What Has to Go Right for the Atlanta Braves in 2026
From health to internal development, is Atlanta’s path back to contention narrower than it looks?
The easy explanation for the Braves falling short of expectations in 2024 and 2025 is injuries. Atlanta Braves Holdings chairman Terry McGuirk directly referenced missing key players numerous times in the organization’s third quarter earnings call, mentioning how “our pitchers lost a lot of time to injuries” and how the team’s struggles “in the last season, and even into the previous year” were largely due to an above-average number of missing pieces from the lineup.
But it’s clearly more than that. Injuries explain some of what went wrong, not all of it, and they don’t fully account for why several Braves underperformed in 2025 or why the margin for error feels so thin heading into 2026. So what does a successful season actually look like for the Atlanta Braves, from an inputs perspective? Let’s talk about it.
The injuries are a factor, sure
I don’t have an issue with McGuirk and others blaming injuries, because the Braves have dealt with a disproportionate number of injuries in the last two seasons.
It just can’t be the only explanation.
To recap, the 2024 Atlanta Braves were the first team to make the playoffs after losing three Opening Day starters for the final 35+ games plus the postseason, per OptaStats.
And the wild thing here is that that stat sort of undersells Atlanta’s injury issues. The Braves had only four position players get into more than 110 games, while the Opening Day lineup got a grand total of six innings together ALL SEASON.1
To follow up that disastrous injury luck, the 2025 Braves then became the first MLB team in history to have all five members of the Opening Day rotation to be on the 60-day injured list at the same time. They also lost Spencer Strider for over a month to a hamstring injury after just one start, so the top six rotation options all went down in 2025 for at least one month.
And of course, 2026 is already off to an inauspicious start with Ha-Seong Kim tearing a tendon in his finger while training back in Korea; he is set to miss multiple months of the season after surgery in mid-January.
But the flipside of this is that the Braves have more depth than probably any single season in the Alex Anthopoulos tenure. Kim is being replaced by Mauricio Dubón, a two-time utility Gold Glove winner who reportedly “grades out well at shortstop” in the team’s internal metrics, per Anthopoulos. Sean Murphy’s hip injury, one that may keep him out until May, means Atlanta will need to rely on the reigning NL Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin, who put up a 126 OPS+ last year and improved defensively over the course of the season. Even setup man Joe Jiménez, still trying to return from a 2024 knee injury, is being replaced in the setup role by last year’s NL saves leader in Robert Suarez.
More injuries will inevitably come - they always do. But Atlanta’s better positioned to weather a normal amount of injuries than they’ve ever been. No, the ultimate factor in the direction of the 2026 season is something else.
The stars have to star
In 2022, when the Philadelphia Phillies went to the World Series, their stars played like stars. Designated hitter and left fielder Kyle Schwarber led the National League in home runs with 36. Catcher J.T. Realmuto led all catchers with a .276 average and 130 OPS+, winning both a Silver Slugger award and a Gold Glove. Bryce Harper, returning from an elbow injury that left him virtually unable to play the field, hit .286 with a 146 OPS+. Two of Philly’s starters had ERAs under 3.50, led by Zack Wheeler’s 2.82.
In 2024, when the New York Mets lost the NLCS to the (eventual champion) Los Angeles Dodgers, Francisco Lindor was runner-up for the National League MVP award after hitting .273 with a 137 OPS+, 33 homers, and 29 stolen bases. Pete Alonso mashed 34 homers, while three different starters qualified for the ERA title and closer Edwin Diaz picked up 20 saves and 6 additional wins.
You get the idea.
(It’s worth pointing out that both of those teams THEN added a big contract that winter, with the Phillies signing Trea Turner to play shortstop and the Mets adding outfielder Juan Soto.)
Atlanta’s stars need to shine. We wrote that story last week, addressing the aftermath of Kim’s injury by dropping the realization that it doesn’t matter who plays shortstop if the stars - Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley - aren’t starring.
But here’s the thing.
2023 Matt Olson, the one that led all of baseball with 54 homers, isn’t walking through that door. Neither is MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. and his 40-70 season, or Austin Riley’s 7th-place MVP finish.
But that’s fine. The Braves don’t need career years. They need something much rarer: multiple stars simultaneously clearing their own bars.
Austin Riley can’t put up a 20th percentile performance again. Acuña doesn’t need to steal 40 bases, but he does need to be elite at something again. Matt Olson doesn’t need to hit 54 homers, but he can’t be the team leader with 29 like he was last year.
The same is true on the pitching side.
Chris Sale doesn’t need to be Cy Young Sale again...but he does need to give us a full season. Spencer Strider doesn’t need to lead baseball in strikeouts again…but he needs to bring down last season’s 4.45 ERA.
And someone unexpected - one person - needs to outperform expectations by giving them 180 high-end innings. Is that Spencer Schwellenbach? Perhaps it’s Reynaldo López, finally healthy for the first time in two or three seasons from his nagging shoulder issue.
The role players need to step up
Similar to the stars, you don’t need Mauricio Dubón, Mike Yastrzemski, et al to be world beaters…but they need to earn their roster spots. Yaz is being brought in to mash righties and play good defense in all three outfield spots. If he simply treads water, that’s not good enough. Two of the role players need to meaningfully beat replacement-level production. They’ve been brought in for a specific role, and they need to fill it.
Atlanta’s lineup against righties, even without Murphy or Kim to start the season, looks pretty strong. Here’s a projection of what it might look like for game two against the Kansas City Royals” (KC’s likely Opening Day starter is lefty Cole Ragans)
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Jurickson Profar
1B Matt Olson
C Drake Baldwin
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
2B Ozzie Albies
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
But against lefties, who steps up to fill in for the lefty-mashing Murphy? Does Eli White take over in left field? Can Riley improve on last year’s 97 OPS+ versus southpaws?
If all of this happens, the Braves unlock some breathing room.
The margin for error has to widen again
Atlanta’s generationally-dominant offense in 2023, combined with Spencer Strider’s league-leading strikeout totals anchoring the rotation and a general lack of injuries bought the Braves some breathing room that season.
Sean Murphy slumps in the second half due to heat-induced fatigue and a (previously hidden) hip injury? No worries, the Braves were still scoring almost seven runs a game in August. All-Star Bryce Elder put up a 5.11 ERA in the second half of the 2023 season. No problem, because Charlie Morton gave them a 1.91 in August, Spencer Strider a 2.97, and even Darius Vines made a spot start of six innings with only two runs allowed in a 7-3 win over Colorado in Coors Field.
2023 had slack. 2024 and 2025 had none.
A majority of Atlanta’s players need to be performing above their projections so that one bad month doesn’t end the season, a cold stretch doesn’t force desperation moves, and giving playing time to their depth pieces becomes optional, not mandatory.
None of this is guaranteed, and that’s the point.
The Braves don’t need everything to go right in 2026. They need a very specific set of things to go right at the same time. The stars need to be reliably excellent instead of intermittently great. One pitcher needs to emerge as more than the scouting report. A couple of role players need to turn defined jobs into real advantages. And the cumulative effect of all of that needs to restore the breathing room Atlanta has been missing.
If those boxes get checked, the Braves don’t just look like a playoff team, they look like a dangerous one. If they don’t, then no amount of depth, flexibility, or contingency planning will matter, because the margin for error will remain exactly where it’s been the last two seasons: nonexistent.
Injuries may shape the story again. They always do. But in 2026, they won’t be the deciding factor.
The Braves already know what has to go right. Now we’ll see if it actually does.
Sean Murphy left in the top half of game one’s seventh inning with his oblique injury, not returning until May 27th…after Ronald Acuña Jr. was lost for the season to a torn ACL.
There were obviously a ton of injuries, and given that, I think the team actually held up pretty well. But one injury that doesn’t get talked about enough is Austin Riley. When he’s not that 800-pound gorilla in the lineup, you really feel it. His defense has kept improving, which has been huge, but more than that, he and Ozzie Albies together are the heart of this team.
Even though guys like Michael Harris or Drake Baldwin can step up at times and make a real difference, I think the way the Braves go is ultimately tied to Riley and Ozzie. Acuña, Olson, and the rest are probably going to be fine in a baseline sense. But outside of the devastating starting-pitching injuries, I really believe that whether this season is great or just manageable comes down to a healthy, bounce-back year from Riley and Albies. Great read--thank you Lindsay.
Completely agree with you, Lindsay. My biggest concern is banking on all five injured pitchers coming back to being highly effective for a whole season - I think very unlikely and the lack of signing a proven SP will result in a crippling deficit, with the DFA merry-go-round being put back into motion. Hope I'm wrong.