The Scouting Report: Braves vs Nationals, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: ESPN (National broadcast)

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: Hot, with a very low chance of rain

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
LF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Austin Riley is out of the lineup after going 0-7 with six strikeouts across both games of Wednesday’s doubleheader.

  • Is this just a temporary breather, or is it a “production over paycheck” decision by Walt Weiss that will persist over the next few weeks/months?

Washington Nationals Lineup

RF James Wood
1B Luis García Jr.
CF Dylan Crews
SS CJ Abrams
LF Daylen Lile
C Keibert Ruiz
DH Jose Tena
3B Jorbit Vivas
2B Nasim Nuñez

Quick thoughts:

• This is a lot of lefties in the lineup for Washington, with only the righty Crews and two switch hitters (Ruiz and Nuñez) on the card. Expect a lot of pinch hitters late.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (6-4, 3.79 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.79 ERA / 4.70 xERA / 4.83 FIP

• 19.7% K / 10.2% BB / 9.5% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 33% slider, 32% four-seamer, 13% cutter, 11% curveball, 7% changeup, 4% sinker

• vs RHH: 41% slider, 29% four-seamer, 21% sinker, 4% cutter, 3% curveball, 2% changeup

What to watch:

• As always, the second time through the order. First time through, he has a 2.61 ERA, .265 wOBA and 25.7% strikeout rate. Second time through: 5.97 ERA, .410 wOBA and 14.6% strikeout rate. He has allowed two homers the first time through and 12 the second time.

  • The key here is going to be the fastball. It’s been rocked this season (.522 xSLG), so he needs the breaking balls to miss bats to survive. You’ll take hits off of the slider and curveball, because that means they’re swinging at his best pitches. We don’t want hits off of the fastball.

Who to watch:

• Not a ton of experience as far as total at-bats for anyone on Washington’s roster, but the trio of Luis García (2-7), Jorbit Vivas (2-4), and James Wood (1-4) have all homered off of Holmes.

Opposing Starter: RHP Jake Irvin (2-4, 5.23 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.23 ERA / 5.24 xERA / 4.25 FIP

• 25.4 K% / 9.6 BB% / 15.8% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (28%, 92.9 mph)

• Curveball (26%, 77.5 mph)

• Sinker (24%, 91.9 mph)

• Cutter (11%, 88.4 mph)

• Sweeper (8%, 81.2 mph)

• Changeup (4%, 84.3 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A kitchen-sink mix, with all three fastballs early and a focus on four-seam/curveball with two strikes. He throws more sinkers when behind, a common adjustment, but does it at the expense of his four-seamer, not his breaking balls.

vs RHH: A sinker-based mix, one that ramps up four-seamers when ahead and with two strikes (at the expense of that sinker) but otherwise mostly maintains the same pitch distribution through the at-bat.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Most Braves hitters have faced Irvin, but none of them have a lot of success off of him. The best line is Ronald’s 3-8, while Matt Olson (2 HR in 19 ABs) and Mike Yastrzemski (1-12) have Atlanta’s only homers off the righty.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available/used recently:

• Most everyone is likely available today, despite all pitching in one (or both) games of the doubleheader on Wednesday. Elieser Hernandez is the only completely fresh arm, being a call-up to replace Connor Thomas but not getting into either game.

Potential limitations:

• Dylan Dodd (35 pitches) and Didier Fuentes (27 across the two games he pitched in on Wednesday) are likely both down today.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta has the pieces for any scenario that happens today, but it’s going to impact tomorrow and the rest of the series.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Riley Cornelio hasn’t thrown since Sunday and is likely good to go after his 42 pitches.

Used recently:

• Lefties Tom Cosgrove and Carson Palmquist have one and two days of rest, respectively.

Potential Limitations

• Closer Clayton Beeter has gotten a day off since throwing three of the last four games (and recording saves in all three), but do they give him one more day or is he up and available?

• Setup man Orlando Ribalta is coming off a back-to-back and normally wouldn’t be available tonight, although I’m guessing they won’t have both him and Beeter down at the same time.

Quick takeaway:

• Washington has the leverage arms, bit the overall depth’s going to be tested behind what is likely a short start for Washington.

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What to Watch Today

• Atlanta’s path against Irvin: Ignore the curveball and hunt the sinker/cutter. His curve has been legitimately excellent: a 43.9% whiff rate and .229 xwOBA. The sinker has been demolished for a .659 SLG and .473 xwOBA, while the cutter has allowed a .704 SLG and .449 xwOBA. Atlanta should be selectively aggressive against hard stuff in the zone without expanding for the curve below it.

  • Opponents have put up a .292 average and 2.00 WHIP against him in the opening inning. That is only 11 innings, but combined with this being his first major-league start in more than two months, the Braves should treat the first inning as a genuine scoring opportunity

• Make Irvin work even if the command looks good. He allowed only two hits over 11⅓ scoreless rehab innings, striking out 12 with one walk, but his final rehab start was only 63 pitches—and just 38 strikes. Even if Washington lets him go beyond that tonight, something around 70–80 pitches appears more realistic than a conventional starter’s workload.

  • Washington’s bullpen enters with a 5.03 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Atlanta doesn’t have to beat Irvin immediately if it can make him throw 20 pitches an inning and expose the ‘armbarn’ to covering more than half the game.

Final Thought

Braves are a big favorite on the moneyline (-154 to Washington’s +130) and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Atlanta’s path is to avoid Irvin’s curve, attack his sinker and cutter, and make a pitcher returning from a two-month shoulder absence expose Washington’s bullpen. For Holmes, the game begins when the Nationals see him a second time.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.