What to know about Atlanta's new starting catcher Drake Baldwin
Atlanta's top position player prospect will be on the Opening Day roster thanks to Sean Murphy's rib injury
Welcome back to our “Meet a Prospect” series, where we introduce you to those young Braves players that are important to get to know.
Next in the series is catcher Drake Baldwin, who is presumably going to make his MLB debut on Opening Day after veteran options in camp Curt Casali (released) and Sandy León (reassigned to minor league camp) weren’t able to leap him on the depth chart.
(Edit: After this article was submitted, the Braves signed veteran catcher James McCann to a minor league deal. He’s reported to be starting the season in Gwinnett, as he did not have a spring training to prepare for the season, so he doesn’t factor into the Opening Day roster configuration.)
Let’s talk about it.
Who is Drake Baldwin?
BIO: 5’10, 210 lbs. Born March 28th, 2001 in Madison, Wisconsin.
A standout hockey player in his youth, a lineage that he shares with organizational great Tom Glavine, Baldwin was drafted in 2022’s 3rd round after a three-year career at Missouri State University. He signed for the $635,800 slot value…kinda1, and got in 24 games in his draft year, hitting a combined .258 between rookie ball and Single-A.
Across the next two seasons, Baldwin rose all the way through the system, getting to Triple-A Gwinnett by mid-June and having a bit of an offensive breakout once there. For the Stripers, he hit .298/.407/.484 with 12 homers in 72 games, driving in 55 and almost as many walks (52) as strikeouts (54).
What were the scouts saying when he was picked?
He was a bat-first catcher that was fringe defensively, with okay framing, iffy blocking, and an arm that was just okay. Largely went where scouts projected him to go, although they acknowledged that his defense could improve with the right team guiding him and his willingness to learn and improve.
What happened to him in pro ball?
He’s done nothing but get better as a baseball player, both on the conventional statistics and with the inputs that create those.
Given that AAA has Statcast in all of their parks, we have detailed numbers on the inputs and they paint a picture of a patient, high-contact hitter that should have an above-average power ceiling.
Contact: 79% overall contact, 86.2% zone contact
Plate Discipline: 22.5% chase, 44.5% swing rate, 70% zone swing rate
Power: 10.2% barrel rate, 92.8 mph average EV, 106.5 90th percentile EV, 111.9 max EV
Batted ball profile: 50% GB, 25% LD, 22% FB, launch angle 7.7%, StDev of LA 26.4
Of note is that he’s played only 45 games behind the plate in AAA - as a catcher, he’s not playing every day and so 30 of his appearances have been at designated hitter.
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What are the scouts saying now?
Baldwin’s not only settled into above-average to plus power but he’s also made progress behind the plate. Baseball America now calls him a “steady, reliable defender” with a below-average arm that is mitigated by his quick and efficient release. MLB Pipeline is more bullish on his arm, calling it plus and complimenting his ability to frame the low strike.
But one commonality in both writeups is that he’s seen as a good gamecaller and good with a pitching staff. Baseball America took it one step further, explaining that the Braves internally “were excited about the strides Baldwin made in his relationships with pitchers” and relaying that externally, “scouts view his ability to manage a staff as his carrying defensive tool.”
Prediction for this season
I honestly have no idea whether or not he’ll struggle at the major league level on Opening Day, but I know he has all of the tools to be successful.
The best-case scenario is he comes up and settles in right away, being able to manage the staff effectively while letting the power flash. It would give the Braves some security for both a recurrence of injury or slumping offense from Sean Murphy while also giving the team cover for an injury to Marcell Ozuna. Think of this as the William Contreras role as far as usage is concerned, but with a much better defense than Contreras showed here.
The more likely scenario is that he comes up and is…fine. He has some rookie moments, but also some signs of promise. Once Murphy is back from his rib injury, which is expected to be as soon as mid-April, Baldwin’s probably being optioned back down to Gwinnett to continue playing almost every single day.
Either way, he has all of the tools to be successful and the silver lining to this scenario is it gets Atlanta information. Either he’s ready, which means he can help your offense and lineup, or he’s not, meaning that you’ve uncovered areas with which he needs to work when he returns to Gwinnett.
I’d call that a win-win scenario.
Technically - Atlanta gave him a $633,300 signing bonus plus he received the $2500 contingency bonus that’s paid once a contract is signed but isn’t counted towards the bonus pool, meaning he technically got slot value but the Braves saved that $2500 off of their total. Do that with all 20 players and there’s an extra $50k you can offer someone.
As a lefty batter Baldwin could work nicely into a platoon going forward. But you don't put a $15 million a year former all-star in a weak side platoon role. Murphy's present status reminds me of where we were a few years ago with Marcell Ozuna. Too good to dump, despite problems. Time to let him build up his trade value to the max -- then, as it turns out keep him if he builds it high enough. Ironically, if both Baldwin and Murphy hit maximum expectations, it could be Ozuna's eventual contract expiration which opens up playing time for both.
How is it possible we have waited so long for Angel Perdomo—-and then the dump over the Braves B squad known as the Angels? Is it because they will be bringing up so many pitching prospects from Aaa and AA—they don’t have time for Angel to be the long man or so till he gets his velocity back? We have been waiting for so long and now this …uggh. I really wanted him to work out. Great write up about Baldwin.