The conclusions in this article are right on target. Acquiring pitchers in the FA market or by trading prospects carries too much risk given the frequency of pitching injuries in today’s MLB. The days of a stable 5 man starting rotation being the foundation of a successful season are gone. A deep, flexible staff, including bullpen and minor leaguers, are the key to success in today’s game. Good starting pitching still matters a lot, but look around the league… what rotation is staffed by proven starters with minimal history of injuries? Red Sox and Cubs come the closest, but it’s not the ‘90’s anymore. The Braves have the right approach - use top draft picks on pitchers and focus on development and build a deep staff.
If you define a quality starter as 125 IP with a sub-4.00 ERA, the Cubs are the only team in the MLB that had 3 last year. The WS winner had one and the AL champs had two. The game evolves and changes. Winning in 2026 takes a deep, flexible staff and a team that is in the top 10 in scoring runs.
I dove into this issue a little deeper because of all the online noise and comments about acquiring another starter. We’ve all been noticing the trends in pitching staffs (rise in pitching injuries, declining SP IP, increase # of pitchers needed during the season, very expensive SP FA contracts). The game continues to evolve… it really struck me when I heard Mickey Lolich passed away… great pitcher in late ‘60’s / early ‘70’s, primarily for the Tigers. He pitched 3 complete games in the 1968 WS and was the MVP. In 1971, he pitched 376 innings. That’s more than the workload of 2 healthy SPs in today’s game.
Yeah, the Cubs having one 30+ game starter and four more 20+ game starters plus a 15-game starter was wild. But even they used thirteen different starters, although four of them were openers
Taylor, I’m with you on this. Just read some of the Red Sox articles and you can see how concerned those that cover them are with the Sonny Gray acquisition. Not worth the cost, IMO. Really excited to see what happens this year!
It’s a fine-line between penny-pinching and being prudent. I’m hard-pressed to think any SP free-agent or acquisition makes sense. I like Suarez… here’s the math on his FA contract: 5 yrs, $130 milllion. He’s averaged just under 140 innings over the past 5 years with last yr being the most IP at 157. Let’s assume he pitches 140 innings over his contract. Bosox are paying almost $186k per inning and they’re on the hook to pay > $25 million when he’s 35. Is it being cheap not to sign him or being prudent? Peralta would’ve been awesome, but Mets gave up 2 of their top 6 prospects for one-year of Peralta’s service. Too conservative or prudent to pass on Peralta?
I agree completely that going after Gray, Bassitt, or Giolito would be foolish. Now if AA had landed someone like Freddy Peralta, Ranger Suarez, or McKenzie Gore we could expect something really good in return. Lots of money? Sure. But AA et al have already proven what penny pinching does when it comes to signing proven winners like Freeman, Swanson, and Fried. If you really want to win you have to pay to play. As things are shaping up now, I would bet Lopez will be disappointing either as an SP or RP and we will be looking at young arms from Gwinnett to blossom while hoping Schwellenbach and Waldrep can contribute in the second half. Doesn't sound like a play-off team to me. Hope I'm wrong.
The problem is this. They aren’t giving the opportunity to those young arms. Instead, they are wasting time with Bryce Elder in the rotation. They foolishly are stuck on starting Lopez and Holmes instead of optimizing them as bullpen arms. We don’t yet know if Spencer Strider will be back to his 2023 form, or if he’s just going to be a solid mid rotation arm this year. The ONLY sure thing in the rotation is Chris Sale.
Sonny Gray is a sure thing. He would be Atlanta’s #2 starter right now, bumping Strider and his decline in velocity to #3. He would bump Elder out of the rotation and likely off the team. This would have allowed them to optimize both Lopez and Holmes instead the pen when Schwellenbach and Waldrep return.
It’s fine if you want to look towards the future and hope that one of those young arms actually pans out. However, the Braves have a window of opportunity that is getting smaller for them to be able to compete for a championship, and they are currently not doing anything to pursue that championship within this window.
The Braves absolutely did not do enough, anything really, to address the starting rotation.
Here’s the thing—I think this argument ignores what the Braves are actually doing and what they’ve already proven they can do.
First off, the idea that they “aren’t giving young arms a chance” just doesn’t hold up. This is the same organization that fast-tracked guys like Strider, Schwellenbach, and even brought up Didier Fuentes at 20. They’ve shown over and over again that if a young arm is ready, they’ll use him. I am not sure Schwell or Strider ever made it to top 100 prospects lists because they were promoted through the minors so fast.
Bryce Elder? He’s not being “wasted time”—he’s exactly what he’s supposed to be: a solid number five starter. Every contender needs that. Not everyone in your rotation is an ace. A majority of Elder's starts were quality starts. Elder will post every 5 days and most of the time go at least 6 innings while allowing 3 or less most of the time. Elder has value on the Braves team this year.
As for Lopez and Holmes, saying they should just be bullpen arms ignores how good they’ve been as starters. Holmes especially—you can’t even fully quantify how valuable he’s been. That’s not something you just move to the bullpen unless you absolutely have to. Load management may push Lopez to the pen when Schwell gets back, but that is not an indication of Lopez's quality as a starter.
Now on Strider—yeah, the velocity dip is real. But this is a guy who has already made adjustments at every level and dominated. Strinder created himself as a pitcher. If there’s anyone you trust to figure it out, it’s him. Even if he’s not 2023 Strider, he can still be a top-end starter.
And calling Chris Sale the “only sure thing” is risky. Talent-wise, sure. But health-wise? That’s never a guarantee. Even the Braves had to help him reinvent himself analytically last year. Remember the bad streak Sale was on last year and some teammates helped him out of it. The players who were key to this was Schwell and Holmes.
Sonny Gray would be great—no argument there. But you’re talking about giving up multiple prospects and paying $20 million. That’s not nothing. The Braves clearly value their depth and internal options, and honestly, they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt there.
Also, the idea that they’re not going for it? Come on. This is a top payroll team that’s locked in long-term talent across the roster. Just because they didn’t go out and drop $150–200 million on a free agent doesn’t mean they’re not committed to winning. It seems to be a running narrative that if a team doesn't but a huge free agent the team is not, 'all in.' The results for last year hinged on the Braves hitters all having their career worst years at the same time and losing a historic number of 1 run games. It was not a lack of investment from the team or care about a contention window. Remember how everyone was going crazy about the pen? This year they invest in the pen and now everyone is up in arms about starters. Next year it may be the pen again.
At the end of the day, this isn’t a team ignoring its window—it’s a team trusting its system. And given their track record with pitching development, that’s not exactly a crazy bet. This team has been to play offs how many years in a row till last year and I expect them to compete this year. These kind of takes about the team is like they haven't been to the playoffs in years or won in all in decades.
Elder has been such a valuable player for the Braves. It is amazing how many fans under rate what he has done for this team. He will again be good and provide the quality innings the Brave need him to in 26. This may be the last 3 months or so for him as a Braves starter. I hope we can all enjoy what he provides for the team we all love.
You’re throwing ERA and WAR out there without context, and that’s missing a big part of the picture.
Over the last two seasons (2024–2025), Elder has made 38 starts and thrown 206 innings. That’s not a spot starter—that’s real rotation volume. In 2025 alone, he made 28 starts and threw over 156 innings. That’s a full-season workload.
Elder has been responsible for a meaningful share of the Braves’ starter innings and starts. You don’t hand that kind of workload to someone who “has nothing good.” How many other Braves starters have had 28 starts last year or 38 the last two years? These starts have mattered and were needed and if not Elder who was ready then to take these starts?
Now look at role vs expectation. You’re evaluating him like he’s supposed to be a #1 or #2 starter. He’s not—he’s a back-end guy. And in that role, eating 150+ innings matters. Every contender needs guys who can take the ball every 5 days and keep the bullpen from getting destroyed.
Compare him to other #5 starters across MLB:
Most sit in the 4.80–5.50 ERA range
Are inconsistent start-to-start
Don’t reach 25+ starts or 140+ innings
Get shuffled in and out of the rotation
Elder, on the other hand, is giving you durability and consistent turns, which a lot of teams don’t even have at that spot.
And here’s the part stats don’t show well: usage. If you’ve actually watched his starts, you’ve seen the pattern—he’ll give you 5–6 innings of workable baseball, then gets left in too long and the line blows up late. That turns a 3 ER outing into 5 ER. That inflates ERA in a way that doesn’t fully reflect how he pitched most of the game.
On value: even if you call him roughly a ~1 WAR pitcher over that stretch, you’re getting that at basically league minimum salary. Replacing 150+ innings on the open market costs real money.
Is he inconsistent? Yes.
Is he dominant? No.
But a guy giving you 30 starts, 150+ innings, and keeping you in games often enough absolutely has value—especially over a long season.
That’s not “useless.” That’s a back-end starter doing his job. And compared to what most teams get from their #5, it’s exactly what you need.
Elder will probably be pushed out of the rotation by mid season. Till then he has been the starter the Braves needed. For years now.
The conclusions in this article are right on target. Acquiring pitchers in the FA market or by trading prospects carries too much risk given the frequency of pitching injuries in today’s MLB. The days of a stable 5 man starting rotation being the foundation of a successful season are gone. A deep, flexible staff, including bullpen and minor leaguers, are the key to success in today’s game. Good starting pitching still matters a lot, but look around the league… what rotation is staffed by proven starters with minimal history of injuries? Red Sox and Cubs come the closest, but it’s not the ‘90’s anymore. The Braves have the right approach - use top draft picks on pitchers and focus on development and build a deep staff.
If you define a quality starter as 125 IP with a sub-4.00 ERA, the Cubs are the only team in the MLB that had 3 last year. The WS winner had one and the AL champs had two. The game evolves and changes. Winning in 2026 takes a deep, flexible staff and a team that is in the top 10 in scoring runs.
That might be a great start to a newsletter
I dove into this issue a little deeper because of all the online noise and comments about acquiring another starter. We’ve all been noticing the trends in pitching staffs (rise in pitching injuries, declining SP IP, increase # of pitchers needed during the season, very expensive SP FA contracts). The game continues to evolve… it really struck me when I heard Mickey Lolich passed away… great pitcher in late ‘60’s / early ‘70’s, primarily for the Tigers. He pitched 3 complete games in the 1968 WS and was the MVP. In 1971, he pitched 376 innings. That’s more than the workload of 2 healthy SPs in today’s game.
Yeah, the Cubs having one 30+ game starter and four more 20+ game starters plus a 15-game starter was wild. But even they used thirteen different starters, although four of them were openers
Taylor, I’m with you on this. Just read some of the Red Sox articles and you can see how concerned those that cover them are with the Sonny Gray acquisition. Not worth the cost, IMO. Really excited to see what happens this year!
It’s a fine-line between penny-pinching and being prudent. I’m hard-pressed to think any SP free-agent or acquisition makes sense. I like Suarez… here’s the math on his FA contract: 5 yrs, $130 milllion. He’s averaged just under 140 innings over the past 5 years with last yr being the most IP at 157. Let’s assume he pitches 140 innings over his contract. Bosox are paying almost $186k per inning and they’re on the hook to pay > $25 million when he’s 35. Is it being cheap not to sign him or being prudent? Peralta would’ve been awesome, but Mets gave up 2 of their top 6 prospects for one-year of Peralta’s service. Too conservative or prudent to pass on Peralta?
I agree completely that going after Gray, Bassitt, or Giolito would be foolish. Now if AA had landed someone like Freddy Peralta, Ranger Suarez, or McKenzie Gore we could expect something really good in return. Lots of money? Sure. But AA et al have already proven what penny pinching does when it comes to signing proven winners like Freeman, Swanson, and Fried. If you really want to win you have to pay to play. As things are shaping up now, I would bet Lopez will be disappointing either as an SP or RP and we will be looking at young arms from Gwinnett to blossom while hoping Schwellenbach and Waldrep can contribute in the second half. Doesn't sound like a play-off team to me. Hope I'm wrong.
The problem is this. They aren’t giving the opportunity to those young arms. Instead, they are wasting time with Bryce Elder in the rotation. They foolishly are stuck on starting Lopez and Holmes instead of optimizing them as bullpen arms. We don’t yet know if Spencer Strider will be back to his 2023 form, or if he’s just going to be a solid mid rotation arm this year. The ONLY sure thing in the rotation is Chris Sale.
Sonny Gray is a sure thing. He would be Atlanta’s #2 starter right now, bumping Strider and his decline in velocity to #3. He would bump Elder out of the rotation and likely off the team. This would have allowed them to optimize both Lopez and Holmes instead the pen when Schwellenbach and Waldrep return.
It’s fine if you want to look towards the future and hope that one of those young arms actually pans out. However, the Braves have a window of opportunity that is getting smaller for them to be able to compete for a championship, and they are currently not doing anything to pursue that championship within this window.
The Braves absolutely did not do enough, anything really, to address the starting rotation.
Here’s the thing—I think this argument ignores what the Braves are actually doing and what they’ve already proven they can do.
First off, the idea that they “aren’t giving young arms a chance” just doesn’t hold up. This is the same organization that fast-tracked guys like Strider, Schwellenbach, and even brought up Didier Fuentes at 20. They’ve shown over and over again that if a young arm is ready, they’ll use him. I am not sure Schwell or Strider ever made it to top 100 prospects lists because they were promoted through the minors so fast.
Bryce Elder? He’s not being “wasted time”—he’s exactly what he’s supposed to be: a solid number five starter. Every contender needs that. Not everyone in your rotation is an ace. A majority of Elder's starts were quality starts. Elder will post every 5 days and most of the time go at least 6 innings while allowing 3 or less most of the time. Elder has value on the Braves team this year.
As for Lopez and Holmes, saying they should just be bullpen arms ignores how good they’ve been as starters. Holmes especially—you can’t even fully quantify how valuable he’s been. That’s not something you just move to the bullpen unless you absolutely have to. Load management may push Lopez to the pen when Schwell gets back, but that is not an indication of Lopez's quality as a starter.
Now on Strider—yeah, the velocity dip is real. But this is a guy who has already made adjustments at every level and dominated. Strinder created himself as a pitcher. If there’s anyone you trust to figure it out, it’s him. Even if he’s not 2023 Strider, he can still be a top-end starter.
And calling Chris Sale the “only sure thing” is risky. Talent-wise, sure. But health-wise? That’s never a guarantee. Even the Braves had to help him reinvent himself analytically last year. Remember the bad streak Sale was on last year and some teammates helped him out of it. The players who were key to this was Schwell and Holmes.
Sonny Gray would be great—no argument there. But you’re talking about giving up multiple prospects and paying $20 million. That’s not nothing. The Braves clearly value their depth and internal options, and honestly, they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt there.
Also, the idea that they’re not going for it? Come on. This is a top payroll team that’s locked in long-term talent across the roster. Just because they didn’t go out and drop $150–200 million on a free agent doesn’t mean they’re not committed to winning. It seems to be a running narrative that if a team doesn't but a huge free agent the team is not, 'all in.' The results for last year hinged on the Braves hitters all having their career worst years at the same time and losing a historic number of 1 run games. It was not a lack of investment from the team or care about a contention window. Remember how everyone was going crazy about the pen? This year they invest in the pen and now everyone is up in arms about starters. Next year it may be the pen again.
At the end of the day, this isn’t a team ignoring its window—it’s a team trusting its system. And given their track record with pitching development, that’s not exactly a crazy bet. This team has been to play offs how many years in a row till last year and I expect them to compete this year. These kind of takes about the team is like they haven't been to the playoffs in years or won in all in decades.
There is nothing that is good or quality about Bryce Elder.
Elder has been such a valuable player for the Braves. It is amazing how many fans under rate what he has done for this team. He will again be good and provide the quality innings the Brave need him to in 26. This may be the last 3 months or so for him as a Braves starter. I hope we can all enjoy what he provides for the team we all love.
He’s had a 6.42 and 5.30 ERA in the past two years. He has a combined -1.1 WAR.
You’re throwing ERA and WAR out there without context, and that’s missing a big part of the picture.
Over the last two seasons (2024–2025), Elder has made 38 starts and thrown 206 innings. That’s not a spot starter—that’s real rotation volume. In 2025 alone, he made 28 starts and threw over 156 innings. That’s a full-season workload.
Elder has been responsible for a meaningful share of the Braves’ starter innings and starts. You don’t hand that kind of workload to someone who “has nothing good.” How many other Braves starters have had 28 starts last year or 38 the last two years? These starts have mattered and were needed and if not Elder who was ready then to take these starts?
Now look at role vs expectation. You’re evaluating him like he’s supposed to be a #1 or #2 starter. He’s not—he’s a back-end guy. And in that role, eating 150+ innings matters. Every contender needs guys who can take the ball every 5 days and keep the bullpen from getting destroyed.
Compare him to other #5 starters across MLB:
Most sit in the 4.80–5.50 ERA range
Are inconsistent start-to-start
Don’t reach 25+ starts or 140+ innings
Get shuffled in and out of the rotation
Elder, on the other hand, is giving you durability and consistent turns, which a lot of teams don’t even have at that spot.
And here’s the part stats don’t show well: usage. If you’ve actually watched his starts, you’ve seen the pattern—he’ll give you 5–6 innings of workable baseball, then gets left in too long and the line blows up late. That turns a 3 ER outing into 5 ER. That inflates ERA in a way that doesn’t fully reflect how he pitched most of the game.
On value: even if you call him roughly a ~1 WAR pitcher over that stretch, you’re getting that at basically league minimum salary. Replacing 150+ innings on the open market costs real money.
Is he inconsistent? Yes.
Is he dominant? No.
But a guy giving you 30 starts, 150+ innings, and keeping you in games often enough absolutely has value—especially over a long season.
That’s not “useless.” That’s a back-end starter doing his job. And compared to what most teams get from their #5, it’s exactly what you need.
Elder will probably be pushed out of the rotation by mid season. Till then he has been the starter the Braves needed. For years now.
That’s some serious red and blue glasses you are looking through to make those statements.