely both down today.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta’s got enough for their second consecutive series sweep if they have a close lead late.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Pete Fairbanks hasn’t thrown in four days, so they may try and get him into tonight’s game even if it’s not a save situation.

Potential Limitations

• It’s possible that Victor Vodnik gets a second day here, but this should be mostly full availability for the Marlins.

Quick takeaway:

• Miami’s well-suited to prevent a sweep, if they get to the late stages of the game with a lead.

Final Thought

Braves are a favorite on the moneyline (-146 to Miami’s +136), and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Can Atlanta’s lefties punish Junk before his contact management settles in? Junk has been much more vulnerable to left-handed bats, while Pérez’s biggest danger is creating unnecessary traffic against Miami’s righties. Atlanta has the more favorable platoon matchup, but the game could turn on which starter avoids the multi-run homer after allowing a walk or soft single.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.