The Atlanta Braves dropped the series finale to the Chicago Cubs 8-4 in Truist Park on Wednesday night, officially losing the series.
Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.
The Turning Point
The fifth inning.
Atlanta was down 3-0 entering the frame, but all of that damage was single runs - a RBI double by Alex Bregman in the first, solo shot by Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 3rd, and a solo shot by Bregman in the fourth. Ritchie was getting in trouble, but finding ways to minimize the damage.
This inning was multiple runs, because Ritchie had run out of answers.
Carson Kelly got the action started with a single to right on an in-zone fastball - good velo and location, at 95.9 mph and down, but Kelly shot it the other way. PCA immediately drove him in, getting an elevated 0-2 sinker and ripping it down the right field line, ending up on third base with a triple. Ritchie then compounded the traffic by hitting Seiya Suzuki with the first pitch of his AB, an inside sinker that just kept running.
After a strikeout looking of Michael Busch gave some hope that Ritchie would get out of it with just the one run against him, Alex Bregman won a battle. Getting up 2-1, Bregman pounced on a cutter that drifted too far over the plate and pulled it down the left field line. It caromed off the side wall and towards Mauricio Dubón…who overran it and let it roll all the way to the wall for a two-run triple.
Don’t look now, but since the All-Star Break, Dubón’s been the worst defender by Fielding Run Value on the team at -3, and that’s before this play is accounted for. Not sure if it’s fatigue causing this, but that could be an explanation - he’s already almost 100 PAs over his previous career high of 492 in 2023, sitting at 585 after tonight, and he’s nearly 250 innings over his previous defensive high of 989 from that same season.
(He’s also been a negative defender on the season in left field at -2 FRV, although his +5 at shortstop and +1 in center field indicates that it might be the angles or some other issue other than a deterioration of skills.)
Today’s Player of the Game
Honestly, I don’t have anyone here. Mauricio Dubón had both a double and a triple today, both scoring a run and driving one in, which would automatically make him a shoo-in for this award. But with the defensive misplay, it’s hard to give him the honor.
Ronald Acuña Jr. had a single and a double, scoring a run, but with all of his production coming after the Braves were down six runs, that feels like a bit of a cop out.
Honestly, this is one of those games where the player of the game is probably the friends we made along the way.
What You’ll Be Talking About
Other than the Braves being unable to figure out another starter and having to do their damage mostly against a bullpen (which isn’t as reliable of a strategy in October), the young pitchers are dominating the conversation tonight.
Ritchie’s return to the majors was rough on the results front - six runs on seven hits, two walks, and a HBP in 4.2 innings. He did strike out five, which is an improvement on his previous starts, but the improved stuff didn’t translate into results.
Ritchie averaged 95.4 mph on his four-seamer, up nearly a full mph over his MLB average this season, and he maxed out at 97. Despite that additional velo, though, he got just one whiff on the heater in 14 swings and finished with just 9 whiffs overall. Additionally, his average exit velocity allowed was 93.0 mph, with eight of the 14 batted balls off of him being hard-hit.
Owen Murphy was inserted for the sixth and seventh, getting just one out in the eighth before the Braves went to veteran Brent Suter to get out of a bases-loaded jam (he struck out PCA to do it. Murphy was ultimately charged with two runs on five hits, with one run coming on PCA’s second homer of the game.
And like Ritchie, Murphy showed some improvement from the last time he was up, mostly in his locations. His main issue will continue to be the lack of velocity - he has great fastball shape, sitting at 19 inches of induced vertical break (+2 inches over MLB average), but was sitting just 92.4 today and maxed out just under 95. The likely determinant of where his spot in the team’s rotation ends up is where that velocity ends up when it’s all said and done - throwing low-90s has him bounded for a #4 or #5 spot, but if he can increase the heater to around 95 or better, a top-half outcome is possible.
(This isn’t a hard and fast rule - Joe Ryan has a very similar fastball, averaging 93.5 this season, and is a top-two starter for the Twins - but it’s a strongly correlated outcome. Besides, Ryan also has a sweeper and splitter to fuel his strikeouts, as well as one of the game’s lowest walk rates at just 5.1%.)
The book is not closed on either player, no matter what the naysayers will try and say at this point in time. But it’s hard to see Atlanta carrying either guy on the postseason roster this year, instead giving them assignment for the offseason and looking for them to meaningfully contribute as rotation depth in 2027.
Looking for more discussion about this game?
Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.
What’s Next for the Braves?
The Braves are off tomorrow before starting a three-game set with the Houston Astros, who are now fallen into a tie with the Texas Rangers for first place in the AL West. Atlanta’s annouced a rotation of Tyler Mahle, Grant Holmes, and Martín Pérez for the weekend, while Houston as yet to declare who will get the ball over the weekend in Daikon Park.
A while back, Lindsay wrote an article about how AA had a regret from his time as Toronto GM where he didn't trade for Ian Happ (I believe) at the trade dead line and instead was HOPING an injured player would return. The injured player did not return. AA did not trade for Happ and it came back to bite the Blue Jays in the butt. AA said he learned his lesson, HOPE is not a strategy.
But that's EXACTLY what he did at this trade dead line! Yes, he got Tyler Mahle who has, arguably, been the best pitcher acquisition (with the possible exception of Skubal) at the trade dead line. But we needed TWO starting pitchers and more offensive help than a platoon bat in LF (who is now injured and likely lost for the season).
We had the Profar money to spend. But AA decided it was Skubal/deGrom or bust. AA was HOPING that Strider, Schwelly, Waldrep or ReLo would return or that Ritchie/Murphy would be ready to help the big league club and NONE OF THAT HAS COME TO FRUITION!! This week we have seen ReLo is done for the year and maybe his career and neither Ritchie (for all his improvement in AAA in missing bats) nor Murphy is ready for the bright lights of October baseball. HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY!
Now, we are reduced to "rehabbing" Robert Suarez in the major leagues in the last week of the season, HOPING he can come back and be a force in the back-end of the bullpen in the playoffs. We have Sale in game 1. We have Mahle in game 2. We do not have a #3 starter you feel good about. Anyone who says they are confident in either Perez or Holmes in a win or go home game 3 in the playoffs is deluding themselves. And our offense seemingly only does damage against middle relievers.
Could this team catch lightning in bottle and win the WS like 2021? Yes. Is this is what is most likely to happen? Not in my opinion. AA said he learned his lesson, but it sure doesn't look like it do me. Hope is not a strategy. But that's what the Braves are left with.
Is that moves have as much, if not more, risk than counting on guys in the organization to get healthy or develop. The pitcher I thought AA should get at the deadline was Mize.