There Are Not a Lot of Starting Pitchers Left Out There for Atlanta
The Braves have been very specific about the criteria any rotation addition needs to meet, and at this point, it's unlikely any of the remaining free agent starters meet all of them.
Alex Anthopoulos has made it clear that the Atlanta Braves aren’t adding just any starting pitcher this winter.
In discussing the status of some of the out-of-options starting options like Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz, etc prior to the Winter Meetings, Anthopoulos insisted that their mere existence on the roster wouldn’t preclude the Braves from making a move, as long as it was the right move. “ That doesn’t mean if we can add what we would feel like is an impact starter, that we wouldn’t do that.”
(While we’ve never officially asked Anthopoulos his definition of an impact starter, my interpretation is that it’s someone who can start one of the first three games of a playoff series for you. Per reports, Anthopoulos said the same thing on Tuesday afternoon on 680 The Fan.)
And from a free agent perspective, there’s just not a lot of remaining options that meet all of the team’s criteria for this rotation spot. Let’s talk about it.
What the Braves are looking for
Let’s detail the criteria that the Braves are likely looking for in any rotation addition this winter:
Frontline/impact starter
As we explained above, this guy is starting one of the first three games of a postseason series for you. He’d slot somewhere in with the Chris Sale/Spencer Strider/Spencer Schwellenbach group, likely starting for whichever of those three wasn’t able to go in game three.
Highly rated Stuff
While the Braves have employed groundball types, like Bryce Elder, they’ve been reluctant to go to those guys in the postseason, instead preferring pitchers with swing and miss stuff. When the Braves had the ability to set their rotation in 2023, they went with Spencer Strider and Max Fried in games one and two of the NLDS over Bryce Elder for game three.
At or under $22M/year
We’ve talked about this, folks - Atlanta doesn’t want to exceed this figure and with their current payroll situation after bringing back Ha-Seong Kim, probably don’t have the funds to both do this and maintain their preferred $10M contingency for in-season additions.
Clubhouse fit
The Braves, perhaps more than any other organization, have a ‘character filter’ that they apply to all potential additions to the roster.
The Qualifying Offer guys don’t fit
While Anthopoulos has admitted that he is not afraid to sign a qualifying offer player, which would result in Atlanta sacrificing their 2nd-highest draft pick (#26) next summer and the accompanying ~$3.5M bonus pool, most of the options remaining on the market after Dylan Cease signed with Toronto just don’t make a lot of sense.
Framber Valdez, Astros: Doesn’t pass either the character filter or the money filter (median projection, per Tim Britton, of 5/$150, a $30M AAV). Barely passes the swing-and-miss filter (141st in whiff last year, a 26.6% mark that is 59th percentile in the league.)
Michael King, Padres: Doesn’t pass the money filter (3/$75M, so $25M AAV), although it’s more palatable given the relative short-term on the deal. Also doesn’t pass the Stuff filter (99 Stuff+), although it’s close enough and there’s enough development left with his pedestrian changeup (79 Stuff+) to get him over 100. If I’m doing any of these1, King is likely the one I’m going for.
Ranger Suárez, Phillies: Doesn’t pass the money filter (5/$125M, so $25M AAV) or the stuff filter (96 Stuff+ with a 90.5 mph fastball).
Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks: Doesn’t pass the money filter (2/$52M, so $26M AAV), although like King, it’s defensible on a short-term deal. Also doesn’t pass the stuff filter (93 Stuff+) and as there’s no obvious explanation for last year’s poor performance, his ability to pass the frontline starter filter is an open question. Just too costly to pop a QO on that profile.
After that, it’s slim pickings
Most of the remaining free agents are either not passing the stuff filter or the frontline starter filter, with the class’s average fastball velocity being one of the lowest in recent history and not a lot of whiff to be found. Of the 40 free agents on the whiff leaderboard, the #1 (Cease) and #3 (Brandon Woodruff, who accepted his Qualifying Offer) are already signed.
Everyone else who finished last season inside the top 60 in whiffs is flawed in some way - Justin Verlander is both 42 and has seen his walk rate creep up to nearly 8%, while Griffin Canning is coming off of an Achilles tear and may not be available until after the All-Star Break.2
Beyond the top 60, the overall ceiling is suspect and likely too low for inclusion in Atlanta’s rotation. Chris Bassitt doesn’t pass the “frontline starter” test, with a Blue Jays team in need of starting pitching deciding to use him in relief all postseason. Germán Márquez can fling it (average FB velo of 95 mph) but opposing hitters can still hit it (ERA of 6.70 last year).
You get the picture.
So, what do the Braves do?
Anthopoulos has spoken a lot this winter about the high threshold any rotation addition needs to meet. I’m convinced at this point that he’s not going to sign anyone, but will continue to work on some sort of trade acquisition. Who fits there?
Freddy Peralta, Brewers: Frontline filter, passed - he started game one of the NLDS and game two of the NLCS. Stuff filter, passed - He had an 83rd percentile whiff rate and not only a Stuff+ of 102, but three pitches all at 106 or better (and one 79 changeup that dragged down the average). Money filter, passed - the final year of his contract has him making only $8M, although if the Braves traded the prospects required to land him from Milwaukee (likely JR Ritchie plus at least one other notable piece), I’d want an extension to be part of the deal.
Joe Ryan, Twins: The whiff rate’s barely above average, sitting in the 59th percentile, but his fastball’s an outlier pitch on movement that graded out as one of MLB’s best heaters last year (+15 Run Value). He’s projected to make roughly $6M in his final year of arbitration and would have likely been one of Minnesota’s first two postseason starters had they, y’know, made the postseason.
Everyone else with the requisite ceiling will either require a larger financial commitment (Pablo Lopez, $22M salary), potentially be just a rental (Nick Pivetta, who has two opt-outs in his remaining three years), or be unlikely to move inside the division (Sandy Alcantara & Edward Cabrera, Marlins, MacKenzie Gore, Nationals). Not saying any of them are completely out, but there’s one more obstacle in front of any of them that neither Peralta nor Ryan needs to overcome.
At this point, honestly, stay the course. Depending on how you feel about Reynaldo López and Hurston Waldrep (I’m high on both), the Braves could be entering 2026 with five postseason starters already under control. Maybe add another reliever instead, just to avoid needing to count on either Joe Jiménez being healthy or someone like Joel Payamps to step up as the fourth leverage arm behind Dylan Lee.
I don’t want to
Actually, I don’t hate this one. Put him on the 60-day IL when spring training starts and plan on seeing him in July/August. Jeremy Hefner already knows him after Hefner’s pitching lab convinced the free agent to sign with the Mets last winter.