This could be a pivotal draft for the Atlanta Braves

The Braves are beginning to reach the point of needing to replace hitters from within the farm system

The Atlanta Braves’ farm system, for its lack of acclaim among The Prospect Apparatus™, has been able to consistently produce MLB talent for the Braves in the last few seasons.

Every single year, it feels like the farm system is good for at least one player who emerges as an everyday contributor:

2022: Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider, Michael Harris II, Dylan Lee
2023: Bryce Elder
2024: Spencer Schwellenbach
2025: Drake Baldwin, AJ Smith-Shawver, Daysbel Hernández

But after replacing several arms in recent years, the position player group is about to start seeing some players reaching free agency, necessitating the farm system to do even more to replace them.

And it starts this summer at the MLB Draft.

Let’s talk about it.

Pending free agents in the next few offseasons

There are several everyday contributors potentially walking out the door this offseason, but the rate at which position players are beginning to come free could be concerning to some. The team’s starting designated hitter could be gone after this year, as well as their starting second baseman and left fielder the next offseason and then their superstar right fielder the year after that.

Here’s a list of the notable players who are hitting free agency in each of the next few seasons, excluding those who have additional control through club options.

2025: DH Marcell Ozuna, CL Raisel Iglesias
2026: SP Chris Sale, RP Pierce Johnson, backup SS Orlando Arcia, RP Enyel De Los Santos
2027: 2B Ozzie Albies, RP Aaron Bummer, RP Joe Jiménez, LF Jurickson Profar
2028: RF Ronald Acuña Jr., OF Eli White, RP Dylan Lee (and Jarred Kelenic, for what it’s worth)

Clearly, the Braves will need to be able to replace some of these players internally. But in addition to internal promotions and free agent signings, this summer is a chance for the Braves to add a player or two that can be ready towards the back half of the above window.

Atlanta’s usual draft strategy doesn’t really mesh well with this year’s strengths as a class, though, so it might be time to make a one-year change.

What are the strengths of this class?

This draft class is an unusual one in that it’s deep but not as strong as the top as past seasons. There’s four groupings in the class, hitters or position players of either college or out of the prep ranks.

The college hitting class is roughly average - there are plenty of options throughout, but not as many pure hitters at the very top as last year’s class (which featured JJ Wetherholt, Travis Bazzana, and Nick Kurtz, among others.) The college pitching IS strong at the top end, with Florida State’s Jamie Arnold, Tennessee’s Liam Doyle, Alabama’s Riley Quick, and LSU’s Kade Anderson, among others. The Braves are aggressive at targeting quality college arms that drop early, usually getting them at or below slot and freeing up money to take some bats early in day two.

SIDEBAR: There’s a change to the usual three-day draft starting this year. Rather than making it through supplemental round two on day one, rounds three through ten on day two, and rounds eleven through twenty on day three, the entire thing is being compressed into two days. Rounds one through three are on day one, while the rest will be made on day two. As someone who ends up getting on conference calls with Atlanta’s scouting director at the end of every draft day, I think I’m for this but that’s also a lot of guys to try and ask about after day two.

The prep talent is inverted from most recent seasons - I’d call prep pitching the weakness of the class, which is fine as the Braves don’t usually invest that heavily in prep arms. But prep hitters, a group that Atlanta almost never touches early, is the real strength this year. There’s both quantity and quality to be had here, especially at the shortstop position.

And it should probably change how the Braves plan on attacking this year’s draft.

Do they go hitters early?

While the saying ‘there is no such thing as a pitching prospect’ exists for a reason, the Braves arguably have more starting options than ever in their farm system at the moment. In the Braves Prospect Composite (which needs to be updated for the graduations of AJ Smith-Shawver and Drake Baldwin), eleven of the top fifteen prospects are all rotation candidates.

It’s important to remember that it’s not necessary to grab an arm in the first round if you want a future MLB starter. While Atlanta’s done that - Jared Shuster was a 1st-rounder in 2020 - Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder were in that year’s 4th and 5th rounds, respectively, while both Spencer Schwellenbach and AJ Smith-Shawver were after the first round, just to grab from this year’s rotation.

I’d argue that the Braves should go with a bat early, looking at that three year-window to get them to the majors.

College options:

SS Wehiwa Aloy, Arkansas: On the heels of being named SEC Player of the Year, he’s likely going to go before Atlanta’s pick at #22 comes up. He hit .358/.440/.677 with 18 homers and 7 stolen bases for the Razorbacks, although I wasn’t as impressed with his work in conference play (His .326 average in SEC games was just 5th on his own team). He’s seen as a fundamentally sound shortstop with plus raw power that could translate to pull-side thump. He has good enough hands to move to second, if needed, while the arm could handle third, as well. The speed’s the only real weakness here, coming in at fringe to average, but he mitigates it well through good positioning.

SS Marek Houston, Wake Forest: Serving as the leadoff hitter for the Demon Deacons, Houston hit .326/.434/.516 with more walks than strikeouts this year. He traded a bit of average for power this season, but still profiles to have the best contact in the class and an all-fields approach. While I’ve got a bit of concern about Aloy’s ability to stick at short with his fringy speed, I’m a bit wary of Houston’s power ceiling - he added about 10-15 pounds of muscle over the offseason but it still only gets his power to a fringy ceiling. He’s an exceptional defender, though, probably the best in the entire draft. Is that good enough to make up for maybe being a 10-12 homer bat?

OF/C Ike Irish, Auburn: One of the best pure hitters in the entire draft, Irish destroyed SEC pitching to the tune of a .398/.480/.852 in conference play, hitting 13 of his 16 homers against the league and mostly on the road. Irish’s two-strike approach, where he widens his base and shortens his swing, made him one of the most lethal hitters in the entire SEC and, combined with his strike zone awareness, draws comparisons to Juan Soto. Capable of playing both a good corner outfield (thanks to his athleticism) and a strong catcher (owing to his exceptional blocking and strong throwing arm), he’s an all-around player.

Prep options:

SS Daniel Pierce, Mill Creek GA: A smooth defender who is starting to come into his power, Pierce’s risen into the first round after a strong senior season featuring very little swing and miss. A commit to UGA, he’ll have opportunities to sign and start a pro career on the projectability of his power and his defensive chops, which should allow him to stay at shortstop as an above-average defender or kick either direction to a base as a plus glove.

SS Steele Hall, Hewett-Trussville, AL: A Tennessee commit who reclassified to 2025, he’s gong to be graded highly on team models due to his youth. The defense is fantastic, with exceptional range and arm strength backed by strong instincts. The offense is steadily improving - he’s added good weight throughout his senior season and already does a great job of incorporating his lower half into his swing.

What would I do?

A lot of the publicly available mock drafts (and several of the private and/or paywalled ones) have the Braves going back to the large college pitching well - I’ve seen Kyson Witherspoon of Oklahoma mocked to Atlanta a lot, as well as Alabama’s Riley Quick and even a small school selection in Southern Mississippi’s J.B. Middleton.

But if it’s me, I’m looking at bats. Assuming a top pitcher doesn’t fall on draft day, I’d probably put those five guys in the following order:

Irish
Pierce
Hall
Houston
Aloy

To me, grabbing a bat with a three year trajectory is the right move, allowing the team to have options to replace departed veterans and continue to build from within. While a shortstop isn’t required, they’re typically versatile enough where they can play almost anywhere on the diamond if they don’t work at short.

Using the Prospects Live Mock Draft Simulator¹, I ran a few drafts through the third round with moderate aggressiveness - not chalk, but no complete chaos.

My most common first round pick was Pierce at 22 (Irish typically went in the late teens), followed by either a buy low on Florida State righty Cam Leiter (who missed this season with shoulder surgery) or Houston-area prep shortstop Ryan Mitchell.

(The most fun one, though, was when expected top ten pick Jace LaViolette of Texas A&M fell to 22. I quickly jumped on the outfielder and then got Riley Quick, somehow, in the 2nd round followed by prep shortstop Nicky Becker in the third. That’s a whole toolbox full of flashy tools on day one!)

1. Behind a paywall, unfortunately