The Scouting Report: Braves vs Rangers, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
SS Jim Jarvis
RF Brewer Hicklen

Quick thoughts:

• Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris swap spots, with Baldwin back at leadoff and Harris the cleanup hitter, while Jarvis and Hicklen reunite as the ‘Striper Bros’ at the bottom of the order.

Texas Rangers Lineup

DH Justin Foscue
LF Wyatt Langford
RF Brandon Nimmo
3B Josh Jung
1B Jake Burger
SS Ezequiel Duran
CF Cam Cauley
C Elias Díaz
2B Nicky Lopez

Quick thoughts:

• Braves legend Nicky Lopez gets the start at second base, batting 9th.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (9-6, 2.20 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.20 ERA / 3.45 xERA / 2.81 FIP

• 29.0% K / 6.2% BB / 22.4% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 39% slider, 33% sinker, 27% four-seamer, 2% changeup

• vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 39% slider, 15% changeup, 1% sinker

What to watch:

• We didn’t get any resolution to the ‘Chris Sale quality start watch’ last time out, on Friday night versus the Cardinals, due to rain forcing him from the game after just three scoreless innings. But the fact remains that Sale’s had just one quality start in his last seven outings, partly due to the occasional bout of inefficiency with his pitch count.

Who to watch:

• Only seven Rangers have ever seen Sale in a game, and only four have hits: catcher Elias Díaz is 1-4, fellow catcher Kyle Higashioka is 1-6, outfielder Wyatt Langford is 1-3, and outfielder Brandon Nimmo is 2-7.

Opposing Starter: RHP Cal Quantrill (3-1, 3.11 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.11 ERA / 4.59 xERA / 4.74 FIP

• 14.5 K% / 6.7 BB% / 7.8% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Cutter (30%, 88.3 mph)

• Sinker (29%, 94.1 mph)

• Four-seamer (19%, 94.0 mph)

• Splitter (18%, 85.7 mph)

• Curveball (5%, 78.9 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A fastball-dominant mix with common tendencies - more splitters when ahead in the count, as well as exchanging splitters for four-seamers when behind. Dropping cutter usage for sinkers with two strikes is an interesting wrinkle, though.

vs RHH: A heavy fastball mix, with more cutters early (at the expense of four-seamers and splitters), a ton of sinkers when behind in the count, and four-seam/splitter with two strikes instead of sinkers and cutters.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Virtually everyone but the Striper Bros has faced Quantrill in their careers, but somehow only Matt Olson (4-10, 2 RBI) has taken him deep. Let’s see if anyone else can join him tonight.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Everyone.

Used recently:

• Raisel Iglesias threw 14 pitches in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game, but after two days of rest, he’s good to go for tonight.

Potential limitations:

• None.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta has all hands on deck for the start of the ‘second half’.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Also everyone.

Used recently:

• Closer Jacob Latz needed only six pitches for his All-Star Game outing on Tuesday, but he’s reportedly good to go as well.

Potential Limitations

• None.

Quick takeaway:

• This is likely the last time that either bullpen will be this rested from now until October.

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What to Watch Today

• What does Atlanta’s offense look like with a few days off? Thinking mostly about the guys that were struggling here (like Austin Riley), but will any of the hotter hitters from early July be a bit rusty after four days off?

Final Thought

Braves are favored in the opener, as they are in virtually every Chris Sale start, with FanDuel projecting this with an over/under of eight runs. Can the Braves give Sale some run support, or will this be a repeat of June where he’ll be on the wrong side of a 2-1 decision?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.