Today’s Three Things: Oddly Conservative Bullpen Usage Dooms Braves in Opener

The Atlanta Braves stuck with a young flamethrower despite the warning signs and paid for it

The Atlanta Braves dropped game one against the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-3 in Dodger Stadium on Saturday afternoon

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Today’s sixth inning.

Atlanta entered the frame down 2-0, after a two-run Teoscar Hernández homer in the bottom of the 4th inning. And with Tarik Skubal cruising, having retired 15 hitters in a row after a leadoff single, things weren’t looking good for Atlanta.

Nobody told Sean Murphy.

The veteran backstop continued his domination of Skubal, quickly getting down 0-2 but battling back. On the fifth pitch of the at-bat, Skubal left a sinker at the top of the zone and Murphy didn’t miss, popping the ball 421 feet out to center field at 104.8 mph off the bat.

That was his third career homer off of Skubal and sixth hit in just 17 at-bats off of the lefty. Ha-Seong Kim followed Murphy by drawing a six-pitch walk, with Ozzie Albies working his own two-out walk a few batters later, but the Braves couldn’t finish the rally. Matt Olson flew out to left to end the inning, but Atlanta was finally on the board.

But as close as this game was, it wasn’t close for long.

With AJ Smith-Shawver coming back out for a third inning of work, he gave up a single to Teoscar and a two-run shot to Kyle Tucker. The Braves left him in the game, however, and after a strikeout of Andy Pages, he gave up yet another homer, this one a solo shot to Max Muncy. After a mound visit, he walked Tommy Edman but rebounded with a lineout of Mookie Betts to end the threat and the inning.

More on them sticking with Smith-Shawver in a minute.

Today’s Player of the Game

The combo of Dylan Dodd and Sean Murphy.

Dodd, making his first start since 2023, was masterful. He navigated his way through three scoreless innings with just two hits allowed, one being a flared single to right that everyone lost in the sun. He struck out four, including the side in the 2nd inning.

Dodd got it done today with some extra velocity, averaging 95.2 on his ‘sinker’ and touching 96.2 mph, as well as some fantastic locations of his cutter on the corners of the zone. While he had only three whiffs, he picked up ten additional called strikes and allowed just one hard-hit ball in the seven batted balls off of him.

Murphy gets credit for both navigating the bullpen game as well as the homer. Braves pitching did not get beat by LA’s stars today, with the trio of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman combining for just three singles and a strikeout.

What You’ll Be Talking About

The bullpen decisions for Atlanta, because several of them didn’t make much sense from the normally aggressive Walt Weiss.

Dodd did everything you could ask for and more, getting through three scoreless innings. But the first man out of the pen behind him was Victor Mederos, not a more traditional leverage reliever, and he wasn’t up to the task. Mederos faced four batters but recorded just one out, being charged with both runs on Teoscar’s home run and then leaving AJ Smith-Shawver with a runner on first.

For Atlanta having ridden their top leverage arms so hard in the best-of-three Wild Card series, it’s odd to see them be conservative here when they know there’s an off day coming on Monday.

And then the conservative approach continued.

After Murphy’s home run narrowed the LA lead to just one, Smith-Shawver was sent back out for another inning, the one where he coughed up the two homers that took the game out of reach. The first two batted balls should have been red flags for Atlanta’s coaching staff, too, with both being hard-hit balls off of poorly located fastballs.

But despite the warning signs, Weiss stuck with AJSS even though Dylan Lee was hot and ready to go. I know Lee’s had his own struggles recently, but he also has very good performance against both Muncy and Tucker and if you’re going to trust him against Schwarber and Harper, why not here?

Very conservative approach with the pitching today, and unless he knew that some of those leverage relievers were explicitly down for today’s opener, it’s odd.

UPDATE: Weiss did. He said after the game that Robert Suarez wasn’t an option for today no matter what, owing to how recently he returned from his elbow injury, while Fuentes was only going to be used today if they were leading.

From the transcript, here is Weiss responding to a question about navigating a series of bullpen games:

“WALT WEISS: It’s a challenge. Even today was going to be tough for us to chase from behind because of how we emptied the tank on Thursday night.

We weren’t going to pitch Fuentes from behind. It would have been 4 out of 5. Then he’s at risk tomorrow in a game that we’re up. Suarez was down because of the elbow, missing three months. We weren’t going to use him at all.

So it was going to be really tough to chase from behind today. But you know what? I’d sign up for that every time to win the previous series.”

What You’ll Be Talking About, Part 2: Electric Boogaloo

The offense didn’t exactly help by refusing to capitalize on their run-scoring chance against Skubal there in the 6th, although it’s hard to fault them for not hanging a crooked number on checks notes Tarik Skubal.

But I think the overall story of the way the runs were scored today is worth discussing.

Every run in this game came courtesy of the home run, and the difference for both teams felt like it was taking advantage of mistakes.

Teoscar’s homer was a middle-middle cutter from Mederos.

Tucker’s homer off of AJSS was a fastball he left middle-middle, and he knew it, but Muncy’s was more a good piece of hitting. Said AJ after the game:

"Thought for sure the fastball (to Tucker was bad). Trying to get a little more up and in, left it a little low. Then Muncy with the splitter, I don't hate the pitch that much. Just in a zone where he handles stuff well."

Muncy’s splitter was on a 2-1 pitch and was thigh-high, on the inner third. Not a great pitch, but not a terrible one, either.

But in Atlanta’s sixth-inning rally that wasn’t, for instance, Drake Baldwin somehow got on top of a sinker in the upper third of the zone, while Ronald took a slider on the upper rail before grounding out on a slider below the zone. Olson’s inning-ending flyout saw him miss both the same elevated sinker that Murphy launched and a hanging changeup before chasing a fastball off the plate away.

(Ozzie’s 9th inning home run was off a first-pitch fastball, middle away, so not a mistake per se but definitely too casual to throw in the 9th inning with a runner on base.)

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are back in action on Sunday night for game two, and have not yet officially announced their starter. They’re expected to go with Chris Sale, but Weiss said after the game that they haven’t officially decided and will likely wait to see how he feels in the morning before deciding. Blake Snell will get the ball for LA and first pitch is scheduled for 8PM ET.