Do the Braves Need to Go All-In on Starting Pitching This Winter?
Atlanta’s top-end health concerns and thin rotation depth leave little margin for error heading into 2025
Atlanta’s starting rotation is among the best in the league.
The problem? They haven’t actually been on the field very much this season.
The Braves' starting five on Opening Day, plus injury returner Spencer Strider, while all having their periodic struggles, have been pretty good this year. Those six have a combined ERA of 3.62, which would be good for 5th in baseball. They led the entire league last year with a 3.49, fractions of a run better than the Seattle Mariners.
But of course, it’s not that simple, because the Braves have used more than just those six starters this season. The thirteen actual starters they’ve used (plus three relievers working as openers) in the team’s 119 games played entering Wednesday night have an actual ERA of 4.43, good for just 22nd in baseball. They’ve been even worse since the All-Star Break, with Atlanta’s team ERA of 5.95 being second-worst in baseball, behind only the Colorado Rockies.
And the main culprit is injuries - all six primary starters have missed time due to injury, with all but one spending time on the 60-day injured list.
Chris Sale: IL60 with a fractured ribcage (55 days and counting)
Reynaldo López: IL60 with shoulder surgery (137 days and counting)
Spencer Strider: IL10 x2 with elbow surgery, hamstring (51 days)
Spencer Schwellenbach: IL60 with broken elbow (45 days and counting)
Grant Holmes: IL60 with a UCL strain (17 days and counting)
AJ Smith-Shawver: IL60 with Tommy John surgery (76 days and counting)
All six of those starters are under control for next season, although Smith-Shawver won’t be back as he rehabs his Tommy John surgery and Grant Holmes likely won’t, either.1
But with the four returners all having injury and effectiveness questions, how aggressive does Atlanta need to be with their rotation this winter? Let’s talk about it.
Reasons to be confident in everybody coming back
There is a clear avenue to forecasting better health out of most of next season’s returners - the sheer flukiness of their injuries.
Chris Sale injured his ribcage while diving to field his position in the 9th inning of a complete game shutout bid; after 116 pitches, he had gotten 26 of the 27 required outs, but a single by Brandon Nimmo prompted manager Brian Snitker to send out closer Raisel Iglesias for the final out in Atlanta’s 5-0 win over the New York Mets.
Spencer Schwellenbach’s fractured bone in his elbow, while not as fluky as Sale’s injury, is still not an incredibly common injury. He’s not expected to return this season but should make a full recovery well before the team meets for spring training in North Port next February.
Reynaldo López is the only one with an injury that I don’t think can be described as a “fluke” - after 17-day stays on the injured list last season for forearm inflammation and shoulder inflammation, the shoulder finally caught up with him. Going on the injured list after just one start, López had an exploratory arthroscopic procedure to “clean out” the joint on April 1st, but no structural damage was detected. Theoretically, this could have resolved the lingering issue and he’d be back to full-go next spring.
Reasons to be hesitant about having everyone next season
Of course, it won’t be everyone. AJ Smith-Shawver is not expected back until at least the second half of the season (and I’m personally thinking that’ll likely be limited to minor league rehab starts). Grant Holmes is attempting non-surgical rehab of his UCL injury, but is open to a repair if needed; it’s a safer course of action to assume he’s not available for 2026 and be pleasantly surprised if you get him.
Even if all four are healthy, that’s not enough to get through a full season without major reinforcements. And with all four arms, there are reasons to question whether or not they’ll be back to themselves and/or available for the entire season.
For Sale, 2024 was his first healthy season since 2018 and even then, he missed the postseason after back spasms caused him to be shut down for the final weeks of the season.
For Schwellenbach, while his injury is one that shouldn’t recur, he believes it’s due to his attempt to increase his fastball velocity over the summer. Even if that is not the case, with that knowledge in the back of his mind, how much does he push himself over the course of the winter and early next season?
And for López, he’s now started just 26 of a potential 55 starts since joining the team prior to last season. Does the organization decide that he’d better maintain his health if they move him back into a bullpen role?
What internal options do they have?
There are players who can make starts in the organization, but I don’t know how many of them are legitimate options for a rotation spot versus just spot starters that can fill in here and there.
Under “realistic” options, I’d count Hurston Waldrep and Joey Wentz as of today, although Davis Daniel might work himself back into that conversation. Maybe some of the young prospect depth proves they’ve earned a chance to make their MLB debut - I’m thinking about Blake Burkhalter, JR Ritchie, and Jhancarlos Lara2 mostly, although Ian Mejia’s a candidate as well. There’s also some non-40-man options, namely Ian Anderson and converted relievers Jackson Stephens and Josè Suarez, but again, unlikely to hold down a rotation spot for a full season, just spot starters at best.
But there’s a difference in a prospect making their debut and proven, trusted depth. Can a team with designs of getting back into postseason contention, let alone World Series contention, fill in for likely injuries with non-debuted prospects and intend to remain competitive? I don’t think they can. While it’s possible one prospect might shine when called up and stick in the rotation - think 2024 Spencer Schwellenbach - it’s also likely they take multiple seasons to finally get the consistency, health, and workload capacity to hold a rotation spot - think AJ Smith-Shawver.
That means additional reinforcements are needed.
The free agency class is stacked
Here’s a non-exhaustive list of starters projected to be in the free agent market this winter, courtesy of MLB.com:
Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, Michael King (mutual option, which are almost always declined), Jack Flaherty (opt-out), Justin Verlander, Jordan Montgomery, Shane Bieber (player option), Shota Imanaga (club option/player option), Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Brandon Woodruff (mutual option), Zach Eflin, Kodai Senga (opt-out), Ranger Suárez, Chris Bassitt, Walker Buehler (mutual option), Jon Gray, Merrill Kelly, Dustin May, Tyler Mahle, Freddy Peralta (club option), Nick Martinez, Lucas Giolito (club option), Aaron Civale, Charlie Morton, Michael Lorenzen (mutual option)
Think the Braves can sign two guys out of that group? They’ll need to try.
My expectation (hope?) is that Atlanta grabs two starters from this group. There are a lot of different forms this can take - do they use this season’s CBT reset to grab one of the top four starters (Cease, Gallen, Valdez, King) and then backfill with a mid-rotation arm like Martinez or Civale? Or, do they try and grab one mid-rotation guy from the back half of this group and go for a ‘buy low’/reclamation project in a Dustin May or Michael Soroka?
Either way, I think it’s clear that Atlanta needs multiple starters in free agency this offseason. The questions that we need answered are:
Will the Braves be aggressive in free agency this winter?
Which aisle will they shop in?
Do they supplement their free agency with any trades?
We know they’ll have money to spend - I haven’t quite gotten my payroll tracker to square with the ones from FanGraphs or Cot’s Contracts, but it’s clear either way that there will be money available. Will Atlanta spend, or are we in for another winter of austerity?
As we get closer to the offseason, I’ll start breaking down the free agent options more specifically (focusing on contract projections and their performance) as well as available trade targets. Let me know in the comments if there’s a specific pitcher you want me to break down!
Holmes is attempting non-surgical rehab of his UCL injury but has already confirmed he will have Tommy John surgery soon after the winter if it does not respond to treatment
IF they keep Lara as a starter - I’m not sure if he went to the bullpen midseason as a workload management technique or if they reversed course based on team needs
Good article.
Pitching is so key, especially in tight division races and the playoffs. Folks who exude optimism over the return of some or all of Atlanta's injured starters may be in for big frustrations. Strider's return was heralded as the start of great things - he has been mediocre at best, and, lately, a batting practice thrower for the opposition. Maybe he will improve, maybe not. Sale is getting long in the tooth. Old power pitchers can be fragile - I hope he wins another Cy but I sure wouldn't bet on it. Lopez is really a big question mark - so the surgery showed "no structural damage" meaning further rehab was the only option. He broke down after a whole winter of rehab - we should be hopeful he comes back strong but what basis do we really have for that hope? Schwellenbach's injury was a true gut punch - he was settling into the roll of a true elite pitcher. His injury didn't require surgery but who's to say (again as a power pitcher) his elbow doesn't break down half way through 2026?
My point is: how can the AA et al NOT sign at least one stud starting pitcher? I would vote for an all-out effort to sign Ranger Suarez. He's money and we wouldn't have to watch him dominate the Braves every time he pitches against them.
Thanks for the thorough write-up on starting pitching options for 2026. Glad you included Ritchie and Waldrop because if both break out we'll save a lot of money rounding out the staff. Until they get hurt, too.
There's a tendency to overreact to memorably awful circumstances. Braves management is still thinking out loud about how many catchers they went through in 2021. This year's injury toll on starters will surely scar memories. Throwing money at the position may or may not be the solution. I'd pose a more difficult question.
Is the attrition rate among pitchers today something which must be considered and addressed in some new way in our player acquistion and development? This may call upon medical advice and analysis, as well as one of your areas of expertise, pitching science. Do certain pitches, sequences, turns of the wrist, shoulder or elbow, combined with innate physical traits, velocities, training regiments, etc. make injuries less likely in some than others? How do we scout for this?
I'm old enough to remember Early Wynn and Warren Spahn pitching well enough to win 300 games (many complete) every fourth day; the legion of imitators of Hoyt Wilhelm and Phil Niekro hoping to do Hall of Fame-worthy work into their 40's; and the theories and practices of Mike Marshall and Leo Mazzone. I just don't have solutions, because my only idea, a 95mph speed limit on pitches, is less likely to occur before the day when it's imposed on autonomous electric vehicles. What say you?