Manager of the Year cases are usually built from the standings. Walt Weiss’s might be best represented by a $20 million shortstop sitting on the bench.
When Ha-Seong Kim struggled after returning from offseason surgery for a torn tendon in his finger, Weiss did not keep playing him because of his salary, resumé, or initial place in Atlanta’s preseason plan. He gave those plate appearances to Mauricio Dubón, Jorge Mateo, and Jim Jarvis - players who gave the Braves a better opportunity to win on any given night.
It was one decision in a season filled with them. The roster Atlanta constructed during the offseason rarely remained intact long enough for Weiss to manage it as designed. As Mike Tyson famously said, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
Weiss, a taekwondo black belt, rolled with the punches and changed his plan. He stopped waiting for the intended version of the Braves and kept finding ways to win with the one available that day.
Pat Murphy managed the National League’s best team. Don Mattingly rescued one of its greatest disappointments. But no candidate has offered more visible evidence of managing than Weiss.
He should be the National League Manager of the Year.
Let’s talk about it.
What are we measuring, exactly?
A persistent idea in baseball is that Manager of the Year should go almost automatically to the manager whose team wins the most games.
I’m here to tell you that’s dumb and wrong.
First, it’s not actually how it’s worked in the past - the 2023 NL Manager of the Year wasn’t Brian Snitker, despite the Braves having baseball’s best record at 104-58 and a generationally great offense. Instead, it went to Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, who took a 69-93 team and guided them to a Wild Card berth at 84-78. It was a similar story in 2024, with Pat Murphy of the Brewers winning despite Milwaukee holding the third-best record in the NL.
But the other reason is that it’s too simplistic; managing involves much more than a team’s record. On the Monday episode of the Braves Today podcast, I named four criteria that made sense to me for Manager of the Year:
Results relative to expectations
Adversity and roster instability
Evidence of useful managerial decisions
Improvement from the previous baseline
When Weiss is evaluated against those four criteria, he makes the most sense as Manager of the Year.
Pat Murphy deserves some credit, sure
The two-time reigning Manager of the Year has guided the Brewers to a franchise-record 98-58 mark with six games remaining and is poised to lead the majors in wins for a second consecutive season.
And in my (admittedly subjective) criteria from above, he has several factors that work in his favor.
FanGraphs projected the Brewers to win only 81 games and gave them a 38 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Most of MLB.com’s voters also picked Chicago to win the NL Central, relegating Milwaukee to the Wild Card field.
Milwaukee entered the season without its staff ace after trading Freddy Peralta to the Mets. His 2.70 ERA, 5.5 fWAR and fifth-place Cy Young finish departed without a high-priced free agent arriving to replace them.
In this context, Pat Murphy obliterated Milwaukee’s expectations entering the season.
But the counterargument here is institutional continuity. Milwaukee won 92 games in 2023, 93 in 2024, 97 in 2025 and already has 98 this season.
Murphy has been excellent, but this is also a remarkably stable player-development and acquisition machine. They even have experience replacing their staff ace after an offseason trade, with Corbin Burnes being moved after the 2023 season and Milwaukee still finding a way to win more games the next season.
And voters have recognized Murphy for this overperformance; he has won the Manager of the Year award in consecutive seasons, receiving 27 of 30 first-place votes last year.
To be clear, I’m not arguing that voter fatigue is the reason he shouldn’t win it this year.
Instead, one has to ask how much of Milwaukee’s success represents new evidence of Murphy’s managerial prowess and how much represents a well-oiled organization that has repeatedly proved capable of punching above its weight.
Don Mattingly legitimately orchestrated a turnaround
Philadelphia was 9-19 when it dismissed Rob Thomson after losing 11 of 12 games. Under interim manager Don Mattingly, the Phillies have gone 77-51—a .602 winning percentage and roughly a 97-win pace.
It is a beautifully simple case: Same expensive roster. Different manager. Dramatically different results.
That being said, there are a few details that do not work in Mattingly’s favor here.
He managed only 128 games, not a full 162.
Philadelphia was widely expected to be one of the NL’s most dangerous playoff contenders entering the season, on the strength of their rotation and the veteran stars in their lineup.
Despite that, they are currently only 86-70 and did not win their division.
“Donnie Baseball” legitimately deserves credit for saving the Phillies’ season. But voting for Mattingly means rewarding four months of good enough management over six months from Weiss or Murphy.
Walt Weiss didn’t beat the preseason projections
MLB.com’s preseason staff vote selected the Mets to win the division and left Atlanta outside the projected Wild Card field. FanGraphs was far more bullish, projecting the Braves for 91 wins and an 87.6 percent chance of reaching the postseason.
It’s not true to say that nobody thought the Braves could win. With 92 wins and counting, Weiss has essentially delivered the regular season the projection systems expected.
But even the computers could not anticipate how many different versions of that talent Weiss would have to manage. When you look at the Braves roster this season, it’s significantly different than the team’s plans entering spring training:
Four projected starters lost during Spring Training
Ronald Acuña Jr.’s two hamstring injuries
Michael Harris II playing through a quad injury
Austin Riley’s slow return from core muscle surgery
Sean Murphy beginning the season injured, then getting injured shortly after returning
Spencer Strider and Reynaldo López moving in and out of availability and effectiveness
Robert Suarez being unavailable since June
Constant bullpen and lineup reconstruction
Younger pitchers being introduced or reassigned as needs changed
And yet despite all of that, Atlanta never relinquished first place and has already improved by 16 wins over last season, with six games left to play.
The management is visible
This is the heart of Weiss’s case: He has consistently pulled the right lever at the right time.
Benching Kim for Dubón and Mateo
Using approximately 125 different batting orders
Changing leadoff hitters as circumstances demanded
Moving starters into relief roles
Refusing to force conventional bullpen assignments onto an unconventional collection of pitchers
Trusting Victor Mederos, A.J. Smith-Shawver, Ray Kerr and Dylan Dodd in the division-clinching game on Sunday.
I have been particularly impressed by Weiss’s willingness to pull a struggling starter early and turn to his bullpen. The Braves are 25-15 in one-run games. That record cannot be attributed entirely to Weiss - one-run outcomes contain plenty of randomness - but it is consistent with a team that has repeatedly survived narrow margins through flexible bullpen usage and late-inning substitutions.
Atlanta’s 98 wRC+ is another point in Weiss’s favor. He has not ridden an overwhelming offense to 92 wins. Instead, he has recognized when to push his pitching staff for one more out and how to deploy his bench to exploit favorable late-inning matchups.
Murphy maximized an organizational machine. Mattingly awakened an expensive roster. Weiss spent six months solving a different Braves team almost every week.
What the award should recognize
If Manager of the Year is an award for outperforming preseason projections, Pat Murphy has an argument to win it.
If it is an award for producing the clearest midseason turnaround, Don Mattingly has the best case.
But if the award is supposed to recognize managing - the daily work of choosing the right player over the expensive one, changing roles before convention demands it, and keeping a roster functional while its intended form repeatedly disappears - then the ballot should begin with Walt Weiss.
Pat Murphy managed the National League’s best team. Don Mattingly rescued its most disappointing one. Walt Weiss turned every new version of the Braves into a division champion.
That is the job. This season, nobody did it better.
Concur.
Watching almost every game, I've been more impressed with Walt's managing more than any recent manager. His in-game decisions; the coaching staff he put together; the changing line ups (he seems married to the left-righty batter/pitcher scenario, which is very different from previous Braves managers.). His recognition of what Dubon could do for his management of the lineup. Now, if he could just fix Riley! (haha).
You convinced me.