Which Trade Targets Actually Meet Alex Anthopoulos' Standard?
Atlanta wants an impact starter at the trade deadline, but will any actually be available?
Yesterday, we tried to reverse-engineer what Alex Anthopoulos means when he talks about acquiring an “impact starter.”
The result was a four-part framework:
Miss bats
Turn over a lineup
Win with multiple plus pitches
Neutralize hitters from both sides of the plate
That exercise identified the pitchers who most closely resemble the postseason-caliber starter Anthopoulos described.
Now comes the harder part.
The best fits are not always available. The available pitchers are not always worth the cost. And a player can match the framework without making sense for Atlanta once contract, health, control, and acquisition price enter the equation.
So today, we’re moving from theory to the trade market.
Who fits?
Who might actually be available?
And which pitchers are realistic enough for Alex Anthopoulos to pursue?
Let’s talk about it.
The Perfect Fits That Aren’t Moving
Only two players passed the somewhat arbitrary milestones we set yesterday, and neither one is available.
It’s still important to talk about them, though, because we can learn from both profiles.
The first, and perhaps more surprising, is Yankees youngster Cam Schlittler. The flamethrower debuted just last July but has hit the ground running in 2026 after 14 acclimation starts in the majors last year.
Entering Monday’s action, Schlittler is 9-6 with a 2.20 ERA and ranks among the American League or MLB leaders in several categories, including starts, ERA, FIP, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and batters faced.
Schlittler is a modern pronator. He doesn’t naturally generate much breaking-ball spin, so instead of forcing a traditional slider-or-curveball-heavy arsenal, he attacks with three upper-90s fastballs and uses his breaking balls sparingly. The approach is relentless, and pure velocity tends to play against hitters from either side of the plate.
He was also a seventh-round pick out of a small northeastern college, a reminder that impact starters do not always arrive with top-of-the-draft pedigrees.
The other name on the list, lefty Cristopher Sánchez of the Philadelphia Phillies, is a former international free agent who was traded by his original organization before debuting and blossoming in Philly.
Sánchez’s 4.8% walk rate ranks in the 96th percentile, and his sinker-changeup-slider mix has produced a 57.6% ground-ball rate, best among qualified starters and in the 98th percentile overall.
They got there in completely different ways, but that may be the most useful lesson of all: there is no single blueprint for how to find an impact starter.
The Guys Who Might Actually Be Available
The useful part of yesterday’s exercise wasn’t finding the two perfect matches that aren’t going to be traded. It was finding the pitchers who were both close enough to matter and might actually be obtainable.
Let’s grab a few names from the 3-of-4 categories list and discuss the pros, cons, and availability.
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
What the framework likes:
He’s got the Stuff+ stamp of approval with two pitches over 110 (a 116 four-seam fastball and a 122 knuckle curve), as well as the 6th-best wOBA allowed the third time through the order (.236) and a strikeout rate of 28.4% that sits as the 10th-best mark among qualified pitchers as of Sunday night.
What gives me pause:
He’s technically not through the platoon filter, but with a larger (and more statistically significant sample) of 2023-2026, Ryan’s wOBA versus lefties and righties is virtually identical. He already has one Tommy John surgery under his belt, and while he has only one IL stint since (two months for a shoulder strain in 2024), he did leave a start last month with elbow soreness.
Why he might move:
Ryan is playing on a one-year, $6.1M contract that was agreed to avoid his second arbitration year. While the mutual option for $13M next year will be declined - no mutual option has been picked up by both parties since 20141 - he’ll have one more arbitration year before free agency. The Twins, however, might want to go ahead and cash out ahead of his walk year, given they’re currently below .500 for the second consecutive season and have a negative run differential (-24).
Would I do it?
If Ryan were made available, this is exactly the type of pitcher the Braves should add - a reliable and consistent performer that can immediately slot into the #2 spot this October and then would be an overqualified #3 behind Spencer Schwellenbach next year. While this would be an expensive acquisition, it’s exactly the combination of quality and value that Alex Anthopoulos would appreciate.
UPDATE:
After this story was edited and filed for publication, Ryan went out and was obliterated for eight runs on ten hits in just four innings against Cleveland. He struck out just three and allowed six homers, a Twins franchise record for a single pitcher in one game and tied for the most allowed by any MLB player in a single game since 1900.
Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals
What the framework likes:
Cade’s got the strikeout ability (26.2%), a slightly-better-than-average .298 wOBA in the third time through the order, and has two >110 pitches via Stuff+ in his sweeper (119) and his knuckle curve (111).
What gives me pause:
Using a sweeper as one of his primary whiff pitches gives the righty Cavalli a wOBA that’s 86 points worse to lefties (.345) than it is to righties (.259). He essentially doesn’t throw the sweeper at all in those platoon situations (5% usage), defaulting to a four-seam/curveball pairing that accounts for 70% of his usage. Additionally, he’s a post-Tommy-John guy who is almost at last season’s combined innings total of 122.2 already, with two months plus a postseason of games left to pitch.
Why he might move:
Honestly, this is the hardest part of the entire deal here - the Nationals don’t need to move him. He’s in his first of four arbitration years (Super 2 player) and is playing on an $870k contract that carries a $4M club option for next year. After that, there are two more arbitration years out there before he becomes a free agent prior to the 2030 season.
Would I do it?
Almost certainly, although it’s hard to see a reason why Washington would move on from their version of a frontline starter without both a costly “godfather” offer and an organizational decision to sell controllable pieces.
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians
What the framework likes
Williams quietly showed up on three of our four leaderboards, pairing an excellent strikeout rate with premium Stuff+ while continuing to hold his own deep into games. The raw ingredients of a postseason starter are clearly here.
What gives me pause
Like several pitchers on this list, availability is the real issue. Cleveland rarely moves controllable starting pitching unless the return is overwhelming.
Why he might move
Honestly?
I don’t think he does.
If Cleveland is willing to discuss Gavin Williams, every contender in baseball will be on the phone within minutes.
Would I do it?
Without hesitation.
The problem isn’t convincing Atlanta.
It’s convincing Cleveland.
The Names That Look Better Than the Score
I want to talk about the guys that are only on two of the four lists, but before we do that, let’s explain Chris Sale’s placement in this category.
It was a mistake. I’m owning it.
Sale passed the strikeout rate filter (28.9%) and the third-time-through-wOBA filter (.291). He also passed the Stuff+ filter, with a 128 on both his slider and his sinker and an 112 on his four-seamer. That’s three categories.
That’s right, Chris Sale has one of the league’s highest Stuff+ scores at 117 overall, behind only Jacob Misiorowski (127) and Cristopher Sánchez (118).
My initial spreadsheet apparently had an innings-pitched filter that inadvertently excluded Sale’s wOBA from the tiers, somehow. It’s a lesson for me to double-check the output of my spreadsheets with the original leaderboards before treating it as the unimpeachable truth.
It’s also important to remember that this is a relatively simple statistical framework. There’s a lot that isn’t being quantified here, including deception, sequencing, competitiveness, workload management, and postseason experience. I’d take Sale over virtually any of the guys in this article and not think twice about it, because of all of those unquantifiable things we aren’t accounting for.
That being said, let’s look at some of the 2-of-4 guys that stand out as potentially aspirational additions from this group.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
What the framework likes:
Gilbert’s stuff is phenomenal, at a 109 overall (T-8th with teammate Bryan Woo) and specifically, an absurd 141 on his splitter and a 110 on his slider. He also gets high marks for strikeout rate, sitting at an above-average 26.5%. While it’s not an official criterion, he’s also one of MLB’s preeminent control artists, regularly running one of the league’s best walk rates.
What gives me pause:
Gilbert missed two months last season with a flexor strain, going down after six starts and not returning until June. He also sports a strikeout rate against righties that is nearly 12% lower than against lefties, barely maintaining over the 20% threshold at 20.7%.
Why he might move:
Gilbert’s making $10.9M in the third of four arbitration years, preparing to head to free agency after the 2027 season. The Mariners are rumored to be open to moving one of their six starters for offensive help; the two most expensive are Gilbert and veteran Luis Castillo, who carries a $21.6M salary. Gilbert’s capable of getting them a much larger return, based on his performance edge over Castillo (4.93 ERA), who is more in the ‘salary dump’ territory.
Would I do it?
Just like Cavalli, it’s not the team’s preferred move, and so it’ll be pricey, but I would if the opportunity arose. The only hard part here is that the Mariners likely want offensive upgrades, and other than a resurgent Ha-Seong Kim, an MLB-for-MLB trade between contenders might be difficult to pull off unless outfielder Mike Yastrzemski can get hot enough for Seattle to be interested in some sort of package deal with a prospect sweetener by Atlanta.
Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates
What the framework likes
Ashcraft quietly cleared three of our four categories, thanks to a 27.0% strikeout rate, excellent results the third time through the order, and above-average Stuff+. While he doesn’t have one overwhelming carrying tool, there’s very little weakness in the profile.
What gives me pause
He’s still relatively unproven, with just one full season of major-league success under his belt, and Pittsburgh has a lot of club control remaining. This isn’t a rental or even a “motivated by raising arbitration salaries” situation.
Why he might move
The Pirates have reportedly been looking for offense without significantly increasing payroll, which creates an interesting possibility. Atlanta happens to have an expensive middle infielder in Ha-Seong Kim who could immediately upgrade Pittsburgh’s lineup while helping offset some of Ashcraft’s long-term value. That’s still a difficult trade to envision, but at least there’s a baseball conversation to be had.
Would I do it?
Absolutely. This is the type of upside play worth making if the Pirates are genuinely willing to discuss controllable pitching.
Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers
What the framework likes
Honestly...it’s Jacob deGrom.
Even at 38 years old, he still misses bats, carries premium Stuff+, and remains one of the few pitchers in baseball capable of taking over a postseason series by himself.
What gives me pause
Everything else.
Health remains part of the conversation every season, and the remaining money on his contract is enormous. If Texas decides to sell, they’ll almost certainly be trying to move salary as much as talent.
Why he might move
This only becomes realistic if the Rangers completely collapse over the next two weeks. At that point, eating part of deGrom’s contract to improve organizational flexibility becomes at least worth discussing.
Would I do it?
If Texas is willing to absorb some of the remaining salary, yes. There simply aren’t many pitchers in baseball with deGrom’s October ceiling.
Those are the dream scenarios, and I classified them as “aspirational” for a reason. They’re conversations every contender should make, even if they ultimately go nowhere.
The more interesting question is who sits one tier below that.
Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels
What the framework likes
Detmers checks two boxes immediately: strikeout ability and premium Stuff+. Left-handed hitters have essentially no chance of hitting for power against him, and his slider remains one of the better swing-and-miss pitches in the American League.
What gives me pause
The inconsistency has never completely gone away. Detmers can look like a frontline starter one outing and a back-end arm the next, and that’s part of why he’s still in Anaheim instead of being viewed as untouchable.
Why he might move
The Angels rarely operate like a rebuilding club, but another disappointing season (and an interim GM) could force them to listen on players entering arbitration. Detmers still has upside, which means the acquisition cost would likely reflect what he could become more than what he currently is.
Would I do it?
Yes, given that Atlanta likely believes it can unlock another level. This feels like a classic Braves pitching-development bet, and we just saw this pay off with Victor Mederos.
Peter Lambert, Houston Astros
What the framework likes
This is the sneaky one.
Lambert only appears on one leaderboard, but it’s arguably the most interesting one: he owns one of baseball’s best third-time-through-the-order wOBA marks. That’s difficult to do anywhere. It’s especially difficult while pitching at a righty-friendly park like Houston’s Daikon Park.
What gives me pause
Everything else about the profile is fairly ordinary. He doesn’t overpower hitters, and that 83.3% strand rate might be doing a LOT of the lifting here (and it’s the type of thing that’s bound to regress over a long-enough sample).
Why he might move
Because the Astros are going through it.
They’ve already dumped the contract of Lance McCullers onto the Milwaukee Brewers, who already improved him through some pitch mix and usage tweaks. If they continue to look for pieces to move, you can do worse than getting Lambert.
Would I do it?
As a depth addition? Absolutely.
As the impact starter Anthopoulos described? No.
A Few Other Names Worth Monitoring
Michael Soroka: The reunion everyone would immediately talk themselves into. He only appears on one of our four leaderboards, but Atlanta knows him better than anyone, and familiarity matters at the deadline.
Dustin May: The stuff has never been in question. Health has. If the Cardinals surprisingly pivot toward selling their expiring deals, May immediately becomes one of the more intriguing upside plays available.
The Decision
The framework was never going to hand the Braves one perfect answer.
The pitchers who check every box are not moving. Several of the best realistic fits would require Atlanta to surrender significant prospect capital, take on salary, or convince another contender to weaken its own roster. The more attainable options all come with some sort of compromise.
That is what this deadline ultimately comes down to.
Not whether Alex Anthopoulos can find a flawless starter. He’s not guaranteed to find anyone, never mind a flawless starter.
It is whether he can identify the flaw Atlanta is best equipped to live with.
Maybe that means accepting Detmers’ inconsistency in exchange for swing-and-miss upside. Maybe it means betting on Lambert as a lower-cost depth option while continuing to pursue something bigger. Maybe it means taking on deGrom’s salary or paying a premium in prospect capital for someone like Ryan, Gilbert, or Ashcraft.
Those are very different moves because they solve very different problems.
A depth starter helps Atlanta survive August.
An impact starter changes the way the Braves line up in October.
Anthopoulos has already told us which one he wants. The next two weeks will determine whether the market gives him a chance to get it.
The Brewers and Aramis Ramirez
Lindsay: please do not take this too harshly. I love your stuff, but you are delusional if you think the Pirates would trade Ashcroft for Kim.
I tend to always look at the opportunity that we're likely to pursue For all the usual reasons, and of those, Michael Soroka looks the best.