The Scouting Report: Braves vs Mets, Game Three
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 12:30 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: National Broadcast on NBC/Peacock
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jim Jarvis
Quick thoughts:
Jarvis checks into the lineup in the #9 spot at shortstop, while Dom Smith has opportunity #37 to get going after a slow month plus.
New York Mets Lineup
SS Francisco Lindor
DH Juan Soto
3B Bo Bichette
1B Mark Vientos
RF Carson Benge
LF Tyrone Taylor
CF AJ Ewing
C Luis Torrens
2B Brett Baty
Quick thoughts:
New York’s giving Juan Soto a “half-day” at designated hitter, so that forces AJ Ewing into the lineup against a lefty on the mound for Atlanta.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (6-5, 3.27 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.27 ERA / 4.37 xERA / 4.29 FIP
19.5% K / 9.6% BB / 9.9% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 53% sinker, 26% changeup, 13% cutter, 7% curveball, 1% four-seamer
vs RHH: 33% changeup, 28% cutter, 22% sinker, 9% curveball, 7% four-seamer
What to watch:
There are two competing trends here. The long-term trend is that Pérez has never lost to the Mets in his career, being 5-0 with a 2.94 ERA in eleven appearances (seven starts). That’s not just early-season excellence from the 35-year-old, either; he’s 3-0 with a 3.33 ERA in his last five starts against them. He faced them two weeks ago, allowing one run on four hits in 5.1 innings in a 3-1 Atlanta win.
The other trend is that ever since taking that comebacker off the leg by the Padres, he’s not been as effective: seven earned runs in nine innings, walking seven and allowing three home runs. Is this just a momentary blip due to either coincidence or the heat or workload or something, or is Pérez finally regressing towards what his ERA estimators say he should be producing?
Who to watch:
Some of New York’s stars have played like stars against Pérez:
Francisco Lindor is 8-19 with five walks, a .421/.542/.474 line
Juan Soto is 4-10 with a homer and three RBI.
Bo Bichette is 5-10 with two doubles
Opposing Starter: RHP Nolan McLean (5-5, 3.78 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.78 ERA / 3.44 xERA / 3.58 FIP
28.5 K% / 9.1 BB% / 19.4% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Sinker (35%, 95.0 mph)
Four-seamer (19%, 96.1 mph)
Sweeper (17%, 84.8 mph)
Curveball (12%, 81.6 mph)
Cutter (10%, 91.8 mph)
Changeup (7%, 88.1 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A multi-fastball six-pitch mix, with increased four-seam and sweeper usage early, more curveballs and changeups when ahead and with no strikes (and virtually no curveballs at any other time), and cutting back on four-seamers with two strikes.
vs RHH: A four-seamer/sweeper based six-pitch mix, one that is mostly standard: more curveballs when ahead and with two strikes (at the expense of sinkers), while dropping sweeper usage when behind in favor of sinkers.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Still not a ton of exposure to McLean on Atlanta’s roster, and it’s a mixed bag - Dominic Smith and Mike Yastrzemski are both 1-2 with a RBI, while Ozzie Albies is 1-4 and Drake Baldwin is 1-3. On the flip side, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II are both 0-5 and Austin Riley walked twice in their only game action against one another.
McLean faced Atlanta two weeks ago and picked up a no-decision, going just four innings with two runs allowed on three hits and four walks while striking out six. Three of those walks and two of those hits came in a two-run second inning, but the Braves struck out twice and flew out to strand three on base in an eventual 7-5 loss.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
The non-Dylan Lee leverage arms all got the night off, while a fresh Carlos Carrasco was called up to replace JR Ritchie, who pitched the final three innings to become Atlanta’s fourth different pitcher this season to record a three-inning save.
Used recently:
Didier Fuentes and Raisel Iglesias both had extended outings on Frisay night and while I’m confident they’ll use Iglesias today if needed, I wonder if Fuentes is available after working two of the previous four days.
Potential limitations
Dylan Lee only threw 11 pitches last night in a clean sixth inning, but based on the fact he’s thrown 46 pitches and worked three of the last four days, I imagine they’d like to give him today off if at all possible.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves have everyone they need to lock down a win today if the game’s close, although with Dylan Lee potentially unavailable, it’s an open question as to who would be the leverage lefty out of the pen if one is needed.
Danny Young got this opportunity on Friday night, walking Juan Soto after two consecutive groundouts and giving way to Didier Fuentes to finish the 7th inning.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Mets closer Devin Williams and setup men Luke Weaver and Brooks Raley (lefty) STILL have not pitched since Tuesday and might get into today’s game, no matter the score.
Used recently
Lefty A.J. Minter threw 18 pitches on Friday night but with one day of rest under his belt, is likely available for this afternoon’s game three.
Potential limitations
Middle relievers Austin Warren (44 pitches last night) and Joey Gerber (back-to-back outings) are likely down for the Mets today.
Quick takeaway:
New York’s bullpen, while much maligned this season, has both the fresh leverage arms and the fresh lefties required to secure a win.
What to Watch Today
Weird stat that might not matter: The Braves are just 13-12 in day games this season.
Weird stat that might not matter, part 2: Nolan McLean has been much better this season on the road (2.49 ERA in eight starts) than at home (5.03 ERA in nine starts). This does not bear out in his career numbers (3.47 ERA at home, 2.93 on the road) so it’s likely just random variance, but if he rebounds from a rough outing against Atlanta last month, that’ll be a reason we can point to.
Being serious, McLean’s struggled both the third time through the order (like most pitchers do) and with walks in leverage situations (1.88 SO/W ratio, with 8 BB and 15 Ks in 74 PAs). For a Braves team that’s been pretty decent at cashing in RISP moments and late in ball games, it feels like they won’t truly be out of this one even if they’re down two runs in the fifth or sixth.
Final Thought
The Braves are favored on the moneyline (-118 on FanDuel) in what projects to be a high-scoring (O/U 9.0 runs) game. McLean’s going to get his strikeouts, but Atlanta’s newfound power surge means they’re likely to get theirs, as well.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.