What if the Atlanta Braves Don’t Sign a Qualifying Offer Player This Winter?

Now that Atlanta's 2nd-highest pick is after the first round, what if Alex Anthopoulos refuses to sacrifice that pick for a free agent?

I wrote on Monday about the likely futility of Atlanta attempting to fill every need via free agency and how they’d likely need to cut a corner if they solely relied on throwing cash at the roster’s deficiencies.

I concluded it was futile even with the benefit of giving the team one Qualifying Offer player per scenario, whether that was starters Dylan Cease or Michael King or shortstop Bo Bichette.

But y’all thought that wasn’t tough enough. One of the most common pieces of feedback that I got was that President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos was unlikely to sign a Qualifying Offer player and sacrifice both his 2nd-highest pick and $500k from the team’s international bonus pool.

And that was before catcher Drake Baldwin won the National League Rookie of the Year award, giving the team an additional draft pick after the first round. By my calculations, that pick should come in at either #28 or #29, increasing the QO penalty from pick #50 and its roughly $1.93M slot value to the late first round pick and its $3M+ value.

So let’s be a bit more restrained in our offseason projection. Let’s look at some sample offseasons, sticking with the ‘Atlanta Max’ of $22M/year for any signing and excluding all Qualifying Offer guys. While we won’t project exact trades here, we can clearly point out the areas where the Braves are likely to pursue one, using published trade lists from reputable outlets.

Ground rules: First, we’re not going to allow Atlanta to sign any qualifying offer player. We’ll stick with the $55M projection for payroll additions, which would have brought the team’s spending to 5th in the league last season. All contract figures will come from Jon Becker’s composite predictions, which combine nine discrete industry predictions into one median calculation for each free agent, while the trade targets will come from the MLB Trade Rumors Top 40 list.

Where’s the likeliest place for a trade?

To me, it’s the starting rotation. Of the thirteen Qualifying Offer players, eight are pitchers, with seven of those being starters. And naturally, it’s the most impactful arms in this year’s market, including San Diego Padres righties Dylan Cease and Michael King, Houston Astros lefty Framber Valdez, Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen, and Ranger Suárez of the Philadelphia Phillies.

The other qualifying offers went to 2nd-tier options in Chicago Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, Milwaukee Brewers righty Brandon Woodruff (who came back in July after missing nearly two years for shoulder surgery), and closer Edwin Díaz of the New York Mets.

Because of that concentration of QOs at the very top of the starter market, there are not a lot of free agent options that are obvious postseason caliber guys, someone you would be confident giving the ball to for a Game Three in October.

And that means a pivot to the trade market feels likely. We’ll look at package deals later this week, but some potential options off the MLBTR list include:

Division rivals:

MacKenzie Gore, Nationals
Sandy Alcantara & Edward Cabrera, Marlins

Rebuilding teams:

Joe Ryan & Pablo Lopez, Twins
Sonny Gray, Cardinals
Kyle Freeland, Rockies

We’re cheap and won’t pay this guy or want out of his contract:

Mitch Keller, Pirates
Brady Singer, Reds
Luis Severino, Athletics
Luis Castillo, Mariners

From that list, give me Lopez, Ryan, Gray, Castillo, and Severino, likely in that order. We’ll break down these potential trades later this week and the fit of each guy, as well as other additions from their teams in a package deal.

In the meantime, let’s look at some sample offseasons with both the ‘Atlanta Max’ and excluding a QO player in mind.

Trading for a starter

If the Braves trade for a starter, that frees up their free agent money to go towards shortstop and the bullpen. We’ll assume a $22M deal for whatever starter it is and go from there.

SP: TRADE ACQUISITION ($22M)
SS: Ha-Seong Kim (2/$26M = $13M AAV)
Closer: Raisel Iglesias (2/$24M = $12M AAV)
Set-up: Shawn Armstrong (1/$8M = $8M AAV)
Bat: ???

You’re already at $55M before adding a bat to the offense, so this means either cutting the corner with someone like Lane Thomas (who is predicted 1/$4M) or getting a bat back in the starting pitcher deal.

I really do think a package deal ends up being the way to go, adding in an additional pitching prospect to get the deal over the finish line and coming out of the deal with a rotational bat as well.

But let’s look at a scenario if they trade for a shortstop, because there are two wrinkles to this.

Trading for a shortstop

When we broke down SS trade options last week, we discussed whether or not it would be a young guy who needed to (eventually) be paid or someone who had already been paid. So let’s look at both options.

Scenario 1: Pricey veteran

SS: Corey Seager (Texas retains $10M AAV = $22M AAV)
SP: Michael Lorenzen (1/$8M = $8M AAV)
Closer: Devin Williams (3/$43.5M = 14.5M AAV)
Set-up: Tyler Rogers (2/$20.5M = $10.25M AAV)

This brings you right up to $54.75M and that’s with Seager serving as both the shortstop and your big bat. While the Rangers are reportedly interested in moving outfielder Adolis García as well, he’s also owed $12.1M (estimated) in his final arbitration year and has had worrisome trends with his chase (increasing) and his bat speed (decreasing). On the pitching front, we’d be hoping that Jeremy Hefner would improve Lorenzen and make him a bit more consistent.

Scenario 2: Young option

SS: TRADE ACQUISITION ($2M AAV)
SP: Chris Bassitt (2/$36M = $18M AAV)
Closer: Raisel Iglesias (2/$24M = $12M AAV)
Set-up: Pete Fairbanks (2/$19M = $9.5M AAV)
Bat: Mike Yastrzemski (1/$11M = $11M AAV)

The issue is that the prospect capital out the door here is likely the most painful of every option so far. Whether it’s Jordan Lawlar (who sources have told me Arizona is not enthusiastic about moving), CJ Abrams (who is not a good defender), or a surprise name like Zach Neto or Jeremy Peña, this deal will drain the farm system of some of the top-end talent.

But paying virtually nothing for your shortstop does give the team flexibility to add excellent options everywhere else. This proposal brings the team to roughly $52.5M AAV in new money, while strengthening the bullpen with two former closers and a bat in Yastrzemski that does a lot of what Tim Hyers likes to do - low whiff and chase, high walk, and is a good baserunner to boot.

Which path do the Braves take this winter?

As I discussed on Monday, the team needs to answer some basic questions to know which path to take this winter. But if they’re looking for more of a standard Braves offseason - one big free agency add and some ancillary additions around that player, coupled with a trade acquisition or two - the questions become more focused: How much does it take to solve shortstop, in both money and prospect capital? What’s the desired ceiling of the rotation add? Which prospects are you willing to sacrifice?