"That’s part of what happens when you build one of the deepest lineups in baseball"...and actually USE all the pieces. Walt USES ALL 26 GUYS; or he and AA release them. EVERYONE (well, almost) gets REGULAR ABs so someone like Lindsay can create more than "sample size" to either calm fan howlings down, or justify a move with an individual player. You're the fan psychiatrist, Lindsay!!
Lindsay, this is very, very interesting. No question there is a difference between RISP and Clutch in high leverage situations.
My question is: Given the small sample size of AB's in High Leverage situations, how much of this is real and how much of this (may be) small sample noise in either direction - good or bad?
How large a sample size is needed for sabermetric stats to be reliable?
Sample size requirements vary by metric. Plate discipline stats like swing and contact rates stabilize relatively quickly (around 50-100 plate appearances). Power metrics take longer (150-200 plate appearances), while batting average and BABIP require much larger samples (over 500 plate appearances) to be truly reliable.
So, I think I'd have to say while this is "interesting" (and in most cases, seems to confirm my priors) with the small sample sizes we're looking at, it's just as likely to be random variance than it is likely to be statistically meaningful.
That's right, I did write about that! Good find. Dubón's clutch numbers haven't been this good in his career, so probably more random variance/SSS shenanigans than we want to admit
A superb and important article, Lindsay. I can't help but narrow my focus to Riley: so many poor AB's in high leverage situations. I know it's eating at him. You rightly point out Dubon's very effective approach with two strikes: shorten up the swing and go to RF. And yet Riley continues to fly open his left shoulder trying to launch one over the LF wall and either totally whiffing or sending a routine grounder to SS. In years past we've heard about helpful sessions he has had with Chipper. Do they even talk any more??
Riley had some good ABs recently that make it seem like he spoke to Chipper - remember the oppo double off the wall in game one vs Pittsburgh (off a breaking ball), and then the pulled double down the line (off a FB) in game two?
Anecdotally, I feel like he's been slowly getting better
"That’s part of what happens when you build one of the deepest lineups in baseball"...and actually USE all the pieces. Walt USES ALL 26 GUYS; or he and AA release them. EVERYONE (well, almost) gets REGULAR ABs so someone like Lindsay can create more than "sample size" to either calm fan howlings down, or justify a move with an individual player. You're the fan psychiatrist, Lindsay!!
Lindsay, this is very, very interesting. No question there is a difference between RISP and Clutch in high leverage situations.
My question is: Given the small sample size of AB's in High Leverage situations, how much of this is real and how much of this (may be) small sample noise in either direction - good or bad?
That's a very good question and I honestly don't know the answer. And that's kind of the problem, right?
I'd guess the stabilization point on these numbers would be much higher than we have samples so far.
I know you have written about this before:
How large a sample size is needed for sabermetric stats to be reliable?
Sample size requirements vary by metric. Plate discipline stats like swing and contact rates stabilize relatively quickly (around 50-100 plate appearances). Power metrics take longer (150-200 plate appearances), while batting average and BABIP require much larger samples (over 500 plate appearances) to be truly reliable.
So, I think I'd have to say while this is "interesting" (and in most cases, seems to confirm my priors) with the small sample sizes we're looking at, it's just as likely to be random variance than it is likely to be statistically meaningful.
That's right, I did write about that! Good find. Dubón's clutch numbers haven't been this good in his career, so probably more random variance/SSS shenanigans than we want to admit
A superb and important article, Lindsay. I can't help but narrow my focus to Riley: so many poor AB's in high leverage situations. I know it's eating at him. You rightly point out Dubon's very effective approach with two strikes: shorten up the swing and go to RF. And yet Riley continues to fly open his left shoulder trying to launch one over the LF wall and either totally whiffing or sending a routine grounder to SS. In years past we've heard about helpful sessions he has had with Chipper. Do they even talk any more??
Riley had some good ABs recently that make it seem like he spoke to Chipper - remember the oppo double off the wall in game one vs Pittsburgh (off a breaking ball), and then the pulled double down the line (off a FB) in game two?
Anecdotally, I feel like he's been slowly getting better