Pitching is so key, especially in tight division races and the playoffs. Folks who exude optimism over the return of some or all of Atlanta's injured starters may be in for big frustrations. Strider's return was heralded as the start of great things - he has been mediocre at best, and, lately, a batting practice thrower for the opposition. Maybe he will improve, maybe not. Sale is getting long in the tooth. Old power pitchers can be fragile - I hope he wins another Cy but I sure wouldn't bet on it. Lopez is really a big question mark - so the surgery showed "no structural damage" meaning further rehab was the only option. He broke down after a whole winter of rehab - we should be hopeful he comes back strong but what basis do we really have for that hope? Schwellenbach's injury was a true gut punch - he was settling into the roll of a true elite pitcher. His injury didn't require surgery but who's to say (again as a power pitcher) his elbow doesn't break down half way through 2026?
My point is: how can the AA et al NOT sign at least one stud starting pitcher? I would vote for an all-out effort to sign Ranger Suarez. He's money and we wouldn't have to watch him dominate the Braves every time he pitches against them.
Yes, but -- certainly not for more than 22 AAV, which seems to be our voluntary salary cap. Today's injury odds should lower what MLB pays for long term commitments to starters unless we have positive proof that a guy's body and pitching style invites fewer injuries. Meanwhile, If Schwellenbach turns out to be another in the Soroka, Wright, Anderson sequence of heartbreaks it really is time to re-evaluate how we're developing pitchers.
Well stated, but....how DO you get 'positive proof' that a guy's body will hold up? With Suarez, I'm not aware of any major arm issues and he doesn't depend on a radar read of 99. Lots of off-speed, control, and savvy. But, who knows? A pitcher's arm can be the most fickle mistress in sports.
Yeah, it's almost safe to assume that every pitcher will get hurt and miss some amount of time. Makes the decision to sign a starter long-term a bit questionable, although the Dodgers have enough money to do it and not worry about it
Thanks for the thorough write-up on starting pitching options for 2026. Glad you included Ritchie and Waldrop because if both break out we'll save a lot of money rounding out the staff. Until they get hurt, too.
There's a tendency to overreact to memorably awful circumstances. Braves management is still thinking out loud about how many catchers they went through in 2021. This year's injury toll on starters will surely scar memories. Throwing money at the position may or may not be the solution. I'd pose a more difficult question.
Is the attrition rate among pitchers today something which must be considered and addressed in some new way in our player acquistion and development? This may call upon medical advice and analysis, as well as one of your areas of expertise, pitching science. Do certain pitches, sequences, turns of the wrist, shoulder or elbow, combined with innate physical traits, velocities, training regiments, etc. make injuries less likely in some than others? How do we scout for this?
I'm old enough to remember Early Wynn and Warren Spahn pitching well enough to win 300 games (many complete) every fourth day; the legion of imitators of Hoyt Wilhelm and Phil Niekro hoping to do Hall of Fame-worthy work into their 40's; and the theories and practices of Mike Marshall and Leo Mazzone. I just don't have solutions, because my only idea, a 95mph speed limit on pitches, is less likely to occur before the day when it's imposed on autonomous electric vehicles. What say you?
The main way to try and address it has been just overwhelm the system with as many arms as possible (the Dodgers strategy) - I feel like the issue with trying to back off on stuff and velo is you're at a disadvantage unless everyone does it. It's a prisoner's dilemma
The Dodgers strategy is great for hedge fund owning management. Since they're smart enough to engineer money machines, I'll bet they're trying to answer the questions I posed scientifically. Most medical challenges are answered by science, historically.
Good comments. I remember listening to the game (1961?) when Warren Spahn and Juan Marichal locked up in a classic duel in Candlestick Park, each pitching shutout ball for 16 innings, until the game ended on a Willie Mays HR. The next day, Spahn did his usual routine, THROWING LONG-TOSS! With all the Dodger's pitcher injuries, Dave Roberts has commented that, "We really don't have a good understanding of what's happening". Starting pitchers are going fewer innings with more injuries. John Smoltz has some thoughts.
To me, it depends on resources and priority. Even counting out Holmes and AJSS, I count 9 names as possible starters (and with older arms, I would guess all 9 would get starts and a few others as well).
As of this morning, Ozzie Albies has the 2nd worst OPS in all of MLB among qualified starters, only ahead of K. Bryan, who at least is a gold-glove level fielder. Baseball Savant has Albies as having saved zero runs on the season, second to last on the Braves, which I assume means he is a bad fielder.
That means you can make an argument that he is the worst starter in all of MLB. I would get a second baseman before I would get a starter. (And I think you have made the case that you can find second basemen at reasonable prices).
Yeah, I do agree it's much easier to find a second baseman than it is a shortstop. I still think you need at least one starter, preferably a Frontline one, but it all depends on how much money they want to put into this and if they're willing to pop a qualifying offer or not
Good article.
Pitching is so key, especially in tight division races and the playoffs. Folks who exude optimism over the return of some or all of Atlanta's injured starters may be in for big frustrations. Strider's return was heralded as the start of great things - he has been mediocre at best, and, lately, a batting practice thrower for the opposition. Maybe he will improve, maybe not. Sale is getting long in the tooth. Old power pitchers can be fragile - I hope he wins another Cy but I sure wouldn't bet on it. Lopez is really a big question mark - so the surgery showed "no structural damage" meaning further rehab was the only option. He broke down after a whole winter of rehab - we should be hopeful he comes back strong but what basis do we really have for that hope? Schwellenbach's injury was a true gut punch - he was settling into the roll of a true elite pitcher. His injury didn't require surgery but who's to say (again as a power pitcher) his elbow doesn't break down half way through 2026?
My point is: how can the AA et al NOT sign at least one stud starting pitcher? I would vote for an all-out effort to sign Ranger Suarez. He's money and we wouldn't have to watch him dominate the Braves every time he pitches against them.
Yes, but -- certainly not for more than 22 AAV, which seems to be our voluntary salary cap. Today's injury odds should lower what MLB pays for long term commitments to starters unless we have positive proof that a guy's body and pitching style invites fewer injuries. Meanwhile, If Schwellenbach turns out to be another in the Soroka, Wright, Anderson sequence of heartbreaks it really is time to re-evaluate how we're developing pitchers.
Well stated, but....how DO you get 'positive proof' that a guy's body will hold up? With Suarez, I'm not aware of any major arm issues and he doesn't depend on a radar read of 99. Lots of off-speed, control, and savvy. But, who knows? A pitcher's arm can be the most fickle mistress in sports.
Yeah, it's almost safe to assume that every pitcher will get hurt and miss some amount of time. Makes the decision to sign a starter long-term a bit questionable, although the Dodgers have enough money to do it and not worry about it
Exactly. It's amazing how the Dodgers have a star pitcher go down and the next day they bring up some flame thrower nobody has ever heard of.
Thanks for the thorough write-up on starting pitching options for 2026. Glad you included Ritchie and Waldrop because if both break out we'll save a lot of money rounding out the staff. Until they get hurt, too.
There's a tendency to overreact to memorably awful circumstances. Braves management is still thinking out loud about how many catchers they went through in 2021. This year's injury toll on starters will surely scar memories. Throwing money at the position may or may not be the solution. I'd pose a more difficult question.
Is the attrition rate among pitchers today something which must be considered and addressed in some new way in our player acquistion and development? This may call upon medical advice and analysis, as well as one of your areas of expertise, pitching science. Do certain pitches, sequences, turns of the wrist, shoulder or elbow, combined with innate physical traits, velocities, training regiments, etc. make injuries less likely in some than others? How do we scout for this?
I'm old enough to remember Early Wynn and Warren Spahn pitching well enough to win 300 games (many complete) every fourth day; the legion of imitators of Hoyt Wilhelm and Phil Niekro hoping to do Hall of Fame-worthy work into their 40's; and the theories and practices of Mike Marshall and Leo Mazzone. I just don't have solutions, because my only idea, a 95mph speed limit on pitches, is less likely to occur before the day when it's imposed on autonomous electric vehicles. What say you?
The main way to try and address it has been just overwhelm the system with as many arms as possible (the Dodgers strategy) - I feel like the issue with trying to back off on stuff and velo is you're at a disadvantage unless everyone does it. It's a prisoner's dilemma
The Dodgers strategy is great for hedge fund owning management. Since they're smart enough to engineer money machines, I'll bet they're trying to answer the questions I posed scientifically. Most medical challenges are answered by science, historically.
Good comments. I remember listening to the game (1961?) when Warren Spahn and Juan Marichal locked up in a classic duel in Candlestick Park, each pitching shutout ball for 16 innings, until the game ended on a Willie Mays HR. The next day, Spahn did his usual routine, THROWING LONG-TOSS! With all the Dodger's pitcher injuries, Dave Roberts has commented that, "We really don't have a good understanding of what's happening". Starting pitchers are going fewer innings with more injuries. John Smoltz has some thoughts.
On the side:
What a pleasure its been to watch the young Augusta Greenjacets this year. Last night they banged out 19 hits and 13 runs
Hartman, Carey, John Gil that Jones kid now in Rome. Not a lot of power yet. But running wild.and stealing 40-50 bases each.
Plus now they've got 3rd rounder Miller at 3rd and 4th rounder Williams at 2nd.
Why can't we have a team like this is Low A every year ? Kinda like the Dodgers organization.
Great article.
To me, it depends on resources and priority. Even counting out Holmes and AJSS, I count 9 names as possible starters (and with older arms, I would guess all 9 would get starts and a few others as well).
As of this morning, Ozzie Albies has the 2nd worst OPS in all of MLB among qualified starters, only ahead of K. Bryan, who at least is a gold-glove level fielder. Baseball Savant has Albies as having saved zero runs on the season, second to last on the Braves, which I assume means he is a bad fielder.
That means you can make an argument that he is the worst starter in all of MLB. I would get a second baseman before I would get a starter. (And I think you have made the case that you can find second basemen at reasonable prices).
Yeah, I do agree it's much easier to find a second baseman than it is a shortstop. I still think you need at least one starter, preferably a Frontline one, but it all depends on how much money they want to put into this and if they're willing to pop a qualifying offer or not