Today’s Three Things: Braves Can’t Cash in Run Scoring Chances in Loss

The Braves had chances to score and just couldn’t find the crooked number

The Atlanta Braves were unable to sweep the Philadelphia Phillies, losing 9-4 in Truist Park on Sunday afternoon.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

The win probability chart was all over the place in this one, but I want to talk about the first inning. I flagged in The Scouting Report that Phillies starter Andrew Painter, even with his recent arsenal change during the demotion, was vulnerable in the first innings of his starts - an ERA of 9.00 since returning to the majors and an opponent OPS of .934.

And true to form, Atlanta jumped on Painter right away, with leadoff hitter Michael Harris II singling his way on and #3 hitter Matt Olson moving him to third with a single. But Atlanta came away with only one run, on a Drake Baldwin sacrifice fly, with Mauricio Dubón singling to get another runner into scoring position but Ozzie Albies grounding out to end the inning.

This pattern repeated later, with Albies stranding two with an inning-ending pop-up in the 3rd, Atlanta loading the bases with one out in the 4th before a Ronald Acuña Jr. flyout and a Matt Olson groundout ended the threat, and Atlanta coming away with only one run in the 7th despite three singles, a wild pitch, and a stolen base in the frame. (And once again, Ozzie Albies ended the rally, flying out to right.)

They even tried some different things in an attempt to generate some action, including a hit-and-run in the first inning and letting Mauricio Dubón steal second in the 7th while trying to manufacture a 1st-and-3rd play. But ultimately, the missed opportunities were too much to overcome: Atlanta stranded eleven on base and went just 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position.

Today’s Player of the Game

Let’s give it to leadoff man Michael Harris II.

Money Mike’s not the most prototypical leadoff hitter, sporting a walk rate of just 3.7% this season (2nd percentile), but his contact ability means that he’s putting a lot of balls in play and still has a chance to get on base. And that’s what he did today, getting three singles, two off of Andrew Painter.

The speed helped him cash those in, as well, scoring twice.

It’s the culmination of a big series for the centerfielder, who rebounded from a hitless game one to pick up seven hits, including a homer, three RBI, and four runs scored across the final two games vs Philly.

While he won’t hit the 30 stolen base prediction, owing to his battles with a quad injury in the first half, he’s already set a career-high in homers with 25 while continuing to play Gold Glove-caliber defense.

What You’ll Be Talking About

Atlanta’s pitching today.

Holmes stumbled today, giving up a two-run homer to J.T. Realmuto in the 2nd and then failing to record an out in the 5th before being pulled. The process stats weren’t great, either; only five whiffs (three of which came in the first inning) and no strikeouts while walking two and allowing five hits (two for extra bases). In a welcome change, though, he did limit Philly’s hitters to an average exit velocity of only 87.9 mph.

Honorable mention for Player of the Game goes to Ray Kerr. Called on to replace Grant Holmes with runners on the corners and no outs in the fifth, Kerr not only got out of the jam without allowing a run but pitched two more scoreless innings. He finished with one hit allowed over three frames, striking out four with no walks. And that left-on-left leverage test I was asking for finally came, with Kerr mowing down Kyle Schwarber (groundball double play) in that 5th inning. The one hit was a double to Bryce Harper to open the 6th, though, on a 0-1 hanging curveball.

Dylan Lee got the call after Kerr made it all the way through the order and did nothing to inspire confidence that his post-ASB shakiness was behind him. He picked up two outs, but also allowed four runs on four hits, including doubles to Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm. The issue there was more poor locations, with several of the hits coming on center-cut sliders or fastballs. Victor Mederos was called on to staunch the bleeding and couldn’t, being charged with three runs on four hits and a walk of his own. Bailey Falter was finally able to get out of the inning and pitched a scoreless ninth, albeit working around two hits.

Lee’s struggles are more than a momentary aberration at this point - the lowest ERA he’s put up in the last three months is his August 4.91, sandwiched by a 5.54 July and a 12.00 so far in September. The Braves need to be having serious discussions about who else they trust to get lefties out in a setup role, as Robert Suarez went through live BP today prior to the game but is still likely a week or two from returning.

Is that person Dylan Dodd? What about Ray Kerr, who handled Schwarber with runners on in the 5th? Or maybe it’s AJ Smith-Shawver, who had spikes on and was in the bullpen today.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s today’s Postcast, where I went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

Atlanta’s leaving after this game for the airport, flying to Chicago for a three-game set against the Cubs in historic Wrigley Field that starts tomorrow. Both team have announced their rotation for the series:

Mon: Reynaldo López vs LHP David Peterson
Tue: Martín Pérez vs Kevin Gausman
Wed: TBD vs LHP Shota Imanaga