Extend Kim? Nope. $16m, take it or bye-bye. We have options. John Gil is in AA at 19, and his elders Lodise and Miller were picks #2 and 3 from our 2025 draft. That should cover us if and when there's baseball in 2027. The fewer contractual overhangs we have going into the MLBPA negotiations, the stronger the owners position will be. Escalating MLB salaries are not the Braves' friend, and the underlying sports network revenues are shaky as cable/satellite bundles decline.
Retaining Allen is popular enough with me (at a salary commensurate with his OPS) even if he shares the 9th spot in our batting order with pinch hitters. $16 million not spend on Kim would surely benefit us elsewhere if he opts out. Sure Kim hit 17 homers in 2023 -- who didn't?! Call me frugal, but the man has never slugged .400.
Citing Kim's SLG and HR totals feels like an odd choice, considering he is a glove-first infielder. Especially odd considering you're okay retaining Allen, whom I can't even imagine hitting a homerun, even if I close my eyes and try really hard. He hasn't barrelled a ball all season.
Plus, there is room for regression in Allen's fielding metrics.
Imagine it's your own money. You don't pay $16 million for a glove first SS. Besides, Allen is the guy you want out there in the late innings and if the Braves aren't ahead by the 8th it's a bigger problem than shortstop.
I'd happily pay $16M for 80% of Kim's San Diego production. He was a 3-4 WAR player at a premium position, still in his 20s. He was on his way to a $25M AAV contract, but for the injury.
I can understand wanting more pop from the bat, but I'll take the value as it comes, personally.
That's probably what we'll get, excluding 2023, if he opts in, and that may be worth it for the one year. Once a SS reaches the $25m AAV level, that's not a good thing since homey don't do that. We want every year of a shortstop's pre-arb control years, as it was with Swanson, Andrelton and Furcal, and will be with Gil or whichever guy(s) is our man for the rest of the decade.
We should always have one or two positions set aside for young guys under control, right now Baldwin and a SS, and hope they're amenable to a team-friendly seven figure AAV extension.
I agree with most of this. I'm not optimistic that any of our young options will be ready at the start of 27, but we can worry about that next year if Kim opts in.
Baseball America just gave the Braves farm system a "C" grade for the season.
They earlier rated the farm system 29th out of 30..
I think it s time to scrap the $22 million payroll cap if we expect to contend with Mets (great farm system, extra deep pockets) and Phillies ( better farm system, better ownership)
I think AA's model makes sense given the payroll constraints we have. He can't compete with the peak years of the top teams - PHI, NYM, LAD. Instead, he's trying to compete across time, years or % of years in contention.
PHI and NYM have better farm systems, in part, because they've been lesser teams for the better part of a decade. Those teams are going to have their cycles. And when they are up, when their farms are producing and they are spending, the Braves have to tip their hats, keep their heads down, and keep working. But PHI and NYM will be down again; their farms will dry up as they make win-now moves and their draft picks suffer, and the back end years of those massive contracts will start weigh them down, when they're paying $50M for a ~40 Soto to DH, for example.
Until or unless ownership removes the handcuffs, this is - and should be - the model.
Amen about the Mets and Phillies. Even without Wheeler, the Phils have few weaknesses and now the best closer in the game. Great front office strategy over several years.
Also, our farm has produced 4x ROTY caliber prospects in the last 4 seasons. (Not counting Waldrup, AJSS, or Grissom.) Other than Baltimore, who was coming out of a long rebuild, I'm not sure another team can say that. Our farm always looks thin on paper and always produces talent. The fact that publications aren't high on Fuentes, Ritchie, and Caminiti, for example, doesn't really concern me. The results have been there.
I agree with you 100. Only point of a farm system is not to be ranked highly but to supply the mlb team with help on the field to get them to the playoffs. The Braves have had that better than almost every other team. It might be the best team at this but it is close.
Great detailed analysis. Kim's agent, Boras, envisions dollar signs in his sleep and, regardless of Kim's current thoughts, will convince Kim that he'd be a fool to not try the FA market. With that happening, I would be happy to see Allen at SS and put some real money into a starting pitcher and beef up the backend of the bullpen.
This sucks. Obviously we knew this risk when we signed him and him performing is better then the alternative but man it would have been nice to have shortstop locked up.
Question is: do we pull the trigger on 2/40 or 3/56 cause I think that’s what it would take. It’s too much but you might have too. 🤷 once again I’m not jealous of AA.
Second thing, I would absolutely gut the farm for Neto. Not going to happen but I’m with you in the sense it’s fun to dream on.
I think 16+16 (player) should get it done. Kim is in a similar spot as last offseason. (He isn't projected to miss time, but he's a year older and teams have to input the bad 2025 data into their projection models.) He wants $100M+ contract but needs a bounce back season to get it.
Atlanta is a good fit. We position our infielders well, we're competitive, good clubhouse, players like the org, and Kim and Profar are close. It makes too much sense to me. I suppose a team could offer more than that but, again, last offseason is a pretty strong comp, so I'll use that.
I would love for you to be right. And I don’t disagree with any of your logic but his agent is Boris. My feeling is if it were 16/16 it would have already happened or would happen in the next day or two.
And frankly Bichette is also injured so there is a world he has a golden opportunity to cash in on a horrendous shortstop market.
Yeah, on the original question, I'd pay either of those figures. The real question is would Boras be satisfied with something that wasn't long-term?
To address Garrett's comment, I do think there's going to be one irrational actor in the market (there usually is) that's confident with overpaying to fix a problem area. Dansby wasn't worth 7/$177M, but the Cubs didn't have a plan to fill second base and so signing Dansby so they could move Nico Hoerner was the route they took. Detroit's gotten -1.1 WAR from their shortstops this year, although they do have McGonigle coming, while Cleveland is at -1.1 as well and Travis Bazzana is more of a 2B than a SS. Heck, the Yanks could get in on that here if they truly think Volpe is cooked
I think adding a ~$14M player option would benefit both parties, and probably gets it done. Kim gets an offer similar to last offseason, and a mulligan on a bad year.
If he plays up to his pre-injury standards, the Braves get a 3-4 bWAR season at SS for 16M. Big win! Then Kim opts out.
If he doesn't return to form, if he's the 1.3 bWAR (per 162) player he's been this season, the Braves end up overpaying by ~5M a season. That would suck, but, as a floor, it doesn't crush you. One less overpaid reliever.
The ceiling feels more likely than the floor, to me, and I'm taking the over on the 2.0 bWAR break even point.
Extend Kim? Nope. $16m, take it or bye-bye. We have options. John Gil is in AA at 19, and his elders Lodise and Miller were picks #2 and 3 from our 2025 draft. That should cover us if and when there's baseball in 2027. The fewer contractual overhangs we have going into the MLBPA negotiations, the stronger the owners position will be. Escalating MLB salaries are not the Braves' friend, and the underlying sports network revenues are shaky as cable/satellite bundles decline.
Retaining Allen is popular enough with me (at a salary commensurate with his OPS) even if he shares the 9th spot in our batting order with pinch hitters. $16 million not spend on Kim would surely benefit us elsewhere if he opts out. Sure Kim hit 17 homers in 2023 -- who didn't?! Call me frugal, but the man has never slugged .400.
Citing Kim's SLG and HR totals feels like an odd choice, considering he is a glove-first infielder. Especially odd considering you're okay retaining Allen, whom I can't even imagine hitting a homerun, even if I close my eyes and try really hard. He hasn't barrelled a ball all season.
Plus, there is room for regression in Allen's fielding metrics.
Imagine it's your own money. You don't pay $16 million for a glove first SS. Besides, Allen is the guy you want out there in the late innings and if the Braves aren't ahead by the 8th it's a bigger problem than shortstop.
I'd happily pay $16M for 80% of Kim's San Diego production. He was a 3-4 WAR player at a premium position, still in his 20s. He was on his way to a $25M AAV contract, but for the injury.
I can understand wanting more pop from the bat, but I'll take the value as it comes, personally.
That's probably what we'll get, excluding 2023, if he opts in, and that may be worth it for the one year. Once a SS reaches the $25m AAV level, that's not a good thing since homey don't do that. We want every year of a shortstop's pre-arb control years, as it was with Swanson, Andrelton and Furcal, and will be with Gil or whichever guy(s) is our man for the rest of the decade.
We should always have one or two positions set aside for young guys under control, right now Baldwin and a SS, and hope they're amenable to a team-friendly seven figure AAV extension.
I agree with most of this. I'm not optimistic that any of our young options will be ready at the start of 27, but we can worry about that next year if Kim opts in.
Baseball America just gave the Braves farm system a "C" grade for the season.
They earlier rated the farm system 29th out of 30..
I think it s time to scrap the $22 million payroll cap if we expect to contend with Mets (great farm system, extra deep pockets) and Phillies ( better farm system, better ownership)
I think AA's model makes sense given the payroll constraints we have. He can't compete with the peak years of the top teams - PHI, NYM, LAD. Instead, he's trying to compete across time, years or % of years in contention.
PHI and NYM have better farm systems, in part, because they've been lesser teams for the better part of a decade. Those teams are going to have their cycles. And when they are up, when their farms are producing and they are spending, the Braves have to tip their hats, keep their heads down, and keep working. But PHI and NYM will be down again; their farms will dry up as they make win-now moves and their draft picks suffer, and the back end years of those massive contracts will start weigh them down, when they're paying $50M for a ~40 Soto to DH, for example.
Until or unless ownership removes the handcuffs, this is - and should be - the model.
Amen about the Mets and Phillies. Even without Wheeler, the Phils have few weaknesses and now the best closer in the game. Great front office strategy over several years.
Also, our farm has produced 4x ROTY caliber prospects in the last 4 seasons. (Not counting Waldrup, AJSS, or Grissom.) Other than Baltimore, who was coming out of a long rebuild, I'm not sure another team can say that. Our farm always looks thin on paper and always produces talent. The fact that publications aren't high on Fuentes, Ritchie, and Caminiti, for example, doesn't really concern me. The results have been there.
I agree with you 100. Only point of a farm system is not to be ranked highly but to supply the mlb team with help on the field to get them to the playoffs. The Braves have had that better than almost every other team. It might be the best team at this but it is close.
Great detailed analysis. Kim's agent, Boras, envisions dollar signs in his sleep and, regardless of Kim's current thoughts, will convince Kim that he'd be a fool to not try the FA market. With that happening, I would be happy to see Allen at SS and put some real money into a starting pitcher and beef up the backend of the bullpen.
This sucks. Obviously we knew this risk when we signed him and him performing is better then the alternative but man it would have been nice to have shortstop locked up.
Question is: do we pull the trigger on 2/40 or 3/56 cause I think that’s what it would take. It’s too much but you might have too. 🤷 once again I’m not jealous of AA.
Second thing, I would absolutely gut the farm for Neto. Not going to happen but I’m with you in the sense it’s fun to dream on.
I think 16+16 (player) should get it done. Kim is in a similar spot as last offseason. (He isn't projected to miss time, but he's a year older and teams have to input the bad 2025 data into their projection models.) He wants $100M+ contract but needs a bounce back season to get it.
Atlanta is a good fit. We position our infielders well, we're competitive, good clubhouse, players like the org, and Kim and Profar are close. It makes too much sense to me. I suppose a team could offer more than that but, again, last offseason is a pretty strong comp, so I'll use that.
I would love for you to be right. And I don’t disagree with any of your logic but his agent is Boris. My feeling is if it were 16/16 it would have already happened or would happen in the next day or two.
And frankly Bichette is also injured so there is a world he has a golden opportunity to cash in on a horrendous shortstop market.
Yeah, on the original question, I'd pay either of those figures. The real question is would Boras be satisfied with something that wasn't long-term?
To address Garrett's comment, I do think there's going to be one irrational actor in the market (there usually is) that's confident with overpaying to fix a problem area. Dansby wasn't worth 7/$177M, but the Cubs didn't have a plan to fill second base and so signing Dansby so they could move Nico Hoerner was the route they took. Detroit's gotten -1.1 WAR from their shortstops this year, although they do have McGonigle coming, while Cleveland is at -1.1 as well and Travis Bazzana is more of a 2B than a SS. Heck, the Yanks could get in on that here if they truly think Volpe is cooked
I think adding a ~$14M player option would benefit both parties, and probably gets it done. Kim gets an offer similar to last offseason, and a mulligan on a bad year.
If he plays up to his pre-injury standards, the Braves get a 3-4 bWAR season at SS for 16M. Big win! Then Kim opts out.
If he doesn't return to form, if he's the 1.3 bWAR (per 162) player he's been this season, the Braves end up overpaying by ~5M a season. That would suck, but, as a floor, it doesn't crush you. One less overpaid reliever.
The ceiling feels more likely than the floor, to me, and I'm taking the over on the 2.0 bWAR break even point.
Sign me up!