It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision, Gray TV (OTA)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X/Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
The Braves are going to see if Ha-Seong Kim and Austin Riley can get going before the postseason, as at least one of those guys will need to be in the lineup on a somewhat regular basis.
Cincinnati Reds Lineup
RF Carlos Jorge
SS Elly De La Cruz
1B Sal Stewart
C Tyler Stephenson
LF JJ Bleday
3B Eugenio Suárez
CF Dane Myers
DH Héctor Rodríguez
2B Matt McLain
Quick thoughts:
A fairly underwhelming lineup for the Reds, which helps explain their 72-84 record.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP JR Ritchie (1-3, 5.03)
Quick snapshot:
5.03 ERA / 5.30 xERA / 5.63 FIP
20.9% K / 13.7% BB / 7.2% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 27% curveball, 24% four-seamer, 23% changeup, 12% cutter, 11% sinker, 4% slider
vs RHH: 36% sinker, 27% curveball, 12% four-seamer, 11% slider, 10% changeup, 5% cutter
What to watch from JR Ritchie
The Triple-A velocity gain survived the trip to Chicago. Ritchie’s four-seamer averaged 95.4 mph and reached 97, while his sinker averaged 94.7. Those readings were essentially identical to the 95–97 mph version that struck out 24 hitters over his final 12⅔ innings for Gwinnett. The Cubs did not beat diminished stuff; they beat poorly located stuff.
The problem was the quality of contact. Ritchie allowed six earned runs and seven hits in 4⅔ innings against Chicago—and six of the seven hits went for extra bases. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman homered, while Crow-Armstrong and Bregman later added run-scoring triples.
His curveball remains the pitch Cincinnati should have to beat. It owns a 33.1% whiff rate and has held hitters to a .200 average and .357 slugging percentage. Conversely, opponents have slugged .628 against the four-seamer and .600 against the cutter. Ritchie’s task isn’t merely throwing harder; it’s using that velocity to establish the curveball without leaving firm pitches in the heart of the zone.
Left-handed hitters remain the more difficult assignment. They have a .379 OBP and .832 OPS against Ritchie, compared with .312 and .701 for righties. He has walked 27 of the 169 lefties he has faced, and they receive substantially more four-seamers and changeups—the two parts of his arsenal that have generated the most damage.
First-pitch strikes remain the development marker. Ritchie reached 68% during his 15-strikeout Gwinnett outing, but his MLB rate is still only 54.5%, compared with the 61.2% league average. He walked the first and third hitters he faced against Chicago, although he issued only those two walks all night. The improved command appeared intermittently, not consistently.
Watch the second inning. Ritchie has a 2.89 first-inning ERA, but that rises to 8.10 in the second, when opponents have produced a 1.064 OPS. Chicago also began its extra-base barrage with a leadoff double in the second. Getting through the opening inning has not meant he has settled in.
The Reds against Ritchie: There is no useful batter-versus-pitcher history. Ritchie has never faced anyone on Cincinnati’s current roster.
Opposing Starter: LHP Brandon Williamson (4-4, 5.56 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
5.56 ERA / 6.36 xERA / 6.19 FIP
15.8 K% / 13.8 BB% / 2.0% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs. LHH: 35% cutter, 32% sweeper, 16% four-seamer, 9% sinker, 5% curveball, 4% changeup
vs. RHH: 31% cutter, 28% changeup, 20% four-seamer, 10% curveball, 8% sinker, 4% sweeper
Atlanta’s path against Williamson
Treat this as a four- or five-inning assignment, not necessarily a conventional start. Williamson returned from shoulder fatigue and UCL reconstruction on September 2. Only one of his four appearances since returning has been a start, and he threw two innings against Los Angeles five days ago. Tonight will be his first start since September 2.
Atlanta should lean right-handed—but Matt Olson belongs in the lineup. Righties have a .390 OBP and .837 OPS against Williamson, with 22 walks against only 19 strikeouts. Lefties have a lower .291 OBP, although their .458 slugging percentage shows that they haven’t been powerless.
The handedness changes Williamson’s identity. His sweeper is an enormous part of the plan against lefties, accounting for nearly one-third of his pitches. Against righties, it practically disappears and is replaced by the changeup. That gives Atlanta’s right-handed hitters a much more attackable cutter-changeup-fastball combination.
The sweeper is the one pitch Atlanta should avoid helping. Hitters are batting .036 against it with a 42.6% whiff rate. The rest of the arsenal is considerably less intimidating: opponents have slugged .514 against the changeup, .792 against the four-seamer and 1.214 against the sinker. The sinker sample is small, but the broader message is clear—wait for something firm.
Selectivity should create those opportunities. Williamson has started only 53.1% of hitters with a strike, walked 13.8% of those he has faced and generated a below-average 24.5% chase rate. Atlanta shouldn’t confuse patience with passivity, though: the four-seamer has produced only a 10.2% whiff rate, making it the pitch to attack when it enters the zone.
This is a favorable pulled-power matchup. Williamson allows 61.2% of his contact in the air, and 23.9% of all batted balls against him have been pulled in the air—well above the 16.9% MLB rate. He has surrendered four homers in 15⅔ September innings. Acuña, Riley, Albies and Atlanta’s other righties should look to lift mistakes toward left field.
The Braves against Williamson: The history is only nine total plate appearances, so there isn’t an honest “bad” list. The good is memorable: Michael Harris II and Matt Olson each homered against him in the first inning on September 17, 2024. Williamson left that game in the second inning with the torn UCL that eventually required reconstruction.
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: The cutter is the primary fastball here, but used like a sinker - more usage early and when behind, with the four-seamer seeing a slight uptick when ahead/two strikes. His sweeper is the primary out pitch here, with the changeup working as a backup option. The curveball is used more as an early-count strike-stealer.
vs RHH: The cutter continues as the primary fastball here, but the four-seamer is used more after the at-bat matures than early in the count. The changeup is the primary out pitch, with the curveball working as a secondary option. The off-handed sweeper does get usage here as a putaway pitch as well, so it's very location-dependent.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
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Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available/potential limitations:
Is it possible that AJ Smith-Shawver gets one more day off after throwing 34 pitches on Sunday? That’s likely, but I’d love to see if he can go after just one day off, for science.
Quick takeaway:
Yesterday’s day off was useful, as it’s essentially a full bullpen reset for Atlanta.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available:
Strong revenge game potential here with former Atlanta reliever Pierce Johnson, who should be fully available today for the opener and has not yet faced Atlanta since departing after last season.
Potential Limitations:
Longman Carson Spiers will be out after throwing 62 pitches on Sunday.
Quick takeaway:
The off day to reset the bullpen was just as helpful for Cincinnati as it was for Atlanta. There’s no distinct advantage for the Braves on availability here, just ability.
Final Thought
The Braves are -205 on the moneyline to Cincy’s +172 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 9.5 runs. The hinge point is: Which young starter earns access to his best secondary pitch?
Williamson and Ritchie have first-pitch-strike rates of only 53.1% and 54.5%, respectively. When Williamson falls behind Atlanta’s righties, he must enter the zone with a vulnerable fastball, cutter or changeup instead of using his sweeper as a chase pitch. When Ritchie falls behind, his excellent curveball becomes harder to deploy and hitters can sit on firm contact.
Atlanta’s formula is selectivity followed by pulled air contact. Ritchie’s is strike one, then curveballs below the zone.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
If we don't let Elly or Sal Stewart beat us, we should be OK...
Yes, it would be noice to get Riley and Kim going before the off-season, but isn't there a 3rd guy at the bottom of tonight's order hitting .179 with an OPS of .566?